Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name:...
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Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name: Shannon Watson Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy
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Transcript of Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name:...
Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in
Sydney Harbour
Interim PresentationName: Shannon Watson
Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy
Introduction The application domain Bayesian Networks Knowledge Engineering Conclusion
The domain Water quality issue within
the Sydney community for recreation use
Beach watch program to monitor water quality using visual indicators
- is pollution showing etc
But bacteria sampling shows that visually appealing water can contain harmful pathogens
Test beaches for bacteria
The domain Deep ocean outfalls were commissioned
Reduction in levels of bacteria -improved water quality
The domain Beaches in the harbour
still have high levels of bacteria though,
No bacteria entering through sewage
Only surface runoff/storm water overflow
Have tried to understand the relationship through modeling
Past studies Hose et al. used multi
dimension scaling model of Sydney harbour
unable to handle the noisy bacteria samples
Other models Wasps / CE-QAUL-W2- used in the US to model estuaries
EPA in Sydney want a model that can use knowledge of causal structure
Sydney Harbour Modeling the pollution(bacteria) in
the harbour- Using Bayesian networks
- Can handle noisy data sets - Take advantage of causal
structure
Bayesian Networks Graphical structure allows non-
technical people to understand a technical model.
Have been used by R.J. Kennett, a past honours student at Monash, to predict the sea breeze
Bayesian Networks – An example
Decide_Umbrella
Take ItLeave At...
Forecast
SunnyCloudyRainy
33.333.333.3
Weather
No RainRain
50.050.0
Satisfaction
Example cont.
Decide_Umbrella
Take ItLeave At...
Forecast
SunnyCloudyRainy
53.521.525.0
Weather
No RainRain
70.030.0
Satisfaction
Knowledge Engineering Used to keep structure of large projects in
software engineering discipline Two major implementations
-Spiral model/Waterfall Model Demonstrate how Knowledge Engineering can
be used in the application of Bayesian Networks, as there is currently no literature on how to create large Bayesian networks
Spiral Model
Conclusion Use Bayesian networks Create a model of Sydney harbour Aim to predict the water quality for
EPA Use Spiral Model
Questions
