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Using Data for Decision-making
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Using Data for Decision-making
Rob Horner, Anne Todd, Steve Newton,
Bob Algozzine, Kate Algozzine
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Goals Define four roles for data use in a problem-solving
model
Define the key features of a problem statement
Define the process for identifying the data needed for decision-making
Define the process by which data are used to identify, refine, and problem-solve.
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Main Ideas Decisions are more likely to be effective and
efficient when they are based on data.
The quality of decision-making depends most on the first step (defining the problem to be solved)
Define problems with precision and clarity
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Main Ideas Data help us ask the right questions…they do
not provide the answers: Use data to Identify problems Refine problems Define the questions that lead to solutions
Data help place the “problem” in the context rather than in the students.
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Main Idea The process a team uses to problem solve is
important: Roles:
Facilitator; Recorder; Data analyst; Active member
Organization Agenda; Old business (did we do what we said we would
do); New business; Action plan for decisions. What happens BEFORE a meeting What happens DURING a meeting What happen AFTER a meeting
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Main Ideas Build “decision systems” not “data systems” Use data in “decision layers”
Is there a problem? (overall rate of ODR) Localize the problem
(location, problem behavior, students, time of day)
Get specific Don’t drown in the data It’s “OK” to be doing well Be efficient
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? Problem ?
Beh Location Time Studentof
Day
Setting A B C D E F G H I J K
Locations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Times A B C D E F G H I J K
Students 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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Using Data Do we have a problem? Refine the description of the problem?
What behavior, Who, Where, When, Why
Test hypotheses “I think the problem on the playground is due to Eric” “ We think the lunch period is too long” “We believe the end of ‘block schedule” is used
poorly”
Define how to monitor if solution is effective
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Identifying problems/issues What data to monitor
ODR per day per month OSS, ISS, Attendance, Teacher report Team Checklist/ SET (are we doing what we planned to do?)
What question to answer Do we have a problem?
What questions to ask of Level, Trend, Peaks How do our data compare with last year? How do our data compare with national/regional norms? How do our data compare with our preferred/expected status?
If a problem is identified, then ask What are the data we need to make a good decision?
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Using Data to Refine Problem Statement The statement of a problem is important for team-
based problem solving. Everyone must be working on the same problem with the same
assumptions.
Problems often are framed in a “Primary” form, that creates concern, but that is not useful for problem-solving.
Frame primary problems based on initial review of data Use more detailed review of data to build “Solvable Problem
Statements.”
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Solvable Problem Statements(What are the data we need for a decision?)
Solvable problem statements include information about the five core “W” questions. What is problem, and how often is it happening Where is it happening Who is engaged in the behavior When the problem is most likely Why the problem is sustaining
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Primary versus Precision Statements Primary Statements
Too many referrals September has more
suspensions than last year
Gang behavior is increasing
The cafeteria is out of control
Student disrespect is out of control
Precision Statements There are more ODRs
for aggression on the playground than last year. These are most likely to occur during first recess, with a large number of students, and the aggression is related to getting access to the new playground equipment.
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Primary versus Precision Statements Primary Statements
Too many referrals September has more
suspensions than last year
Gang behavior is increasing
The cafeteria is out of control
Student disrespect is out of control
Precision Statements There are more ODRs
for aggression on the playground than last year. These are most likely to occur during first recess, with a large number of students, and the aggression is related to getting access to the new playground equipment.
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Precise or Primary Statement? Children are using inappropriate language
with a high frequency in the presence of both adults and other children. This is creating a sense of disrespect and incivility in the school
James D. is hitting others in the cafeteria during lunch, and his hitting is maintained by peer attention.
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Precise or Primary Statement? ODRs during December are higher than in any other
month.
Minor disrespect and disruption are increasing over time, and are most likely during the last 15 minutes of our block periods when students are engaged in independent seat work. This pattern is most common in 7th and 8th grades, involves many students, and appears to be maintained by escape from work (but may also be maintained by peer attention… we are not sure).
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Precise or Primary Statement? Three 5th grade boys are name calling and
touching girls inappropriately during recess in an apparent attempt to obtain attention and possibly unsophisticated sexual expression.
Boys are engaging in sexual harassment
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Organizing Data for Decision-making
Compare data across time Moving from counts to count/month
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Tot
al O
ffic
e D
isci
plin
e R
efer
rals
Total Office Discipline Referrals as of January 10
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Change Report OptionsChange Report Options1.41.82.72.52.753.4900.000
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SWIS summary 06-07 (Majors Only)1974 schools; 1,025,422 students; 948,874 ODRs
Grade Range Number of Schools
Mean Enrollment per school
Mean ODRs per 100 per school day
K-6 1288 446 .34 (sd=.37)
(1 / 300 / day)
6-9 377 658 .98 (sd=1.36)
(1/ 100 / day)
9-12 124 1009 .93 (sd=.83)
(1/ 107 / day)
K-(8-12) 183 419 .86 (sd=1.14)
(1/ 120 / day
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Office Discipline Referrals per Day per Month per 100 Students
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June
# p
er d
ay p
er 1
00 s
tud
ents
Series1
Application Activity: Absolute ValueIs there a Problem?
Middle School of 625 students?Compare with national average:
625/100 = 6.25 6.25 X .98 = 6.12
Off
ice
Dis
cipl
ine
Ref
erra
ls p
er S
choo
l Day
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast year
Elementary School with 150 StudentsCompare with National Average
150 / 100 = 1.50 1.50 X .34 = .51
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast year
High School of 1800 students
Compare with National Average
1800 / 100 = 18 18 X .93 = 16.74
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthThis Year
Middle School of 700 students
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast Year and This Year
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast Year and This Year
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthThis Year
Middle School
N= 495
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Is There a Problem? #2Absolute - Trend - Compare
0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthThis year (Middle)
Middle School
N= 495
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast Year and This Year
Middle School
N= 495
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthLast Year and This Year
Middle School
N= 495
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What are the data you are most likely to need to move from a Primary to a Precise statement? What problem behaviors are most common?
ODR per Problem Behavior Where are problem behaviors most likely?
ODR per Location When are problem behaviors most likely?
ODR per time of day Who is engaged in problem behavior?
ODR per student Why are problem behaviors sustaining?
No graph
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What other data may you want? ODR by staff ODR by IEP ODR by grade ODR by gender by grade
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Test precision problem statement Use precision problem statement to build and
test hypotheses. Problems are most common in D-Hall wing Problems are more likely during second recess Problems are most common during assembly schedule Problems are more likely during state testing periods
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What behaviors are problematic?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
Lang Achol ArsonBombCombsDefianDisruptDressAgg/fgtTheftHarassProp D Skip Tardy Tobac Vand Weap
Types of Problem Behavior
Referrals per Prob Behavior
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What behaviors are problematic?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
Lang Achol ArsonBombCombsDefianDisruptDressAgg/fgtTheftHarassProp D Skip Tardy Tobac Vand Weap
Types of Problem Behavior
Referrals per Prob Behavior
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What behaviors are problematic?
0
5
10
15
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
Lang Achol ArsonBombCombsDefianDisruptDressAgg/fgtTheftHarassProp D Skip Tardy Tobac Vand Weap
Types of Problem Behavior
Referrals per Prob Behavior
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Where are the problems occurring?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of O
ffic
e R
efe
rrals
Bath RBus A Bus Caf ClassComm Gym Hall Libr Play G Spec Other
School Locations
Referrals by Location
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0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of O
ffic
e R
efe
rrals
Bath RBus A Bus Caf ClassComm Gym Hall Libr Play G Spec Other
School Locations
Referrals by Location
Where are the problems occurring?
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Who is contributing to the problem?Referrals per Student
0
10
20
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
per
Stu
dent
Students
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Who is contributing to the problem?
0
10
20
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
per
Stu
dent
Students
Students per Number of Referrals
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When are the problems occurring?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:0010:3011:00 11:3012:0012:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30
Time of Day
Referrals by Time of Day
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When are the problems occurring?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:0010:3011:00 11:3012:0012:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30
Time of Day
Referrals by Time of Day
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Using Data to Build Solutions Prevention: How can we avoid the problem context?
Who, When, Where Schedule change, curriculum change, etc
Teaching: How can we define, teach, and monitor what we want? Teach appropriate behavior Use problem behavior as negative example
Recognition: How can we build in systematic reward for desired behavior?
Extinction: How can we prevent problem behavior from being rewarded?
Consequences: What are efficient, consistent consequences for problem behavior?
How will we collect and use data to evaluate (a) implementation fidelity, and (b) impact on student outcomes?
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Solution DevelopmentPrevention
Teaching
Reward
Extinction
Corrective Consequence
Data Collection
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Examples Phoenix Elementary
What is national comparison? 265/100 = 2.65 2.65 X .34 = .90
Absolute level compared with last year, compared with teacher/staff impressions, compared with family impressions, compared with student impressions.
Where, what, when, who , why Hypotheses? Solutions
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Phoenix ElementaryUsing Data For Decision-Making
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You are the EBS team for Phoenix Elementary. 265 students k-5
Do you have a problem? Where? With Whom? What other information might you want? Given what you know, what considerations
would you have for possible action?
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0
1
2
3
4
5
Mean S
tudent C
onta
cts
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
School Months
Phoenix Student DisciplineContacts
Year 1Year 2
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Num
ber
of S
tudent C
onta
cts
Playgd ClassRestrm Caf OtherLocation
Phoenix ElementaryLocations
Year 1Year 2
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Phoenix Elementary ODR per Student
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
161 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Students
Nu
mbe
r of S
tude
nt c
onta
cts
Major ODRs Year 2 Only
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Phoenix Elementary ODR per Time of Day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Time of Day
Num
ber o
f Ref
erra
ls
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Problem Statement Do we have a problem? Build a precise problem statement
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Solution DevelopmentPrevention
Teaching
Reward
Extinction
Corrective Consequence
Data Collection
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Trevor Test Middle School
565 students
Grades 6,7,8
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0
5
10
15
20
Ave R
efe
rrals
per
Day
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
School Months
Office Referrals per Day per MonthThis Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
Lang Achol ArsonBombCombsDefianDisruptDressAgg/fgtTheftHarassProp D Skip Tardy Tobac Vand Weap
Types of Problem Behavior
Referrals per Prob Behavior
0
20
40
60
80
Num
ber
of O
ffic
e R
efe
rrals
Bath RBus A Bus Caf ClassComm Gym Hall Libr Play G Spec Other
School Locations
Referrals by Location
0
10
20
30
40
50
Num
ber
of R
efe
rrals
7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:0010:3011:00 11:3012:0012:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30
Time of Day
Referrals by Time of Day
Cafeteria Class Commons Hall
12:00
Lang.
Defiance
Disruption
Harrass Skip
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0
20
40
60
80
100 N
um
ber
of S
tudents
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Number of Referrals
Students per Number of Referrals
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Precise Problem Statement &Hypothesis Development Many students from all grade levels are engaging in
disruption, inappropriate language and harassment in cafeteria and hallway during lunch, and the behavior is maintained by peer attention
A smaller number of students engage in skipping and noncompliance/defiance in classes, (mostly in rooms 13, 14 and 18), and these behaviors appear to be maintained by escape.
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Solution DevelopmentPrevention
Teaching
Reward
Extinction
Corrective Consequence
Data Collection
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Solution Development:For disruption in hall and cafeteriaPrevention *Teach behavioral expectations in
cafeteria
*Maintain current lunch schedule, but shift classes to balance numbers.
Teaching
Reward Establish “Friday Five”: Extra 5 min of lunch on Friday for five good days.
Extinction Encourage all students to work for “Friday Five”… make reward for problem behavior less likely
Corrective Consequence Active supervision, and continued early consequence (ODR)
Data Collection Maintain ODR record and supervisor weekly report
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Langley Elementary School478 Students
K-5
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Precision Statement/Hypothesis What Where When Who Why What other info needed?
Possible Solutions?
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Solution DevelopmentPrevention
Teaching
Reward
Extinction
Corrective Consequence
Data Collection
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Sandhill High school354 students
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Sandhill High School: 354 students
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Sandhill High School
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Sandhill High School
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Precision Statement/Hypothesis What Where When Who Why What other info needed?
Possible Solutions?
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Solution DevelopmentPrevention
Teaching
Reward
Extinction
Corrective Consequence
Data Collection