User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal...

36
User meeting 14-16 June 2006 1 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006

Transcript of User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal...

Page 1: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 1

Monthly and Seasonal forecasts

Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section

User meeting 14-16 June 2006

Page 2: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 2

Outline:Monthly Forecast:

- Performance - Verification information is available on web- New products are made available on the web

Seasonal forecast:

- Performance- EUROSIP multi-model products in progress - S3 verification/documentation in progress

Page 3: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 3

MAM02 MAM03 MAM04 MAM05 MAM060.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

MAM02 MAM03 MAM04 MAM05 MAM060.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

Performance over the Northern Extra-tropics

Monthly Forecast

Persistence of day 5-11

ROC area of probability of 2-meter temperature in upper tercile

Day 12-18 Day 19-32

Monthly Forecast

Persistence of day 5-18

Page 4: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 4

Monthly Forecast verification site:

-

Page 5: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 5

Examples of verification

Example of probabilistic scores:

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

20041007 TO 20060504DAY 12-18ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9

ROC Map

Page 6: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 6

Example of verification: Extreme cold over Russia

80°S 80°S

60°S 60°S

40°S 40°S

20°S 20°S

0° 0°

20°N 20°N

40°N 40°N

60°N 60°N

80°N 80°N

160°W

160°W

120°W

120°W

80°W

80°W

40°W

40°W

40°E

40°E

80°E

80°E

120°E

120°E

160°E

160°E

80°S 80°S

60°S 60°S

40°S 40°S

20°S 20°S

0° 0°

20°N 20°N

40°N 40°N

60°N 60°N

80°N 80°N

160°W

160°W

120°W

120°W

80°W

80°W

40°W

40°W

40°E

40°E

80°E

80°E

120°E

120°E

160°E

160°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 16-01-2006/TO/22-01-20062-meter Temperature anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

80°S 80°S

60°S 60°S

40°S 40°S

20°S 20°S

0° 0°

20°N 20°N

40°N 40°N

60°N 60°N

80°N 80°N

160°W

160°W

120°W

120°W

80°W

80°W

40°W

40°W

40°E

40°E

80°E

80°E

120°E

120°E

160°E

160°E

80°S 80°S

60°S 60°S

40°S 40°S

20°S 20°S

0° 0°

20°N 20°N

40°N 40°N

60°N 60°N

80°N 80°N

160°W

160°W

120°W

120°W

80°W

80°W

40°W

40°W

40°E

40°E

80°E

80°E

120°E

120°E

160°E

160°E

80°S 80°S

60°S 60°S

40°S 40°S

20°S 20°S

0° 0°

20°N 20°N

40°N 40°N

60°N 60°N

80°N 80°N

160°W

160°W

120°W

120°W

80°W

80°W

40°W

40°W

40°E

40°E

80°E

80°E

120°E

120°E

160°E

160°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 12-01-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 05-01-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 29-12-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 22-12-2005: DAY 26-32

<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg

Page 7: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 7

Cold event over Europe

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 27-02-2006/TO/05-03-20062-meter Temperature anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 23-02-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 16-02-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 09-02-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 02-02-2006: DAY 26-32

<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg

Page 8: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 8

Precipitation over India

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06

An.

Day

5-11

Day

12-18

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006

DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006

<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm

Page 9: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 9

Indian monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile

27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 , 2005

ROC score: 0.64 0.49DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32

ROC score: 0.58 0.49 ROC score: 0.46 0.48

SST PERT (K)

80°E

80°E

<*** -2..-1.0 -1.0..-0.5 -0.5..-0.2 -0.2..-0 0...0.2 0.2..0.5 0.5..1.0 1.0..2.0 > 2.0

Monthly Forecast

Persistence of the probabilities

of the previous week

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 1220041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa

ROC score = 0.644ROC score = 0.470

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

255075

100125

Forecast

Persistence

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 1920041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa

ROC score = 0.581ROC score = 0.493

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

0255075

100125

Forecast

Persistence

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 2620041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:South Africa

ROC score = 0.461ROC score = 0.489

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

0306090

120150

Forecast

Persistence

Page 10: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 10

Precipitation over Africa

08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06

An.

Day

5-11

Day

12-18

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006

DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006

<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18

FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32

<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

Page 11: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 11

African monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile

27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005

ROC score: 0.59 0.54DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32

ROC score: 0.54 0.49 ROC score: 0.53 0.49

Monthly Forecast

Persistence of the probabilities

of the previous week

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 1220041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa

ROC score = 0.592ROC score = 0.538

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

95

190285

380475

Forecast

Persistence

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 1920041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa

ROC score = 0.541ROC score = 0.496

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

110220330440550

Forecast

Persistence

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit r

ate

Day 2620041007-20060504ECMWF Monthly Forecast, Precipin lower tercile , Area:West Africa

ROC score = 0.532ROC score = 0.495

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

135270405540675

Forecast

Persistence

20W-25E, 0N-20N

Page 12: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 12

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

RMM1

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

RM

M2

FORECAST BASED 03/02/2005 00UTCECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS

OceanIndian

PacificWestern

ContinentMaritime

and AfricaWest Hem.

PHASE 1

PHASE 2

PHASE 3

PHASE 4 PHASE 5

PHASE 6

PHASE 7

PHASE 8

Day 1 Day 5 Day 10

Day 15 Day 20 Analysis

Ens. Mean

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAY

S

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

FORECAST BASED 3/2/2005 00UTCENSEMBLE MEAN BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N

Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

7/03 6/03 5/03 4/03 3/03 2/03 1/0328/0227/0226/0225/0224/0223/0222/0221/0220/0219/0218/0217/0216/0215/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01

FO

REC

AST

A

NAL

YSIS

Indian Ocean

Maritime continent

westernPacific

West. HemisAnd Africa

MJO real-time forecast

Page 13: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 13

Stamp map of velocity potential at 200 hPa

Cntr T159

Velocity Potential anomaly at 200 hPa between 10N and 10S (countour every 2 m**2/s)FORECAST BASED 01/12/2005 00UTCECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS

Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4 Forecast 5 Forecast 6 Forecast 7 Forecast 8 Forecast 9 Forecast 10

Forecast 11 Forecast 12 Forecast 13 Forecast 14 Forecast 15 Forecast 16 Forecast 17 Forecast 18 Forecast 19 Forecast 20

Forecast 21 Forecast 22 Forecast 23 Forecast 24 Forecast 25 Forecast 26 Forecast 27 Forecast 28 Forecast 29 Forecast 30

Forecast 31 Forecast 32 Forecast 33 Forecast 34 Forecast 35 Forecast 36 Forecast 37 Forecast 38 Forecast 39 Forecast 40

Forecast 41 Forecast 42 Forecast 43 Forecast 44 Forecast 45 Forecast 46 Forecast 47 Forecast 48 Forecast 49 Forecast 50

MJO real-time forecast

Page 14: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 14

Nino3.4 Performance

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ano

mal

y (d

eg C

)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ensemble size is 40 SST obs: NCEP OIv2ECMWF forecasts at month 6

NINO3.4 SST forecast anomalies

Obs. anom. Fcast S2

MAGICS 6.10 cumal - net Fri May 19 15:06:42 2006

Page 15: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 15

Performance during the most recent La Niña event

Page 16: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 16

Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON

ECMWF

EUROSIP

OBS: JJASON 2005

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

20

20051993-2004

WNP ENP Atl

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

17.8 11.88.7 12.520 212.3 2.5

No Significance Sig at 10% level Sig at 5% level Sig at 1% level

Ensemble size =120,climate size =180Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast

Significance level is 10%JASON

ECMWF/Met Office/Météo-France

FORECAST CLIMATE

Page 17: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 17

Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms 1993-2005Forecasts issued in June

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

3456789

10111213141516171819202122232425

Tro

pic

al S

torm

Nu

mb

er

2005

Forecast starting on 1st JuneTropical Storm Frequency over the North Atlantic (JASON)

RMS Error= 1.02( 0.77)Correlation=0.70( 0.99)

FORECAST Observations 2 Standard Deviations

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YEAR

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nu

mb

er

of tr

op

ica

l sto

rms

Forecasts issued in June

CSU ForecastMulti-modelObs

ECMWF: corr 0.70

EUROSIP: corr 0.75

Page 18: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 18

-0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.50.5

1 1

1

1

1

1

1 12

-8-6-4-2-1.50.51.5357

Observed anomalies SST: JJA 2005

EUROSIP: Forecast start May 2005

Page 19: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 19

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2 0.2

0.2 0.2 0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5 0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

1

11 1

1

1

12

2

2

2

2

24

-4-2-0.50.213

GPCP anomaly JJA 2005

Past performance (i):

Page 20: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 20

EUROSIP predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe:

Prob (mslp > median)

Forecast started Nov 2005:

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

6

6

6 6

10

10

10

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

3

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea

-30

-25

-10

-6

-2

-1

1

2

6

10

25

30

observed anomaly:

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

3

3

3

3

3

3

333

4

4

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp

-12-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.5123456712

2m temp

mslp

Prob (2m temp > median)

Page 21: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 21

Ecmwf predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe:Forecast started Nov 2005:

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

6

6

6 6

10

10

10

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

3

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea

-30

-25

-10

-6

-2

-1

1

2

6

10

25

30

observed anomaly:

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

3

3

3

3

3

3

333

4

4

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp

-12-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.5123456712

2m temp

mslp

Prob (2m temp > median)

Prob (mslp < median)

Page 22: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 23

Seasonal forecast skill:

Page 23: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 24

Seasonal forecast skill:

Page 24: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 25

Skill comparison: S2 vs S3:S3

Operational (S2)

Persistence

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Verification month

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

An

om

aly

co

rre

latio

n

wrt NCEP adjusted OIv2 1971-2000 climatology

NINO3.4 SST anomaly correlation at 3,6 months

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Verification month

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Rm

s e

rro

r (d

eg

C)

Ensemble sizes are 3 (erwq) and 3 (0001) 73 start dates from 19870101 to 20050101

NINO3.4 SST rms errors at 3,6 months

Fcast erwq Fcast S2 Persistence

MAGICS 6.10 cumal - net Fri Jun 9 16:53:32 2006

Page 25: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 26

Summary (1):

Monthly Forecast:

• Good performance over the Northern extra-tropics up to 19-32 days.

• Good skill in predicting the Indian monsoon.

• Prediction of the West African monsoon show less skill.

• Verification is on the website and it is updated every week.

• Additional products are made available on the web.

Page 26: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 27

Summary (2):Seasonal Forecast:• Good performance for the predictions of SST

anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.

• Tropical storm predictions show a good skill and this is enhanced by the EUROSIP multi-model system.

• Neither the ECMWF or EUROSIP dynamical systems produced good predictions for the last winter (DJF 2005/06).

• The skill of the seasonal forecast varies with regions and seasons.

• Latest results from S3 indicate that the Niño predictions are generally improved.

Page 27: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 32

Past performance: Guinea Coast precipitation from May 2005 forecasts

Met Office

Ecmwf

Météo France

May June July August September October

-3.9

-2.9

-1.9

-1.0

0.0

1.0

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-3.9

-2.9

-1.9

-1.0

0.0

1.0

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-3.9

-2.9

-1.9

-1.0

0.0

1.0

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-3.9

-2.9

-1.9

-1.0

0.0

1.0

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-6.2

-5.0

-3.7

-2.5

-1.2

0.0

1.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-6.2

-5.0

-3.7

-2.5

-1.2

0.0

1.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-6.2

-5.0

-3.7

-2.5

-1.2

0.0

1.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-6.2

-5.0

-3.7

-2.5

-1.2

0.0

1.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-8.0

-6.4

-4.8

-3.2

-1.6

0.0

1.6

3.2

4.8

6.4

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-8.0

-6.4

-4.8

-3.2

-1.6

0.0

1.6

3.2

4.8

6.4

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-8.0

-6.4

-4.8

-3.2

-1.6

0.0

1.6

3.2

4.8

6.4

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

May June July August September October

-8.0

-6.4

-4.8

-3.2

-1.6

0.0

1.6

3.2

4.8

6.4

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=23 Forecast initial date: 2005 501 precip. anomalies (mm/day) latitude= 10.0 to 0.0 longitude= -10.0 to 15.0

Page 28: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 33

SST DJF 2006

Ecmwf

Met Office

Météo France

-1

-1 -1

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

0.5 0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

1

1

1

-10 -10-9 -9-8-7-6-5 -3

-1.5 -1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

3

DJF 05/06 SST anomlies (1958-2001)

-10

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

10

Page 29: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 34

2m temp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05

ECMWF

Met Office

Météo France

-4

-3-3

-3

-3

-2

-2 -2 -2

-2

-2

-1

-1-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

1

1

1

1

11

22

22

22

2

3

3 3

33 3

34

4

4

44

4

55

555

5 5

10

10

-2-2

-2

-2 -2

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

22 2

2

2 2

22 4

4

4 6

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: 2 metre temperature/Surf: 2 metre temp

-10

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

5

10

Observed anomalies

Page 30: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 35

mslp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05

Met Office

ECMWF

Météo France

-4

-4-4

-4

-3 -3

-3

-3

-3

-3

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1-1-1

-1 -1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

11

1

1

1

11

1

1 1

1

22

2

2

22

2

22

2

33

3

3

3

33

33

3

44

44

4

4 4

4

4

4

-3-3

-3

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

1.5

1.51.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

33

3 4

ECMWF Mean of 31 Uninitialised Analyses Valid: VT:00UTC 1 December 2005 to 00UTC 31 December 2005 Surface: mean sea level pressure/Surf: mean sea

-60

-4

-3

-2

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

2

3

4

60

Observed anomalies

Page 31: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 36

Predictions of 2m temp anomalies over Southern Europe:

Ecmwf

Met Office

Météo France

Page 32: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 37

NAO Predictions :Météo France

Met Office

Ecmwf

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=225 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=075 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

November December January February March April

-6.5

-4.3

-2.2

0.0

2.2

4.3

Ensemble size: Forecast=40 Model climate=045 Analysis climate=43 Forecast initial date: 20051101North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Page 33: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 38

DJF Correlation between:2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N)

and Z 500hPa (1987-2003)

DJF cor : (167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 129 era40 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

DJF cor : ( 167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 139 er40 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 scop November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 139 scop November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 034 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Met OfficeEcmwf

Era 40

Page 34: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 39

DJF cor : (167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 129 era40 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

DJF cor : ( 167(0-35E, 10N-30N) and 139 er40 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 034 ukmo November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 129 scop November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Nino3.4 cor month2-3-4 : ( 139 scop November starts 1987-2003)

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1

Met OfficeEcmwf

Era 40

DJF Correlation between:2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N)SST (1987-2003)

Page 35: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 41

Tropical Storms: Monthly ForecastProbability of a tropical storm within 1 degree

Day 10-32

TROPICAL STORM PROBABILTIY

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

< 5% 5.. 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 80 > 80%

TROPICAL STORM PROBABILTIY

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

< 5% 5.. 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 80 > 80%

Forecast starting on 4 August 2005

Model climatology starting on 4 July 1993-2004

Page 36: User meeting 14-16 June 20061 Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006.

User meeting 14-16 June 2006 46

Bias:( 165 epcr init. date 19870401 to 2002 m2-4)

-10

-6

-4

-2

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

2

4

6

10

Bias:( 165 ekrm init. date 19870401 to 2001 m2-4)

-10

-6

-4

-2

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

2

4

6

10

Bias: ( 165 sco5 init. date 19870401 to 2001 m2-4)

-10

-6

-4

-2

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

2

4

6

10

System 3 experimentati

on:10m zonal wind bias

Too weak easterlies

Oper. system MJJ (1987-2003) m 2-4

Cy 29r1

Cy 29r3