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Using Scenarios in the Using Scenarios in the California Water PlanCalifornia Water Plan

Uncertain Trends

0

10

20

30

40

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Historical

Curent Trends

Less ResourceIntensive

More ResourceIntensive

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Water Plan Scenarios Water Plan Scenarios Represent Baseline ConditionsRepresent Baseline Conditions

● Plausible during planning horizon under consideration

● Influence future water management decisions

● The water community has little control over

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Uncertainties Affecting California Uncertainties Affecting California Water Management Water Management

● Future climate change● Vulnerable flood management system● Severity of the next drought● Collapsing Delta ecosystem● Growing population● Invasive species

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Update 2009 Update 2009 Scenario ActivitiesScenario Activities

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Scenarios Organized Scenarios Organized Around UncertaintyAround UncertaintyEconomic

and Financial

Institutional and Political

Natural Systems

Technology

Cultural Practices

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Discussed Scenario QuantificationDiscussed Scenario Quantification

Update 2005

Update 2009

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A Scenario Analysis Has Four Key ElementsA Scenario Analysis Has Four Key Elements

Exogenous Factors (X) Management Levers (L)

Uncertain factors outside of the control of water managers — Basis for “Scenarios”

Water management options — “Response Packages”

Relationships (R) Performance Measures (M)

Mapping between combinations of exogenous factors (X) and levers (L) to outcomes (M) — a “Model”

Water outcomes of interest

X, L MR

X, L MR

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Advisory Committee Advisory Committee Explored Scenario ThemesExplored Scenario Themes

● “CHALLENGING CONDITIONS” scenarios “Cascading Catastrophes” “Armageddon” “World Falls Apart” “Gloom and Doom”

● “OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK” scenarios “Optimal Multiple Benefits” “Eureka!” “Native Control” “Blue Skies”

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Draft Assumptions and Draft Assumptions and Estimates ReportEstimates Report

● http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae

Includes narratives for 3 scenarios

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Scenario Storylines Scenario Storylines

● Scenario 1 – Current Trends● Scenario 2● Scenario 3

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Scenario 1Scenario 1Current TrendsCurrent Trends

● Recent trends continue for the following: Population growth and development patterns Agricultural and industrial production Environmental water dedication and protection

● Climate Change consistent with IPCC and Climate Action Team (Middle Projections)

● Improved regional water management, but lacking statewide integration

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Scenario 2Scenario 2● Population growth lower than current trends● Higher housing density● Higher agricultural and industrial production● More water for the environment● Climate change follows less severe

projections● Improved regional water management with

statewide integration

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Scenario 3 Scenario 3

● Population growth higher than current trends● Lower housing density● Steeper decline in agricultural land● Less water for the environment ● Climate change follows more severe

projections● No additional regional water management

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Activities for TodayActivities for Today Discussion of storylinesDiscussion of storylines

● Are the storylines logical?● Are they plausible?● Will they help us examine management

responses?● Are there relevant theme-based names?

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Next Steps on ScenariosNext Steps on Scenarios

● Refine scenarios narratives using comments on Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report (copies available)

● Work through SWAN to refine scenario quantification within WEAP

● Initial scenario quantification for Update 2009 Public Review Draft (December)

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Reference InformationReference Information

● Draft Assumptions and Estimates for Update 2009 http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae Includes narratives for 3 scenarios

Rich Juricich juricich@water.ca.gov (916) 651-9225

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Questions?