Using Simulation to Validate Emergency Management Plans

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Using Simulations to Validate Emergency Management Plans

James Rollins, M.Ed.


a little about me• 27 years experience in training and education• Concurrent experience as a military officer with 10 years active duty• Commanded Homeland Response Force• Experience with multiple incident responses including Oso• Deputy Commander of Seattle District Corps of Engineers for Howard

Hanson Dam Rehabilitation Project• Afghanistan 2005

• Experience in education, HR and manufacturing management• Experienced Lean practitioner• Masters Degree in Adult Education – Western Washington University

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Problem with the HSEEP Model• Criterion referenced competency model - Great evaluation

framework• But it is a not a good “Play” framework for staffs• Functional and full-scale exercises are difficult to organize• They are expensive and do not achieve sufficient scale to

adequately validate emergency plans• FSE do not sufficiently test adaptive capacities at local,

regional, state and federal level• FSE are difficult to iterate, repeat, back up and try again.• Computer simulation decision spaces are superior


Discussion Points• When managing the consequences of a disaster, we are working within a complex ecosystem of interactions between multiple “layers” of entities• Collaboration is the primary way we solve problems in a complex environment where nobody can be in charge• Play is indispensable for developing collaboration skills• Simulations enable playing and learning in a manner that helps participants to develop trust and empathy

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Complexity

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Transportation Layer

Complexity can be

thought of as layers.

Each interacting inside and

in between each other all at once. Cyber - Communications Layer

It is complicated!So, how do we effectively work together?


Adaptive Management• Communicative Planning versus Command and Control• Different from rational – reductive planning• Typically used in multiple jurisdiction, multiple agency, multiple function incident responses• Purpose is problem solving• Just-in-time collaborative organization• Just-in-time planning oriented• Relies on experimentation


Initial IncidentCommandMeeting

TacticsMeeting

PreparefortheTacticsMeeting

Command &General StaffMeeting

IncidentCommander&StaffDevelop/UpdateObjectivesMeeting

IncidentBrie ng(useICS-201)

Initial ResponseandAssessment

Noti cations

Initia

lRes

pons

e

BOOM!

Preparefor thePlanning Meeting

PlanningMeeting

Prepare&ApproveIncidentActionPlan

OperationsBrie ng

ExecutePlanAnd AssessProgress

NewOperationalPeriodBegin

5 Factors for Effective Collaboration•Recognize and communicate common vulnerabilities• Involve everyone that has “A dog in the fight.”•Use good problem solving tools•Replace belief with knowledge•Maintain and environment of trust


Trust


Recognize and communicate common vulnerabilities• Immediacy• Magnitude• Risk requires an emotional response


Involve everyone that has “A dog in the fight”

• Group diversity is essential to enhance problem solving• Include everyone associated with the problem• Helps to fully understand the complexities of the

problem (versus reducing or distilling the problem)• Pay me now or pay me later . . .


Use good problem solving tools• Rules to correct power imbalances within the group• Cognitive map• Value chain• Common perspective is often the most inclusive

perspective


Replace belief with knowledge• Belief is the acceptance of something as the truth

without a basis of fact• Knowledge is the acceptance of something as the truth

on the basis of fact or direct experience• Experimentation – scientific method• Modeling


Maintain an environment of trust• Trust is the knowledge that each member of the group is

dependable and will deliver on expectations• Everyone must be concerned with the problem and

share the vulnerability• People involved must be committed to solving the

problem• People and the agencies they represent must have a

track record of results that demonstrate their competence• Notice that all of these are observable behaviors?

Reasons Why Play is Indispensable• Play is the basis for human

trust, adaptive behavior and acceptance of risk• Play signals• Simulation play is play• Nothing lights up the brain

more than play


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f3rOz0NzPc


Use simulations to facilitate play• Use predictive models• End-to-end

visualization of the ecosystem• Ability to interact with

the variables in order to change initial conditions and see how they play out• See where bottlenecks

arise

Predictive ModelsComputer Aided Simulations• Systems dynamics modeling• Agent modeling• Hybrid models


Stock•Resource•Has a Potential

Flow

Feedback

Flow dynamics follow a simple

mathematical relationship

that represents a rate of flow

such as “consumption

”

Agents are individual

entities that follow

behavioral rules. Often used to load

systems models

Visual - Interaction


Below: players interact with panels to input decisions

Above: the decisions interact and are played forward on a end-to-end visual

To summarize• It’s complicated! The interactions in, and in-between layers are complex and difficultto predict • Collaboration is the primary tool we use to address systemic problems• Play is necessary to develop trust• Simulations are a more effective staff training tool than full-scale or functional exercises.


GA

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Using Simulation to Validate Emergency Management Plans

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