Using Experimentation to Support Future Capability Needs: CB Effects in the JFCOM Urban Resolve Experiment

Ian Griffiths, Andrew Solman, Neil Dyer – DstlDoug Brain – RiskAwareMark Biwer – Northrop GrummanLt Col Mike Wall – DTRA

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Those parts produced by Dstl authors are © Crown Copyright 2007. Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO.

© Dstl 200730 March 2007 Dstl is part of the

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Overview• Aim of M&S

• Capability– Real World Representation– Hazard Prediction Concept Demonstrator

• Applications– Training – JVTSE– Experimentation – Urban Resolve

• Summary and future plans

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Aims of M&S• Concept demonstration

• Training

• Experimentation– Evaluating effect on campaigns– Requirements definition– Balance of investment

• Raising technology readiness

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Dstl’s CBR M&S Capability• The capability splits into two areas

– Real-World Representation• Exists to stimulate Hazard Prediction Concept demonstrator

and other systems– Hazard Prediction Concept Demonstrator

• Allows demonstration and evaluation of emerging technologies

• Exploration and clarification of requirements for future hazard prediction systems

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Real-World Representation• Sophisticated CBR modelling used to

– Simulate realistic ground truth– Stimulate other systems

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Courtesy of RiskAware Ltd Courtesy of RiskAware Ltd

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Real-World Representation• The “Ground Truth”

representation consists of the following elements

– Chemical and Biological Simulator (CBSim)

– Detector models– Ground-truth visualisation

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CBSim

• CBSim provides real-time modelling capability

– Urban dispersion– Instantaneous dispersion

realisation• Terrain effects• Meander effects• Concentration realisation

– Stimulation of detectors– Casualty calculations

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CB Effects Modelling Capability

Plug and Play Architecture

Dispersion ModellingRealistic Terrain MeteorologyIPE Concentration

RealisationDetectorsCasualty Chain

Modelling

CB Effects Modelling Capability

• Dispersion Modelling– 2D and 3D CBRN sources and

hazard plumes• Terrain

– FACTS, Meander, Buildings• Meteorology

• Value of Information

• Detectors – Chemical, Biological, Bio Background

• Casualty Chain Modelling• Effects of Hazards

– IPE• Concentration Realisation• Aggregated Entities

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Dispersion Modelling - The UDM• Runs in

– Real-time– Instantaneous mode

• Different to ensemble hazard, e.g. HPAC, JEM

• Gives a single realisation

• Uses updating wind input

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CBR Plume Output

• Output of CB material plumes

– Dosage– Deposition– Concentration

• Radiological material plumes

– Cloud and ground shine– Energy deposited in tissues– Also inhaled dose

Ground shine 1 minute after a 190kg release of Cesium 137

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Realistic Meteorology modelling• Meander Model

• AERMET boundary layer model

• Empirical sea breeze model

• Linear model of flow over hills

• Slope flow model

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Generating realistic time series• Concentration of challenge at

detector calculated by UDM driven by large scale meandering winds

• Concentration realisation agent used to generate realistic time series

– Simulates turbulent variations in concentration within puff

• Particles then sampled from this time series with noise

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Detector models

• Configurable chemical detector models

• Bar based detector

• Alarms at a threshold

• Challenged by realisation of concentration

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Ground Truth Visualization

• 2D/3D representation– Buildings– Terrain– Dosage, concentration,

effects contours– Puffs– Detectors/entities

• Visualiser can be distributed from CBSim calculation core

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Hazard Prediction Concept Demonstrator

• The Concept Demonstrator consists of– SAFE Warning & Reporting, including

STEM– Alternative Courses of Action Capability– REACT hand-held commander’s tool– Sensor Placement Operational Tool

(SPOT)

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SAFE Warning & Reporting• Warning and Reporting

system includes– Source Term Estimation– ATP-45 style templates– Ensemble Average

Hazard prediction

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Alternative Courses of Action Capability• ACAT tool allows alternative

routes around plume to be evaluated.

• Hazard provided by the W&R Concept Demonstrator

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REACT hand-held commander’s tool• Rapid Evaluation and Awareness

Command Tool (REACT)• Displays CBRN situational picture

from W&R Concept Demonstrator on a PDA

• Allows observer messages to be send into W&R Concept Demonstrator

• Allows investigation into and evaluation of hand-held PDA devices for operational hazard prediction systems

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Sensor Placement Operational Tool (SPOT)

• Monte Carlo parameters– Wind speed / direction– Release type– Agent type– Time of release– Mass

• Use optimization techniques to place sensors

– Genetic Algorithm– Simulated Annealing– Greedy Algorithm

Optimal sensor placement to protectgreen area, including desirable (purple)

and exclusion (red) areas

Wind rose

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Application 1: Input into Collective Training

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JFCOM J7 Joint Virtual Training Special Event 2005

• DTRA provided CBRN input into Collective training systems

• Systems involved– SPOT– CBSim– Detectors– Warning and Reporting Concept Demonstrator– ACAT tool– REACT PDA– External systems

• OASES and WALTS

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F15

CBSim

Detectors

Damage

W&R

Met

Network

Hand-helds

ACAT

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F15

CBSim

Detectors

Damage

W&R

Met

Network

Hand-helds

ACAT

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Application 2: Experimentation

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• Assess effect of technologies which will be available in 2015 against a 2005 baseline

– Overall scenario is peace enforcement in Baghdad

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JFCOM J9 Urban Resolve 2015 Experiment

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Ministry of Defence

• CBRN component– Assess effect of potential

integrated CBRN defence solutions

– Effort led by DTRA & J8 JRO CBRND

– Ground truth provided by CBSim– 2005 capability represented by

HPAC– 2015 capability of

JWARN/JEM/JOEF• Emulated by SAFE W&R

and associated tools

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JFCOM J9 Urban Resolve 2015 Experiment

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Ministry of Defence

CBRN and Supporting Components• Source release federate – modelled sources

• OASES – provided weather to federates

• CBSim – provided ground truth and CB effects on JSAF entities

• CAD Detectors

• JSAF – – modelled Iraqi military, some US military, and non-military entities (Iraqi police, insurgents, NGO, civilians, others)

• SAFE warning & reporting concept demonstrator– Includes source term estimation, ATP-45 & plume prediction– Emulated key required capabilities for JWARN/JEM

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JFCOM J9 Urban Resolve 2015 Experiment

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JSAF

OASES

SAFE W&R

CBSim Vis

CAD Detectors

Source Release Federate

ShapeFiles

DTRA file Specification

( OHT GOLD)

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Details• Releases

– Munition detonation (120mm motar attack) mustard– 11,500 gallon chlorine tanker truck

• Several levels of damage modelled dependent on attack• JSAF modelled ~230,000 entities in Baghdad• CBSim

– Modelled dispersion for multiple sources– Provided updates of CB casualty states due to contamination to

~10,000 (peak 30,000) entities every 5-20 seconds• SAFE W&R concept demonstrator

– Fused detector readings to estimate source term– Modelled ensemble plume hazard– Exported hazard contours compatible for display on COP

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Urban Resolve 2015 Results• CBRN systems must be integrated with the entire

battlespace awareness and command and control suite of the Joint Task Force

• CBRN events unfold over a significant amount of time –speedy response based on solid data and good analysis saves lives

• Future CBRN systems and processes require non-military functionality (e.g. political, economic and social)

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Summary• Presented DTRA led applications of CB simulation

capability in– Training (JFCOM J7 JVTSE)– Experimentation (JFCOM J9 Urban Resolve)

• M&S capability demonstrably able to meet requirements– Significant enhancements made

• Experimentation results of benefit to decision makers, guiding future programmes

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Future Plans• Enhancements to CBSim

– Performance improvements– Potential to increase functionality, e.g.

• Improved meteorological modelling• Biological background• Advanced CB protection models• Improved human effects modelling• Physiological burden

• Exploring possibility of linking/integrating capabilities with IWMDT/IWMDTSim

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