Using Load Research Data Analysis to Using Load Research Data Analysis to Determine Number of Electric Heating Determine Number of Electric Heating

CustomersCustomers

AEIC Load Research Committee Meeting

Marco Island, Florida

June 10, 2002

Rick A. Voytas

Manager-Corporate Analysis

Ameren Services

Senior Management’s Request

A count of residential electric A count of residential electric heating customers, and if heating customers, and if

possible, provide a breakdown by possible, provide a breakdown by type of electric heat.type of electric heat.

Three Ways to Track Heating Usage?

» Customer Information System»CIS

»CSS

» Transformer Load Management (TLM)

»tracks a “heat code” for each residential meter

» AMR System Load Snapshot»gathers a snapshot of individual customer demand during peak time load periods

Issues with Obtaining Information From Traditional

Sources

» Customer Information SystemCustomer Information System»CIS-electric heating codes have not been maintained

»CSS-does have an electric heating premise but it is unsupported

» Transformer Load Management (TLM)Transformer Load Management (TLM)»does not create heat saturation tape for CIPS

»cannot differentiate the different types of electric heating

» AMR System Load Snapshot (SLS)AMR System Load Snapshot (SLS)» can only be used for AmerenUE customers

»cannot differentiate the different types of electric heating

Issues with Obtaining Information From Traditional

Sources

» Both SLS and TLM can be used to track electric heat

but

Does not cover the whole company (just AmerenUE) and neither has the ability to differentiate the different types of electric heat

Let’s Review the Situation

» Customer Information SystemCustomer Information System»CSS-no

»CIS-no

» Transformer Load ManagementTransformer Load Management»yes but not for CIPS

»AMR System Load SnapshotAMR System Load Snapshot»yes but not for CIPS

So What Can We do to Determine How Many

Electric Heating Customers Ameren has???

Utilize our existing residential load research

customers

How?How?

1. Develop a demographic survey for RES load research sample

2. Identify RES LR sample customers by heating type

3. Determine winter/summer energy ratios for RES sample

4. Expand to RES population

Our Approach Using Load Research Our Approach Using Load Research DataData

Demographic SurveyDemographic SurveyThese questions concern the areas of greatest energy use in your home. Please check all equipment youhave in your home.

Electric central air conditioningNumber of units Size if known: TONS

Window unit air conditionersNumber of units Size if known: BTUs

Electric whole house furnace (also known as electric resistance furnace)Size if known: KILOWATTS

Electric baseboard heating throughout the home Number of linear feet

Electric heat pumpNumber of units Size if known: TONS Electric backup heating Natural gas or other backup heating

Electric space heaters used regularly in the winterNumber of unit Size if known: WATTS

Ground source (also known as Geothermal) heat pumpSize if known: TONS

Electric water heaterCapacity if known: GALLONS

Electric clothes dryer Electric cooking range Electric over Microwave Other, less common appliances (please specify):

DRAWING ENTRY FORM

Complete and return this entry form along with your completedsurvey. Drawing entry forms must be accompanied by the

household's completed survey form.

Enter me in the drawing to receive reimbursement of my highest electricbill during Summer 2001 (one-month's energy and basic servicecharges incurred during regular period between June 2, 2001 andAugust 1, 2001.

Name: ____________________________________________

Address: _________________________________________

City/State/Zip: ______________________________________

Daytime Telephone Number: ( ) _____________________

Entry CardEntry Card

Completing the survey made each family eligible for a drawing to receive a check for the amount of their highest electric bill

during Summer 2001

ResponsesResponses

About 50% of the load research customers returned a completed response

All TerritoryResistance

FurnaceHeat Pump Baseboard Geothermal

Heat Pump22% 14% 14% 1%Based on sample of

141 Load ResearchSample points

Utilizing the Demographic Survey

» Separated each customer by electric and non-electric Separated each customer by electric and non-electric heating and further by their type (baseboard, heating and further by their type (baseboard, resistance, or heat pump)resistance, or heat pump)

» Using LodeStar calculated winter/summer ratios for Using LodeStar calculated winter/summer ratios for each customereach customer

»Winter (December, January, and February)Winter (December, January, and February)

»Summer (June, July, and August) Summer (June, July, and August)

»Using LodeStar’s Load Analysis Subsystem (LAS) Using LodeStar’s Load Analysis Subsystem (LAS) each category was ran as a 100% sample to calculate each category was ran as a 100% sample to calculate each customers winter and summer kilowatt-houreach customers winter and summer kilowatt-hour

@

@

Results from Survey

» winter/summer ratio > 1.32 = Electric winter/summer ratio > 1.32 = Electric Heating Heating CustomerCustomer

»winter/summer ratio <= 1.32 = Non-Electric winter/summer ratio <= 1.32 = Non-Electric Heating Heating

CustomerCustomer

The results from the survey were used to calculate a winter/summer breakpoint, the significance was tested using a Z-statistic at the 90% confidence level

Sanity Check

» CIPS 1996 Demographic and Appliance CIPS 1996 Demographic and Appliance SurveySurvey

» In 1996, 20% of CIPS residential population were electric and 80% were non- electric heating

» Results from using 1.32 as the breakpointResults from using 1.32 as the breakpoint

» 23% of CIPS 2001 residential population are electric heating customers and 77% are non-electric heating customers

»this check shows that after 4 years there has been accordingly a slight growth in CIPS residential electric heating customers

Breakpoints for the Breakpoints for the Different Electric Heating Different Electric Heating

TechnologiesTechnologies

An attempt to find the breakpoints among the different electric heating

technologies was inconclusive

Electric vs Non Electric Heat Load Profile

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Average Temp

Ave

rag

e K

W

Any Electric Heat

No Electric Heat

Electric Heat Load Profiles

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Ave Temp

Ave

rag

e K

W Resistance

Baseboard

Electric Heat Pump

ConclusionConclusion

By effectively utilizing Load Research data a count of residential electric heating

customers was successfully obtained.

A more valid sample size is appropriate to further breakdown by the different types of electric heat.

Questions?Questions?????