User Conference 10/30/14

2015 ESA-CSUF Master’s in Applied Math Research

Program: Storms

John D. GraceEarth Science Associates

Long Beach, CA

October 30, 2014

Follows 2012 Pore Pressure Prediction Project

• Highly productive 2012 ESA-CSUF project on pore pressure– >100 maps already in GOM3 & growing– AAPG Bulletin article

• Model for adding value to GOM3 by analysis of our data

• Seeking to broaden support

User Conference 10/30/14

Technical Plan

• Upgrade storm forecasting– Extract possible paths for “disturbed air”– Disaggregate wind speed/timing data from

NHC forecast tracks– Perform extensive validation tests

• Upgrade storm impact assessment– Effect of storm on GOM oil & gas supply– Calibrate to historical record

User Conference 11/14/13

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of a Storm

User Conference 10/30/14 Hurricane Bertha 7/27/14-8/6/14

Bayes’ Rule: Introducing Storm History into a Forecast

User Conference 10/30/14

80%NHC Probability

Disturbed Air System

Becomes a Cyclone = 80%

Probability Enters GOM

= 37%

Probability Disturbed Air Enters GOMAs A Cyclone = (80% x 37%) = 30%

Recalculate Map for Approach from East–

Prob(Enter GOM) = 45%

Recalculate Map for Approach from SoutheastProb(Enter GOM) = 15%

Monte Carlo: Deriving Possible Tracks from Disturbed Air Poly

User Conference 10/30/14 All Named Hurricanes > 1950Storms Intersecting Disturbed Air Origin PolygonDensity of Tracks on Single

Realization

Wind Speed & Timing Distributions

User Conference 11/14/13

A-Lobster PlatformEW-873

As of 0800 Central Time 8/20/15

NHC StormTrack

Forecasting Supply Loss

User Conference 11/14/13Estimate Pre- & Post-

Storm EquilibriaEstimate Short-Term

Losses

Financial Proposal

• ESA is donating time & software• Support we seek is 100% for grad students in

project ($20K)• We are not selling a new service – all results

accessible to all users• We are not trying to compete with private

meteorological services – this is academic research

User Conference 11/14/13