Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance

Using the Industrial Internet to Move from Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance

Todays Presenters

Ed Wagner

Vice President,Customers and Solutions

Sentient [email protected]

Lynne Canavan

Program Director, Industrial Internet

Consortium [email protected]

Stephen Steen

Head of Industrial Internet Services,

Sentient [email protected]

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Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015

Overview

1. Overview of the IIC and the business problem IIC solves

2. Sentient on the Industrial Internet – Prognostics and Making Lifing Assessment for Industrial Equipment

3. Renewables Business Case and Outcomes – Moving from PPM to PHM

4. Questions and Summary


The Industrial Internet

Industrial Internet: An internet of things, machines, computers and people…enabling intelligent industrial operations…using advanced data analytics for transformational business outcomes.


The Industrial Internet is Leading the Next Economic Revolution

GDP data extracted from the Futurist 2007


The Impact of the Industrial Internet

General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025.


Yet There are Current Roadblocks to Widespread Adoption

The Industrial Internet: A $32 trillion opportunity

Connectivity

Technology

Standards

Research Academia

Systems Integration

Security

Government

Big Data Industries


The IIC: Things are coming together

Things are coming together.

Technology

StandardsResearch Academia Systems Integration

Security

Government

Big DataConnectivity Industries


Industrial Internet Consortium

MissionTo accelerate growth of the Industrial Internet by coordinating ecosystem initiatives to connect and integrate objects with people, processes and data using common architectures, interoperability and open standards that lead to transformational business outcomes.

• Launched in March 2014 by five founding members:

Community. Collaboration. Convergence.

The IIC is an open, neutral “sandbox” where industry, academia and government meet to

collaborate, innovate and enable.


Our Objectives

• Drive innovation through the creation of new industry use cases and testbeds for real-world applications;

• Enable interoperability by defining and developing the necessary reference architecture and frameworks

• Influence the global development standards process for internet and industrial systems;

• Build confidence around new and innovative approaches to security.• Facilitate open forums to share and exchange real-world ideas,

practices, lessons, and insights;


IIC Members

11

IIC Founder Companies www.iiconsortium.org


Model-based, multi-physics based prognostics computational technologies

and services

Our applications help extend the remaining useful life (RUL) of new and existing

mechanical systems

The newest prognostics health management (PHM) application for

condition-based maintenance (CBM)

Sentient Science is Based on Three Fundamental Capabilities


DigitalClone Prognostic ValidationsRotorcraft • NASA Spur Gear Validation• “Large Bearing Company” Bearing Validation• Apache Spiral Bevel Gear Validation• Actuator Pump Cam Bearing Validation• Rotorcraft Super Gear Validation• Blackhawk Spline Fretting Fatigue Validation• Navy Elastomeric Bearing Validation

Wind Turbine• Clipper Wind Turbine GBX Validation• GE 1.5 Wind Turbine GBX Validation

Automotive, Mining & Others• Planetary Gear System Validation• Differential Assembly – Spiral Bevel Validation• Axle Shaft Bearings Validation• Automotive Structural Materials Validation• Reduction/Axle Hypoid Gearing Validation • Mining Sag Mill Gear Validation• Hip Implant Wear Validation


DigtialClone®

Nucleation & Propagation

<12 months1-3 years3-5 years+5 years


Prognostics on the Industrial Internet


Step 1: Predict the performance and health of your assets, components

and systems from 0-6 years out.

Step 2: Acquire operational data, per fielded asset using

your data system and networks, to tailor service for each individual asset.

Step 3: Confirm prognostic accuracy through advanced

processing, alerts, and reporting tools.

Step 4: Control or optimize assets life through, trade-off

studies, automation, optimization.

Serial Number Model

Part Number

Fleet Model

Sentient - 3rd Generation Life Model

2nd GenerationLife Model

Pro

cess

NO CAPEX$31,0008 weeks

$3.5M CAPEX $323,000

1 year

System Model with 3-5 Top Failure Component Models

Zero$100 in compute time

How to build Life model Cost & Time Value Prop comparison

$20,500Interpreting results difficult

What’s the Business Problem to Solve

• Owner/Operators of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with off warrantee assets– “How long will it really take me to get usable information

regarding my fleet and individual assets?”– How long will these assets produce value?– Will my O&M costs outweigh my financial pro forma?– How can I improve budgeting over 2-5 years?


What’s the Business Problem to Solve?

• OEMs of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with their warrantees– How soon can I find out what my real risk is for assets under

warrantee?– What’s the right balance between reconfigure vs. replacement?– What’s my downside of not providing competitive warrantee

services?– How do I budget to service customers today and into the

future?


Time

Cond

itio

n

Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics

®


Manage the Fleet Through Financial Optimization

Year: 2014

Today

Year: 2011

3.7%

As-Is Failure Profile

Optimized ConditionReduction in % of Failures

Sentient’s services predict the true baseline and impact of maintenance and operational changes.

Life extension or increased AEP by quantifying the impact of:

- Wind conditions- Lubrication change- Turbine re-rating- Uptower replacements- Remanufacturing

- Automated spare parts management


“As Is”

Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, up-tower component replacement, partial de-rating, etc.

“To Be”

Years Until Gearbox FailureYears Until Gearbox Failure

Perc

enta

ge o

f Fle

et F

ailu

re

Perc

enta

ge o

f Fle

et F

ailu

re

Linking Fleet Level Performance to Component Level PerformancePrognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL


April 15, 2023

The Financial Impact of Extending Asset Life

Business Impact of Prognostics

• Prognostics cut cost of the Big Data need to maintain assets– Prognostics vs. Diagnostics

• Dramatically Reduces Time to Value for Asset Health Information– Lifing predictions within 3 months– Impact on new customer acquisition for OEM

• Battle for the Aftermarket – will the Operator or the OEM dominate the aftermarket– Reconfiguration (Owners) vs. Redesign (OEMs)– “What-if” simulations creating significantly more

competition


Sentient Science and the Industrial Internet Wave

General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025.

Industrial InternetUsing the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015

Challenge for Wind Owner/Operators

Failures higher than originally planned during site development.

Assumptions used: – 100 WTG’s– Loan – 18 yr tenor

Approximately 50% of the total cash to equity comes in the last 5 years 0.5 1 1.5 2

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

10.00%

10.50%

11.00%

11.50%

12.00%

12.50%

13.00%

13.50%

14.00%

14.50%

15.00%

GBX Failure / WTG

Cash Flow to Equity Years 15-20 20 year IRR

Cash

Flo

w to

Equ

ity,

Yrs

15-

20 ($

,000

)

20 Y

ear I

RR %

Budgeted Actual*Owners are looking to gain control of cost


Original Pro Forma O&M Plan

Planned Preventative Maintenance (PPM)Pre-planned based on usage or time.

Pro: Almost always ensures proper operation

Con: Expensive and doesn’t address outlier failures


Cannot predict future risk or solutions to reduce it

Improved O&M - First Attempt

Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)Based on known need for maintenance.

Pro: Reduced cost & improved reliability

Con: High upfront cost, monitoring cost & produces false positives


Can only predict short term failure, cannot provide solutions to reduce risk

O&M Solution – Path Back to Pro Forma

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)Predicts future failure to plan and mitigate risk.

Benefits: 1. Little to No Monitoring2. Less Sensors3. Remaining Useful Life

(RUL) Extension 4. Risk Mitigation


Can predict risk years into the future and provide ways to reduce risk through life

extension

DigitalClone LiveAsset Ranking Default Most-at-Risk, Sortable, Filterable …

Asset Map View Risk Level, Interactive, Navigable


Component Risk Failure risk ranking down to the component level for O&M planning (e.g. uptower vs crane)

DigitalClone Live – Component Level


Todays Prognostic Reports

1. “As Is” failure rates at the fleet, site, critical component levels– Watch lists, borescopeing, inventory and supply chain

management– Budgeting

2. Gearbox replacement schedules for forecasting3. “To-Be options to extend life:

– Component replacement– Lubrication and additive impact on life– Duty cycle changes to improve life– “What-if” simulations before taking action

You Can “See” What Diagnostics Can Not Yet See


Asset Prognostics over the Industrial Internet


Predict initial WTG risk for each individual asset

Acquire operational data

(SCADA, vibration, etc.) from individual

WTG

Confirm the WTG prediction to the

data to ensure it is operating as

predicted

Control and optimize the WTG through re-

rating, up-tower component

replacement

Example Prognostics: ROI Optimization

ROI Optimization All trade-offs based on ROI at the individual asset level/group, maximizing ROI for the fleet.


1.5mw WTG – 500 Units

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 $-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$2,000,000.00

$7,000,000.00

$12,000,000.00

$17,000,000.00

$22,000,000.00

$27,000,000.00

$32,000,000.00

$37,000,000.00

$42,000,000.00

$47,000,000.00

$52,000,000.00

AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost

AS-IS Yearly Cost TO-BE Yearly Cost

MW/Hr

Cost

• Through life extension, failures rates can be managed and reduced

• Sentient can provide a significant improvement each year to the failure rates

5 years, $19M savings, 500% ROI


Business Impact

1. Customer 1: Failure rate reduced by +50%– Customer budgeted and planned or 20+ gearboxes for 2014– Through up-tower replacements, derating, etc. actual failures rates reduced

to <10– $5,000,000 cost reduction in budgeting

2. Customer 2: No failures, correctly predicted next gearbox failure– Was able to plan and prepare for gearbox failure in 2014– 2-5 year PHM budgetary plan

3. Customer 3: Identified and confirmed 8 gearboxes on top 20 list not previously known or expected

– 90% correlation with borescope conducted on top 20 gearboxes for exact component of failure

– Crane and service optimization at $70K per crane service, reduced unplanned maintenance


Applying Prognostics on the Industrial Internet

Supply Side Optimization

Using Prognostics

Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization

Fleet Process Optimization

O&M Improvements

SMART GRID

1

2

3

4


Summary

• Sentient’s DigitalClone Live powers the move to Predictive Health Management (PHM) using the Industrial Internet – DoD, Industrial, Energy Use Cases– Demonstrations on request

• IIC is the central organization for pooling technologies, security, architectures, test beds for learning and leveraging best practices– www.industrialinternetconsortium.org– March 24-26, 2015 - Reston, Virginia USA– July 15-17, 2015 – Niskayuna, New York USA– September 14-17, 2015 – Barcelona, Spain– December 7-14, 2015 - La Jolla, California, USA


http://www.industrialinternetconsortium.org/

http://www.iiconsortium.org/members/va-15/index.htm

http://www.iiconsortium.org/members/va-15/index.htm

Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance

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