Using capital to counter the threat of low and volatile ... · Alex Sinnett, Jonathon Tocker, Bill...
Transcript of Using capital to counter the threat of low and volatile ... · Alex Sinnett, Jonathon Tocker, Bill...
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Using capital to counter the threat of low and volatile farm income
by
Alex Sinnett, Jonathon Tocker, Bill Malcolm
DEPI Victoria
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Base Farm (status quo SQ) 560 ha; 16 dse/ha; 129% lambing
C2. Increase
stocking rate on base farm 20 dse/ha
(+4 dse/ha) Low Extra
Capital $344,000
C3. Increase land
area and run at same stocking
rate as base farm
800 ha(+240 ha) High Extra
capital $1,348,400
C4. Increase land
area and stocking rate on base farm and
extra land 20 dse/ha; 800
ha High Extra
Capital $1,800,000
C1. Increase
lambing % on base farm 145% lamb
marking (+16%) Low extra
capital $72,000
Changes investigated for case study farm
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Total Cost
Total Fixed Cost
Total Variable Cost
Quantity of output
Total variable cost, total fixed cost and total cost
$
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Quantity of output
Average variable cost, average fixed cost and average total cost
$
Average Total Cost
Average Variable Cost
Average Fixed Cost
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profit profit
profit
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Costs and Scale
Costs per unit of output and the number of units of output combine to create total profit.
Increasing output increases profit and wealth by reducing average fixed costs per unit of output and increasing gross revenue.
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Base Farm (status quo SQ) 560 ha; 16 dse/ha; 129% lambing
C2. Increase
stocking rate on base farm 20 dse/ha
(+4 dse/ha) Low Extra
Capital $344,000
C3. Increase land
area and run at same stocking
rate as base farm
800 ha(+240 ha) High Extra
capital $1,348,400
C4. Increase land
area and stocking rate on base farm and
extra land 20 dse/ha; 800
ha High Extra
Capital $1,800,000
C1. Increase
lambing % on base farm 145% lamb
marking (+16%) Low extra
capital $72,000
Changes investigated for case study farm
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SQ C1 C2 C3 C4
Costs
per
one d
ollar
of
incom
e
Total income over 7 year analysis period
Cost of producing a dollar of income
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What about Risk?
Business risk
Financial Risk
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Return relative to total risk for each option
Ind
icat
or
of
To
tal
Ris
k
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Business Risk compared with Financial Risk
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Each change increased productivity and increased income more than costs increased, thus increased profit, above that of the current farm system.
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Borrowing and buying and intensifying more land increased financial risk and business risk
and at the same time
increased the probable annual net cash flows and profits and growth in wealth.
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In this case, if buying more land,
intensification was also required to better service the added debt that
had to be taken on.
Buying and increasing productivity was the highest return highest risk
option.
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Who Bets?