USGS Decision-Making Tools for Pre-Earthquake Mitigation and … · 2008. 10. 11. · DAVID WALD...

DAVID WALD United States Geological SurveyUnited States Geological Survey

NEHRP WorkshopNEHRP Workshop::Developing Earthquake Developing Earthquake

ScenariosScenariosSept 17Sept 17--18, 200818, 2008

San Francisco, CASan Francisco, CAUSGS National Earthquake

Information Center,Golden, Colorado

USGS Decision-Making Tools for Pre-EarthquakeMitigation and Post-Earthquake Response “Tools of the Trade”

USGS Earthquake Web Pages

Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)

“Did You Feel It?”

CISN Display

ShakeMap

ShakeCast

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER)

Overview

Focus here primarily on hazard (shaking) side of the scenario, and related information tools.

ShakeMap “hand-off” to ShakeCast or HAZUS-MH for losses & comprehensive impact assessment.

These are situational awareness tools associated with real events thus, should be used for scenarios.

Tools available range from passive (web pages) to active (notifications), simple to sophisticated (applications), easy-to-install to substantial IT investments.

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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)

• Sign up to receive notifications by email or cell/pda for any earthquake nationally (located by the regional networks of the ANSS) or nationally & globally (located by the NEIC).

• Customize your notifications based on geo-graphic boundaries, magnitude threshold & time of day.

• Multiple user profiles - get email for smaller earthquakes but get text messages for the big ones!

ENS

EarthquakeNotificationService

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ens/

“Did You Feel It?”Macroseismic data collection via the Internet

ShakeMapAutomatic shaking intensity maps from Seismic data

Acceleration (%g)

ShakeMap ShakeMap

M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Earthquake, Oct. 30, 2007M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Earthquake, Oct. 30, 2007

“Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”

64,000 responses; Max Rate 48/sec(!)(sustained rate of 22/sec for 30 min)

38K/30 min

M5.2 Illinois Earthquake, April 18, 2008M5.2 Illinois Earthquake, April 18, 2008

“Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”

ShakeMap ShakeMap “Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”

(9 Years of DYFI? Data)

Over 1 Million Individual Responses Nationally!

“Did You Feel it?”

• DYFI? Intensity Map as a part of situational awareness

• Constraints for ShakeMap (areas of low instrumentation, domestically & internationally)

• Input into FEMA’s HAZUS-MH, PAGER• Would be easy to mimic DYFI page

for a scenario?

REPLACE WITH UPDATE

ShakeMap Home PageShakeMap Home Page

ShakeMap Scenarios: Pacific NorthwestShakeMap Scenarios: Pacific Northwest

ShakeMap Scenarios: AlaskaShakeMap Scenarios: Alaska

2008 ShakeMap Scenarios: Southern California2008 ShakeMap Scenarios: Southern California

Nov 12, 2008 So. California “ShakeOut”Nov 12, 2008 So. California “ShakeOut”

ShakeMap “Download” PageShakeMap “Download” Page

Courtesy of D. Bausch, FEMA

Historic Earthquake ShakeMap “Atlas”Historic Earthquake ShakeMap “Atlas”

Atlas event: 1976 M7.6 Guatemala Earthquake

Atlas event: 1976 M7.6 Guatemala Earthquake

Vs30 Derived FromVs30 Derived FromTopographic Slope Topographic Slope

Topography & Vs30Topography & Vs30MeasurementsMeasurements

Taiwan

Topography & Topography & Vs30 measurements Vs30 measurements Vs30 From Slope Vs30 From Slope

Vs30 From Geology Vs30 From Geology (Wills et al. 2000) (Wills et al. 2000)

San Francisco Bay AreaSan Francisco Bay Area

Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Central and Eastern USCentral and Eastern US

Results – Mississippi Embayment

3c

30c

9c

ShakeMap Scenario Archive???ShakeMap Scenario Archive???



U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

ShakeCastShakeMap BroadCast — Moving beyond “looking at” ShakeMap

Automatic Damage Assessment for Critical Facilities

Low

MediumMed High

High

Caltrans OverpassesDiv. Water Resources Dams

ShakeCastShakeCast

Special Special capabilitiescapabilities

for First for First Responders!Responders!

Other Other ShakeCast ShakeCast

Uses:Uses:

Global Global CitiesCities

ROVER: Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk• Implements FEMA 154 on smart phone

• Rapidly create an inventory buildings exposed to risk; ID those warranting detailed examination

• Integrated with HAZUS & ShakeCast

Based on slides from K. Porter





Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response

PAGERPAGER Estimated Estimated ImpactImpact< 15 min< 15 min

Magnitude & Magnitude & EpicenterEpicenter< 15 min< 15 min

News AccountsNews Accounts~ hours to days~ hours to days




PAGER GoalsPAGER Goals

– Fundamentally change the nature of post-earthquake information: move beyond magnitude & hypocenter to estimate loss & provide situational awareness

– Primarily a tool for post-earthquake, rapid impact assessment (particularly fatalities); priority is in the developing world where fatalities are greatest

– Also, provide basis for earthquake loss mitigation, thru earthquake scenarios & vulnerability assessment

– Collaborative, international effort

– Open model & data environment; develop intermediate products, tools, & data sets for other uses/users




PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response




PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response

51,000

6,200Fatalities

Population Per Intensity

Seismic Intensity

Reported Intensities

PAGER

500Fatalities

33 fatalities

$40Bdamage

0 fatalities$200M

damage

Repeat of 1868 Hayward Fault (Magnitude 7.0):

IX: 450,000

VIII: 1,8600,000

Repeat of 1906 San Francisco (Magnitude 7.8):

IX: 611,000

VIII: 4,822,000

Future for Scenarios?Notifications from ENS/CISN Display.

ShakeMap for standardized products

o Need more comprehensive “Archive” of ShakeMap Scenarios

o Need search by location, name, magnitude, etc.

ShakeMap “hand-off” to ShakeCast, HAZUS-MH, etc., for losses & comprehensive impact assessment.

ShakeCast/Rover for exercises & utility/structure impact assessment.

PAGER for very rapid, overall impact assessment;

HAZUS-MH for detailed losses, needs, & maps.

AcknowledgmentsShakeMapShakeMap

Support & development by Bruce Worden, Vince Quitoriano, & Support & development by Bruce Worden, Vince Quitoriano, & KuoKuo--Wan LinWan LinOngoing operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, and other ANSS Ongoing operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, and other ANSS

regional Networks.regional Networks.

ShakeCastShakeCastFunding from Funding from USGSUSGS, , CaltransCaltrans, & the , & the American Lifeline Alliance American Lifeline Alliance Development by Development by KuoKuo--Wan Lin, Wan Lin, ww/ / HungryMindHungryMind Inc., Boulder.Inc., Boulder.Loren Turner, P.E., Senior Transportation Engineer, Caltrans: Loren Turner, P.E., Senior Transportation Engineer, Caltrans:

Management of Caltrans support, primary development & testing V2Management of Caltrans support, primary development & testing V2.0.0

PAGER:PAGER:Paul Earle, Mike Hearne, ....Paul Earle, Mike Hearne, ....Funding for USGS (from PresidentFunding for USGS (from President’’s Tsunami Supplemental)s Tsunami Supplemental)Funding from Funding from USAID/Office Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)USAID/Office Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)ANSS, Global Seismic Network (GSN)ANSS, Global Seismic Network (GSN)

Thank YouThank You

http://earthquake.usgs.gov

USGS Decision-Making Tools for Pre-Earthquake Mitigation and … · 2008. 10. 11. · DAVID WALD...

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