Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of

Green Parties

Lasse Cronqvist

Institute of Political Science

University of Marburg (Germany)

This presentation

This presentation will... use QCA style analysis to find conditions of success of green parties in the 80s

... use a modification of QCA which allows the use of multi-valued conditions

... start with a few conditions and add further conditions after the study of contradicting configurations

Why Multi-Value QCA

QCA uses dichotomized values

Some data can only be dichotomized with a substancial loss of data

+ nominal data might be better operationalized with non-dichotomized conditions (e.g. G. Esping-Andersens „Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism“)

Example

Example

MVQCA

The use of multi-value scales may result in configurations closer to original data and be used to reduce contradictions in the truth table

But: Do not overdo: Using too many categories will „individualize“ the configurations Few minimisations possible

MVQCA

MVQCA works exactly like QCA, except:

1. Use of set notation (A{0}, B{1}, C{2}, etc.)2. Minimisation is only possible if all values

combined with the shorter expression share the outcome value

QCA: ab + Ab b with A dichotomousMVQCA: A{0}B{0} + A{1}B{0} + A{2}B{0} B{0}

possible values for A: {0,1,2}

Success

Intention: Determination of conditions of success of Green Parties in the 80s

So far: No coherent explanations on varying success of Green Parties

But how to code „Success“?

Success (2)

Some authors: 4% ThresholdAbove: Success, Below: No success

But: If the electoral threshold is set at 5%, a party winning 4.9% of votes will not consider itself as „successful“

Here: Success if party was elected into parliament on a sustainable basis winning more than just one or two seats.

Success (3)

Success = 1

Success = 0

Possible Conditions

Well known statements on the success of Green Parties

1. New parties are disadvantaged in majority vote systems

2. Postmaterialism

Possible Conditions (2)

Elec = 1

Elec = 0

GNP = 2

GNP = 1

GNP = 0

Truth Table

Sufficient causes for the outcome 0 are found, but:• Not all cases with outcome 0 are explained• No case with outcome 1 is explained

Further Conditions?

Cleavage-Theory by Stein Rokkan.

Political conflicts are found in every society, but special circumstances are needed to create a cleavage with influence on the party system

Is there an ecological cleavage? If yes: Which ecological questions are strong enough to found this cleavage?

Casestudies on Germany & Sweden:

Maybe nuclear policy?

Nuclear Power Policy

Population density

MVQCA Solutions

Green parties were successful where necessary institutional (proportional elections) and socio-economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density).

MVQCA Solutions

1. a majority vote system

2. low GNP / cap.

3. low or medium population density combined with the absence of nuclear power plants

... are all sufficient conditions for the absence of successful green parties

Remarks

Things to remember...Iceland: No successful Green Party, but:

„Womens alliance“France: EP elections

MVQCA QCA

Green parties were successful where necessery institutional (proportional elections) and socio-economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density).

Using this information we can convert the solution to a purely dichotomous QCA solution

Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of

Green Parties

More Information:

http://www.tosmana.org/oxford2006