Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy...
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![Page 1: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information
(Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy)
Gavin SchmidtNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University
QUEST/AIMES Edinburgh 2010
![Page 2: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Scientists
Policymakers
![Page 3: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
We speak the same language but.... we frame issues very differently:
Scientists tend to focus on individual processes, abundance and concentrations
Policymakers focus on individual actions, emissions
Scientists are often single issue, Policymakers multi-tasking
i.e. air quality and climate and biodiversity and...
The Fundamental Issues
![Page 4: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
But isn't IPCC supposed to deal with this?
Secret definition of the IPCC:
Assessment of the science, by the scientists, for the scientists
![Page 5: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Climate forcings 1750-2000(Scientists' viewpoint)
IPCC AR4 (2007)
(mostly same as TAR except for a 90º clockwise rotation)
![Page 6: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
But different forcings are linked!
Each industrial or agricultural activity has a different emission profile
Different emissions affect secondary forcings (ozone, sulphates) through atmospheric chemistry
Net climate forcing or air quality impacts may be very different
![Page 7: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Forcings Forcings or Feedbacks Calculated
Climate processes
![Page 8: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Some key atmospheric interactions
Impact on SO2 -> SO4
![Page 9: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Key interactions
Competition for oxidants:
CH4 decreases OH and increases ozone
=> reduced oxidation of SO2
NOx increases OH and ozone
=> increased oxidation of CH4, SO2
SO2 decreases OH, decreases O3, nitrate
Competition for NH3 (btw sulphate and nitrate)
BC: direct affects (absorption) + semi-direct effects (local heating affecting clouds) + indirect impact on ice clouds
![Page 10: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Shindell et al (Science, 2009)
Climate forcings 1750-2000(Emissions viewpoint)
![Page 11: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Where do/will emissions come from?
Residential fossil fuel
Residential biofuel
Industry
Power
Biomass Burning
Transportation
NOx CO VOCs SO21995 2030 1995 2030 1995 2030 1995 2030
Global Emissions 1995 and 2030
![Page 12: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Examples: Transportation
Surface On-road Transport (ORT) Cars, trucks, trains CO2, NOx, BC etc.
Ground level, domestically controlled Aviation
CO2, NOx, SO2, Contrails, water vapourUpper troposphere, international
ShippingBunker fuel high in SO2
very visible indirect effects (ship tracks)Oceanic, surface, international
![Page 13: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Climate Impacts: On Road Transport and Power Generation (20 yr horizon)
Unger et al (2009, Atm. Env)
![Page 14: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Future scenarios: 50% reduction ORT emissions
S1: (zero emission replacement source)S2: (current power generation mix)
20-yr horizon
Unger et al (2009, Atm. Env)
![Page 15: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Temperature impacts of scenarios
Temperature (mK) Temperature (mK)
US only
Global
Zero-emission replacement Current power sector profile
20-yr horizonUnger et al (2009, Atm. Env)
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Pollutant impacts Ozone Sulphate
Zero-emissionreplacement
Current PGreplacement
BC OC
Unger et al (2009, Atm. Env)
![Page 17: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Summary
Surface transportation (US or Global) good target
Unambiguous reductions in climate forcing:
Regardless of replacement power source!
Some non-CO2 effects are more uncertain:
Indirect aerosol effects (incl. BC)
Projected reductions in temperatures across NH
Also reductions in Ozone and PM (BC)
Uncertainty in BC affects may impact results w.r.t. new diesel
![Page 18: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
CO2 CH4 (direct) Short lived species
Total-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Impact of 30% reduction in emissions in Asian and N. Amer-ican sectors
N. America domesticN. America surface transporta-tionN. America industry and power Asia domesticAsia transportAsia industry and power
Ra
dia
tive
Fo
rcin
g m
W/m
2
Climate forcings by sector(Policy viewpoint)
Shindell et al (2008)
On 20-yr timescale, inclusion of short-lived species (ozone, black carbon, sulphates) changes relative importance of sectorsN. Amer. transportation/Asian domestic better targets for reducing climate and air pollution effects
![Page 19: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Regional impacts of sector-specific reductions
![Page 20: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Can we identify win-win scenarios?
Yes!
1) Domestic use of coal and biomass in Asia
CO2, CO, SO2, soot => ozone, smog, health issues
Electrification (even using modern coal plants)
reduced CO2, reduced air pollution, reduced climate forcing, better health outcomes
2) Surface transportation in US/Europe
CO2, soot from diesel, NOx => ozone
Move to less driving/plug-in hybrids
reduce CO2, reduced air pollution
![Page 21: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Conclusions
Models can provide key input to policy choicesSector specific simulations can give projections for air quality and climate and other impactOutside of current IPCC frameworkEmerging focus on short-term initialized decadal predictions untested and of unclear utility for policymakersImportant uncertainties remain:
Carbon cycle feedbacks, mixed phase aerosols
Ice sheet response (for sea level rise)
Regional impacts
![Page 22: Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy) Gavin Schmidt NASA.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032804/56649e585503460f94b51e04/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Scientists
PolicymakersWe need to talk....