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Transcript of V trust appraisal market updates
PROPERTY MARKET
UPDATES
1
By Hoem Seiha,
Director of Research
H/p: 012-699-553 | [email protected]
Website: www.vtrustappraisal.com
Table of Contents
I. Cambodia’s Economic Overview
II. Phnom Penh Overview
III. Commercial Sector
IV. Residential Sector
V. Borei Housing
VI. Serviced Apartments
VII. Condominium Development
VIII.Land Price Updates
IX. Bank Credit Absorption by Sectors
X. Property Outlook
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Cambodia’s Economic
Overview
“Cambodia’s economic growth remains strong despite domestic uncertainty and instability in neighboring countries and is projected to reach 7.2 percent by end of 2014.”
Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Sodeth Ly (2014), World Bank
3
Demographics
• About 1.69 million is the number of Phnom Penh Population (National Institute of Statistics).
• Other informal estimates say the population could be
more than 2 million.
• Population average growth rate is about 4% y-o-y (Word Bank).
• The population density is about 5,343 inhabitants per square kilometer in recent years (Wikipedia).
6
Incomes of Population 8
$102 $106 $100 $107 $136
$498 $480 $443 $462
$587
3%
-5%
6%
28%
-4%
-8%
4%
27%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013*
(*) Preliminary results
Source: National Institute of Statistics; Graphed by Park Cafe
Disposable Income in Phnom Penh (Average Value per Month)
Per Capita Per Household
Change (%), per capita Change (%), per household
Commercial Real Estate 10
• Commercial property market has been growing strong
since the last few years, with the supply of major
commercial development centers such as Sovanna Mall,
Canadia Tower, Phnom Penh Tower, and lately the
Ratannac Tower and AEON shopping mall as well as the
soon-coming Parkson Mall.
• About 275,000 sqm is the the total supply of retail
property in 2015, contributed hugely by the coming of
AEON Mall (Retail Market Phnom Penh, Sept 2014,
CBRE).
Retail Sector 11
It is estimated that about 300,000 sqm
of retail space is slated for the market supply
by the end of 2016 (Retail Market Phnom
Penh, Sept 2014, CBRE).
Office Center
About 190,000 sq.m of office space
has supplied into Phnom Penh office market
since 2012, as no more supply has been
added to the market in the last few years
(Phnom Penh Market Review, March 2014,
CBRE).
12
Residential Market Overview
• Demand for villas and shop houses within ‘borey’ developments remains strong, driven principally by Cambodian nationals able to take advantage of staggered payment options and in-house finance schemes.
• Shop houses, comprising upper floor residential accommodation and ground floor retail space continue to be a popular option for Cambodian nationals, due to their relative affordability and the option of using the unit for business purposes in addition to residential accommodation.
Source: CBRE Residential Market Review (Dec, 2014)
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Housing Demand
“10,000 is the number of families from other provinces moving to Phnom
Penh every year.”
Lao Tip Seiha, director of the department of construction at the Ministry of Land Management, Urban
Planning and Construction, as quoted by the Phnom Penh Post, 2011
Therefore, housing demand is therefore estimated at a modest figure of
10,000 units every year (Phnom Penh Post, 2015).
110 is the number of registered “borey” development projects, both
complete and under construction (Ministry of Land Management, Urban
Planning and Construction, 2015).
Housing demand is also driven by a shifting trend from extended to
nuclear family and increase of newly-married couples every
year as a result of baby boom.
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Median Price per Sqm (Built-up Area)
$550 $616
$738
$1,393
$805
$1,128
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Single-storey
Flat
Double-storey
Flat
Linkhouse Shophouse Twin Villa Single Villa
Average Price per Sqm (Built-up Area)
Median Price per Sqm (Built-up Area)
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Source: Century 21 Rattanka
Phnom Penh’s Apartment Market 2014
There are almost 400 apartment buildings,
the majority of which are small and family-
run apartments.
Source: VTrust Report on Apartment Market (2014)
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Supply & Demand
About 3,500 is the number of high grade
serviced apartment units offered for rent in
Phnom Penh in 2014.
This market is driven by about 50,000 of
foreigners living and working in Phnom Penh.
Source: VTrust Report on Apartment Market (2014)
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Phnom Penh
Condominium Market
• The existing market supply reached 13 completed condo
projects with about 3,090 condo units as of fourth quarter of 2014, and many more condo units are expected to be ready for buyer occupants in the following years.
• By 2018, the total supply projected to be ready for owners will
reach about 18,000 condo units. Currently, there are 30 condo projects, and 18 projects are under construction.
• More than 15 other condo projects was announced in the first
of half of 215, slated for an additional supply almost 8,000units by 2018.
Source: Century 21 Cambodia; Additional Reporting by VTrust Appraisal
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24Condo Development Status
Finished21%
Under Construction
75%
Behind schedule4%
Status of Condominium Developments as of 1st Half of 2015
Source: VTrust Appraisal
Recent Condo Projects
There are about 10 other condominium projects announced by the developers in the first half of 2015. These are some of them:
1. Sovann Condo Project
2. Monorom Condo Project
3. The Bay Condo Project
4. The Peak Condominium
5. TK Royal One
6. La Vie Condo Project
7. Sky Villa Tower
8. East One Condominium
9. Bodaiju Residences
10. Sun City, Tonle Bassac
11. Etc.,
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Phnom Penh Land Prices
About 15% is the average growth rate of
land prices in Phnom Penh from 2013 to
2015.
27
Bank Deposits from Private Sector
US$
8.81Billion
2014
US$
6.88Billion
2013
14.2% yoy
30.6% yoy
Sourc
e: W
orl
d B
ank;
Cam
bodia
n A
uth
ori
ties
Bank Credit Absorbed by Sector
19%
Construction
& Real Estate
10.4%
Agriculture
35.9%
Wholesale
& Retail
Sourc
e: W
orl
d B
ank;
Cam
bodia
n A
uth
ori
ties
9.6%
Manufacturing
Residential Outlook
Residential market demand is primarily
driven by:
• especially on “borey” housing, the increase of
newly-married couples every year in
Phnom Penh
• About 10,000 new family entries into Phnom
Penh every year
• Rising of disposable income levels of
Phnom Penh Population
33
Commercial Outlook
Our projection for the long run in the commercial
real estate sector by the next 5 years will grow by
double, as bolstered by the second AEON mall in
Phnom Penh Thmey. This estimation is based on:
• Increase of establishment registrations every year, thus boosting the need for office space.
• The increase of income levels of the population
boost the need for mid-to-high-end consumer
products, thus driving retail sector.
34
External Impacts
• However, the recent crash of China’s stock market has
resulted in negative impacts on Chinese-reliant economies
in other countries, potentially including the U.S.
Serafino, Phil, 21 July 2015: China's Aftershock Ripples
Through Sales of Cognac to Ore. Bloomberg.
• This might also has a negative impact on property market
in Phnom Penh, as Chinese investments in construction is
recorded at US$1.4 billion in the first four months of
2015.
(Phnom Penh Post, Aug 2015: Mixed blessing from China’s
stock market crash)
35
Thanks for your Time
Contact#113 (Parkway Square) Mao Tse Tong Blvd., Phnom Penh, Cambodia |
H/p: (855)12-699-553
Office: (855)23-220-098
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.vtrustappraisal.com
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