using megatrends to ensure the future success of your business

frederic de meyer founder

frederic@i4fi.com

www.i4fi.com

www.fredericdemeyer.com

let’s start with a challenge: what do these have in common?

here’s a hint…

Ford almost got out of business in the early

1900’s for sticking to it standardized products

In 2002 Barbie lost its market predominance to a new competitor who just entered this

market the year before

Until 2006 Coca Cola was boycotted

multiple times in India due to its water

mismanagement practices

GM’s Hummer saw sales drop 85% from

2006 to 2009

sometimes long-term shifts can have short-term consequences!

but megatrends offer concrete opportunities as well

Tata’s Nano-car specifically designed for rising middle class

in India

Siemens reorganization aligns

each business unit to a challenge linked to

megatrends

Google.org philanthropic activities

mixes core product with social good

Crowdsourcing, desintermediation and

open innovation are creating complete

new industries

so why understanding and assessing megatrends is crucial for the future of your

business?

one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...

an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend

before we start… what are megatrends exactly?

a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend

and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends

look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences

ageing population

health care need to prepare for massive elderly

population with specific needs

utilities adapt services to specific needs of

elderly

entertainment/leisure need to prepare for specific needs and

time of retired people

retail need to adapt to changing consumption

patterns

governments need to find a solution for worsening

worker/retired ratio

finance/insurance specific offering for elderly people

manufacturing needs to find solutions for skills gap/

talent shortage

education needs to develop specific programs to

keep elderly at work

impact obvious

impact less obvious

transport public transport need to adapt to needs

of elderly population

marketing elderly people will keep at work through

crowdsourcing.?

look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences

desintermediation

retail shops did loose some business already through

direct selling/ ecommerce

health care „peer-to-peer‟ health provision projects

arise in US

IT services „do it yourself‟ concepts are getting

mainstream

music industry some fan-funding models have gone

broke, others getting successful banking peer-to-peer lending growing from

800m$ to 3b$ this year

Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized

advise?

head hunting recruitment websites and social media

are being used for talent search

impact obvious

impact less obvious

marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation

eating away share

Governments direct redistribution of wealth?

it‟s the crucial first step to ensure your future success

1. Megatrend exercise 2. Business Model

innovation 3. Strategy execution

generate strategic

ideas make strategic

decisions make strategy

work

Mega trends

in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many areas of your business…

external

internal

new competitors

new business models

new needs of customers

new customer segments

new talents and competencies

new marketing mix

new ecosystems new go-to-

market models new production

processes

megatrends

…and there are plenty megatrends to take into account…

how to assess the impact of megatrends on your company and draw meaningful

conclusions for your business strategy

here‟s a simple process to assess the impact of megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends internally

#3 draw conclusions and recommendations

#4 Communicate results internally and externally

#1 identify Megatrends to discuss

Mega trends

but the devil is in the detail…

guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company

Mega trends

• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious impact on your industry or company… the most successful ideas for innovation will come from elsewhere;

• get your ideas and selection from a combination of internal (survey) and external (consultants) input;

• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to discuss.

guidelines for discussing trends in your company

• Invite people with different background, functions and seniority

• follow a discussion template (though don’t stick to it);

• take notes during the discussion;

• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;

• also look at anti-trends;

• keep it fun !

guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends discussions

• segment the trends so as to show which ones need action or a close monitoring

• map the way megatrends impact your customer segments and stakeholders

guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the megatrends exercise

• Set up different documents dependent on

target group and aim:

long-term shifts do have a short term effect… prepare your business

now!

website www.i4fi.com blog www.fredericdemeyer.com mail frederic@i4fi.com Phone +32 478 68 13 08

do you want to use megatrend assessments to ensure the future success of your company? Get some help…

° thought-provoking opening keynote for your strategic planning session

° train you on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company

° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise

° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the

light of megatrends

discover more… … in depth coverage of the impact of 20 megatrends on

industries and companies; … more than 10 case studies … full details and best practices on the megatrend-exercise

Available in Dutch at Die Keure Business & Economics publishers www.business-economics.be ISBN: 978 90 4861 210 9

English version available on Amazon.com in December (send me an e-mail at frederic@i4fi.com if you want to get notified when the book becomes available)

“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur, and anyone who is involved in innovation strategies.” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation "It's a challenge to design a great strategy. In an world with constant information overload, leaders have to learn to separate the core from the noise. Megatrends will help you get this job done. This book will give you all necessary insights to identify those themes that are crucial for the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, author of “Strategy Execution Heroes” “Looking at the future with an open mind is an essential ingredient of leadership. This book has the merit of enabling this competence in a very pragmatic way. The reality is too complex and dynamic to leave it to specialized bureaus and top management to deal with. Sustainable companies have all their employees aligned to a common view of the future” Koen Marichal, Director The Future Leadership Initiative, Antwerp Management School “This book is an excellent overview of the major trends, but on top of that offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guideline for any strategy exercise” Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble “A clear and comprehensible summary of the major trends that makes you think about adapting your corporate strategy to the new reality” Ralph Van Lysebeth, Country Manager, Packard Bell

Preliminary reactions to the book:

Available

in English

as from

November

“The impact of megatrends on your company”