Using Wave-Driven Upwelling Pumps To Enhance The Ocean’s Absorption of CO 2 : Feasible or Fantasy?...
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Using Wave-Driven Upwelling Pumps To Enhance The Ocean’s
Absorption of CO2: Feasible or Fantasy?
Philip W. KithilCEO
Atmocean, Inc.Santa Fe, NM
505-310-2294
Core Questions (For Any Mitigation Alternative)
• Is fundamental concept feasible?• Is it scalable - to make a reasonable dent in
the problem?• Does the technology exist today? Can it be
fielded quickly?• Is it cost effective?• What are possible tradeoffs, & how are these
handled (Governance)?
TopicsTechnical Commercial
1. CO2 Problem
2. The ocean carbon cycle
3. Atmocean wave-driven pumps
4. Operational factors5. Scaling up
1. Finance 2. Governance3. Fishing4. Side effects &
concerns:a) Ecologyb) Maritimec) Life cycled) Societal issues
5. References, Q&A
The CO2 Problem
Reminder:
1 unit C = 3.67 units CO2
Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? (Hansen et.al.)
“Desire to reduce airborne CO2 raises the question of whether CO2 could be drawn from the air artificially. There are no large-scale technologies for CO2 air capture now, but with strong research and development support and industrial-scale pilot projects sustained over decades it may be possible to achieve costs ~$200/tC or perhaps less. At $100/tC, the cost of removing 50 ppm of CO2 is ~$10 trillion.”
In other words, to get ONE PPM reduction requires removing (or not emitting) 2 gigatons of atmospheric CO2.
Branson’s $25 million Virgin Earth Challenge requires removal of 1 gt C each year for 10 years.
Scale & Severity of the CO2 Problem
350
CO
2 (
pp
m)
Stable climate is < 350 ppm – so we are 40 ppm in the RED - And, getting worse (C emissions now ~9 Gt per year).
The Ocean Carbon Cycle & Potential CO2 Absorption
Carbon Cycle: Ocean Annual Flux & Storage
Some Carbon Processors of the Oceans
The Basic Idea
• Deeper ocean is nutrient-rich compared to surface.
• Use kinetic wave-energy to bring these nutrients up to sunlit zone, growing more phytoplankton.
• To metabolize these nutrients, the plankton absorb (dissolved) CO2 and give off O2.
• Enhance the flux of CO2 into the oceans.
How Big Are The Waves?
120 300 400 50051,051,890 38,759,328 31,905,887 25,127,015
Depth of Pump (m), Annual Upwelled Volume (m^3)
Med
ian
How Many Tons C Per Year?
• Madin study – Salps fecal pellets 4,000 t C per 100,000 sq km/60 days (~9 t C/pump/year).
• Karl-Letelier – 2nd, diazotrophic blooms should produce net export of 9.5 t C/pump/year based on 7 m2 pump operating at 120m depth in Pacific waves.
• Lebrato et. al. – gelatinous carcasses litter the seafloor, could be up to 20 t C/pump/year.
• Lebrato et.al. – echinoderms also highly productive in storing carbon on seafloor.
Karl-Letelier Diazotrophic Bloom Predicted C Net Export
Karl DM, Letelier RM, Nitrogen fixation-enhanced carbon sequestration in low-nitrate, low-chlorophyll seascapes, M7547, Mar.Ecol.-Prog.Ser., 364, 257-268, 19 Jun 2008 CE:LT TS:LL PP: doi: 10.3354/meps07547.
15.2
15.5
5.8
2.5
2.9
2.0 1
5.7 3
2.7
41.2
54.5
101.1 1
21.8
141.5
114.9
-
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
100
120
140
160
180
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
750
1000
Net C Units
Depth, m
Net Carbon Sequestered units per cubic meter upwelled
Conversion of Karl-Letelier Net Sequestration According To Wave Kinetic Energy & Pumping Depth
Unknown how much is respired.
Depth 120 300 400 500Volume upwelled per year (mil m 3̂) 51 39 32 25
Net C sequestered per m 3̂, mmol 15.5 32.7 54.5 121.8 Total Net C per year, 10 9̂ mol 791 1,267 1,739 3,060
Kg C per pump per year 9,496 15,209 20,866 36,726 Metric Tons C Per Pump Per Year 9.5 15.2 20.9 36.7
Kg CO2/pump/year 34,821 55,772 76,517 134,673 Metric Tons CO2 Per Pump Per Year 35 56 77 135
Net CO2 Export Per Year For Various Pumping Depths
How Atmocean Wave-Driven Pumps Work
Figure 1a: Tube Version Figure 1b: Tubeless Version
Buoy
Flexible, Buoyant Tube
Multiple Valves
Single Valve In Cylinder
(Patents pending)
Two Pump Models
Deployment Method
10” Diameter Tube PumpTest Results 12-11-05 Bermuda: Atmocean's Wave-Driven Pump
Brings Up Cold Water From 500' Deep
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
12/11/0500:40:44.0 12/11/0501:30:44.0 12/11/0502:20:44.0 12/11/0503:10:44.0 12/11/0504:00:44.0 12/11/0504:50:44.0 12/11/0505:40:44.0 12/11/0506:30:44.0 12/11/0507:20:44.0
Temperature deg. C.
Bottom Temp Inside Tube At Top Outside Tube At Top Surface Temp
Surface=22.5º
<< Temperature loggers on tubetop
At 500’=18.5º
1 hour
30” Diameter Tube Pump
48
51
54
57
60
63
8:25:00
8:30:00
8:35:00
8:40:00
8:45:00
8:50:00
8:55:00
9:00:00
Valve Open -Valve Closed
Temperatures deg F.
Pumping of Cold Water From 500' Depth
Temperature At 500' Depth
Temperature At Ocean Surface
Temperature At Top of Pump
Valve Closed
Valve Open
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
8:27:13
8:27:23
8:27:33
8:27:43
8:27:53
8:28:03
8:28:13
8:28:23
8:28:33
8:28:43
8:28:53
8:29:03
8:29:13
8:29:23
8:29:33
8:29:43
8:29:53
8:30:03
8:30:13
8:30:23
8:30:33
8:30:43
8:30:53
8:31:03
8:31:13
8:31:23
8:31:33
8:31:43
8:31:53
8:32:03
X Accel, g(LGR S/N: 1070733)
Valve action during and after DeploymentSan Diego Test 032207
Deployment ~2 min 10 secopen>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
1ststroke15 s.
subsequent strokes2-10 sec.
open
closed8:29:35
30” Diameter Tube Pump
GPS
Upper unit at 30 m to 50 m depth
Bottom unit at 120m to 150m depth
(Optional) sediment trap at 250m to 300m depth
PLUM Pinpoint, Localized-Effects, Upward Mixing
System
PLUM System - Development
• Tank testing• Simple upward-mixing models• First prototype (round)• Ocean drift test• Improved prototype (rectangular)• Sandia Labs computational fluid dynamics
modeling – ascertain effect of cross currents (Spring ‘10).
PLUM Tank Test
PLUM Ocean Test With GPS
GPS
5 stages,
40’ spacing
180’ total
depth
PLUM “Navigating” Between 2 Islands
GPS
PLUM - Likely Nutrient Mixing Caused By Ocean Currents
Practical Elements
1. Buoy size and shape – large enough, not too large.2. Valve size and area – rotate 90°3. Cable stretch – minimize/cost, flexibility4. Wave minimums – valve dimension5. Wave maximums – buoy submerge6. Deployment techniques – automatic, minimum
handling 7. Stored size & handling – shipping constraints8. Materials – median life - life cycle – non polluting9. Ecological impact – to be tested & verified
So….Operational Details:
The PLUM system seems feasible…
Where do you deploy it? Is it economic, and scalable?
(The devil is in the details)
High Seas - Primary Production(millions km2.…………..mg C m-2 d-1)
2.6 mk2
481 mgC5.2 mk2
463 mgC
7.3 mk2
268 mgC
9.1 mk2
388 mgC
12.3 mk2
352 mgC 14.9 mk2
353 mgC
17.2 mk2
361 mgC
21.9 mk2
301 mgC
10.2 km2
340 mgC
4.6 mk2
401 mgC
6.4 mk2
215 mgC
30.5 mk2
291 mgC
20.1 mk2
274 mgC
24.7 mk2
279 mgC
http://www.seaaroundus.org/eez/highseas.aspx
2.0 mk2 42 mgC
9.2 mk2 229 mgC
EEZ’s and High Seas Areas
http://www.seaaroundus.org/eez/eez.aspx
Scaling Up
Assume 1 PLUM sequesters 10 t C per year. How many PLUM systems are needed to make a difference?
Assumed Percent of Global Equiv CoalPLUM units Sequestration Emissions Plants
10,000 100,000 0.00% 0.12 100,000 1,000,000 0.01% 1.2
1,000,000 10,000,000 0.10% 12 10,000,000 100,000,000 1.00% 122
100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10.00% 1,222 190,891,737 1,908,917,371 USA 2,333
How Scary Are These PLUM Numbers? A Perspective On Scale
The total active pumping area of
100 million pumps, scaled to the oceans, is less than the size of a football kicking tee on a football
field.
A 9,500 TEU containership can
deploy 427,500 pumps per year.
Patent Pending
Large Scale Deployment
8.5’
13’8’
Possible Ports Adjacent To Major Ocean Gyres
Seattle. San Diego. Manzanillo. Bermuda. Las Palmas. Chile. Buenos Aires. Capetown. Mumbai. Perth. Sydney. Manila.
The Plan, The Outcome.
0.16 (195)
0.49 (597)
0.98 (1,201)
1.48 (1,604)
1.97 (2,407)
2 4816
32
64
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Gt Carbon Sequestered
Year
Gt Carbon Sequestered (ECPP*)Containerships Operating
ECPP = equivalent number of coal power plants
Problem Defined.Possible “Quick Fix” Identified.
What about Financing?
And whose hand is on the switch (Governance)?
Partnering & Governance Business Model: Step One
Country desires to become
carbon neutral without
devastating its economy.
CountryLess Carbon
More Jobs
Partnering & Governance Business Model: Step Two
Country signs fixed-price long term contract with Containership
Operator to buy 100% of tons Carbon sequestered by pumps
manufactured within the country, & deployed from country’s ports.
Operator uses the contract to secure commercial loans to
manufacture & deploy pumps.
Each pump generates rev’s over 7 year life, earning ~8x more per
ship-mile compared to Operator’s point-to-point revenue model.
Containerships
Lenders
CountryLess Carbon
More Jobs
CountryLess Carbon
More Jobs
Partnering & Governance Business Model: Step Three
Fishing fleets
Lab: Carbon
Tons Verified
Some pumps come with sediment traps to verify the
carbon flux.
How to recover these?
Country contracts with its high seas fishing vessels.
How to verify the carbon captured in the traps?
Country contracts with independent test labs.
Containerships
Lenders
Partnering & Governance Business Model: Step Four
Oversight by International Maritime
Organization (a UN Affiliate).
If things go wrong or don’t measure up, it has
power to terminate program and require remaining pumps be removed or disabled.
Lab: CO2 Tons
VerifiedContainerships
Lenders
CountryLess Carbon
More Jobs
Fishing fleets
I.M.O.
Are The Incentives Aligned?• Country: Long term fixed carbon price. Gradual off-
ramp to become carbon neutral. Manufacturing jobs. Fishing revival, improved port utilization. Pay-as-you-go cost, no huge upfront financing needed.
• Containership operator: Makes ~8x more per ship mile than at present; zero’s own emissions; leverages existing financing. Great PR (helping save the world).
• Fishing industry: Sustainable harvest, more rev’s.• I.M.O./UN: Known, fixed-cost, controlled path to exit
fossil energy, much less disruptive to global economy. • Elected Officials: Economic & job gains give political
cover. Fixed carbon cost not at whim of market.
Why Private Sector Finance?
• High risk long term investments are not something most governments can do well. Too many competing needs.
• Private sector can manage this on a ROI (return on investment) basis.
• Timely (quick response to CO2 crisis).
Container Operator Financials
$(20,000,000,000)
$(10,000,000,000)
$-
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Financing (Cum. Cash Flow)
Atmocean Maersk QuoteProject 16-Nov
Income 28,211$ 2,928$ Expense 11,993$ 1,080$ EBIT 16,218$ 1,848$ EBIT Factor 8.8
Accrual Basis - per ship mile
Sustainable Ocean Fishing
• Wild fish harvest should double by 2030.
• Sustainable since PLUM constantly replenishes food supply.
• Doubling “protein from the sea” provides a nice meal every day for 542 million people.
Side Effects & Concerns
Ecological Risks
Maritime Risks
Lifecycle Issue
Societal Concerns
Ocean EcologyGeneral Issues
• Upward mixing is natural • What happens with PLUM is
a slightly amplified version of without PLUM.
• Process is proven for 3 billion years.
• Nothing foreign is added to the ocean.
• Effects very local to PLUM.• Reversible if necessary.• Ecological impact study
scheduled for 2010 -2012 will verify net export and ascertain side effects.
Specific Concerns
• Harmful algae blooms.
• Low oxygen regions.
• Effect on ocean pH.
• Effect on food web.
Maritime• VISIBILITY. Each PLUM unit has a GPS (data will be public), is
radar visible, flashing light for nighttime. Planned spacing is 1 kilometer.
• SURFACE APPEARANCE. Deployed in the open ocean hundreds of miles from shore, the only surface part is the buoy riding the waves.
• ENTANGLEMENT. – SURFACE VESSEL. If a direct vessel hit, accelerometer
triggers release of underwater components which sink out of the way. Lose the PLUM, but no damage to vessel.
– SUBMARINE. This is a concern yet to be resolved, as we are not familiar with sonar navigation gear on underwater warships.
– FISHING GEAR OR NETS. Some fishing practices will be forced to change – both long-lines and trawling could become entangled in the PLUM units.
Lifecycle Issues
• Steel is >85% recycled.
• PLUM systems rust to nothing over time (rate can be engineered).
• Production & shipping energy required:
• Sheet metal working (electricity)
• Land shipping, ocean shipping (various fuels)
• Once deployed, near-zero energy consumption.
Societal Concerns• Moral hazard argument:
By sidestepping the root cause you don’t fix the problem.
• When you stop doing the quick fix, environment rapidly will get much worse.
• Business earns profits at expense of global needs.
Country could legislate additional carbon reductions (e.g. match the tons sequestered in ocean, with tons avoided from conversion of fossil energy to renewable power).
Ocean pumps can be slowly withdrawn (we estimate 7% annual loss rate, zeroing in 7 years ).
ROI financial model provides discipline.
Selected ReferencesJames Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana L. Royer, James C. Zachos, Target atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf
Karl DM, Letelier RM , Nitrogen fixation-enhanced carbon sequestration in low-nitrate, low chlorophyll seascapes, M 7547, Mar.Ecol.-Prog.Ser., 364, 257-268, 19 Jun 2008 CE: LT TS: LL PP: doi: 10.3354/meps07547. Mario Lebrato, Debora Iglesias-Rodríguez, Richard A. Feely, Dana Greeley, Daniel O. B. Jones, Nadia Suarez-Bosche, Richard S. Lampitt, Joan E. Cartes, Darryl R. H. Green, Belinda Alker, Global contribution of echinoderms to the marine carbon cycle: a re-assessment of the oceanic CaCO3 budget and the benthic compartments, ESA Preprint doi: 10.1890/09-0553. MADIN, L. P., P. KREMER, P. H. WIEBE, J. E. PURCELL, E. H. HORGAN, AND E. A. NEMAZIE. 2006. Periodic swarms of the salp Salpa aspera in the slope water off the NE United States: Biovolume, vertical migration, grazing, and vertical flux. Deep-Sea Res I 53: 804–819. M. Lebrato and D. O. B. Jones, Mass deposition event of Pyrosoma atlanticum carcasses off Ivory Coast (West Africa). Limnol. Oceanogr., 54(4), 2009, 1197–1209 Polavina, J.J., E.A. Howell, and M Abecassis (2008), Ocean’s least productive waters are expanding, Geophys.Res.Lett., 35, L03618, doi:10.1029/2007GL031745.
Thanks for listening!
Q&A, Discussion
Philip W. Kithil, CEOAtmocean, Inc.Santa Fe, NM
505-310-2294
Seminar AbstractUsing Wave-Driven Upwelling Pumps to Enhance the Ocean's Absorption of CO2: Feasible or
FantasyGiven the further delay in meaningful emissions reductions and other uncertainties produced by
UNFCCC Copenhagen meeting, the need to act against rising atmospheric CO2 levels is even more critical. With atmospheric CO2 now at 390ppm and increasing by ~3-4ppm per year, we will be hard-pressed to stay below the 450ppm which is estimated to result in 2° C. warming. Moreover, a return to 350ppm (thought to be the highest level for a stable climate) can only be achieved by removing CO2 from the atmosphere. The practical approaches to do this in an expeditious manner fall to terrestrial biomass, or the oceans. Enhancing the ocean's role as a natural carbon sink could be accomplished by using wave kinetic energy to generate upwelling of nutrient-rich water, which in the presence of sunlight triggers photosynthesis and growth of phytoplankton, absorbing dissolved CO2 in the process. The increase in primary productivity would allow more atmospheric CO2 to dissolve into the upper ocean. This seminar will also address several mechanisms by which the absorbed CO2 is converted to organic and inorganic carbon which sinks to the mid ocean and seafloor. This presentation embodies a holistic perspective by explaining the economics and path to market, and setting in motion a plan which could remove one gigaton of carbon annually by 2019 and 4.5 gigatons annually by 2030. Finally, international governance and lifecycle issues will be addressed.