Marketing Metrics — An “ahhhhh…now I get it” book for measuring digital and traditional campaigns.
USE OF NON-TRADITIONAL VALUATION METRICS
Transcript of USE OF NON-TRADITIONAL VALUATION METRICS
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BDO USA, LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership, is the U.S. member of BDO International Limited, a UK
company limited by guarantee, and forms part of the international BDO network of independent member firms.
USE OF NON-TRADITIONAL
VALUATION METRICS
February 6, 2020
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CPE and Support
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With you today
ANTHONY ALFONSOPrincipal, Valuation & Business Analytics
Corporate Finance Co-Leader
602-293-2358
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AGENDA
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Agenda
Traditional Valuation Metrics
Should We Reconsider?
Non-Traditional Valuation Metrics
e-Commerce
Cryptocurrency
Summary
Questions & Conclusion
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TRADITIONAL VALUATION METRICS
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Traditional Valuation Metrics
Income Approach
Discounted cash flow / capitalization of earnings
• Matching discount rate with cash flow
Market Approach
Guideline public company
• Minority transactions
Guideline transactions
• Majority transaction (financial vs. strategic buyers)
Cost Approach
Cost to recreate
Balance sheet analysis
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Traditional Valuation Metrics
Market Approach
Invested capital multiples
• Revenues
• EBITDA
• EBIT
Equity multiples
• Net income
• Book value
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SHOULD WE RECONSIDER?
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Should We Reconsider?
Cold feet from the late 1990s?
Is cash flow king?
Preoccupation with the “network theory,” which states the value of a network
increased exponentially as the series of nodes (computers hosting the network)
increased
Newer terms
• Click through rates
• Eyeballs on screen
Losing money was the mark of success of a dot.com
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Should We Reconsider?
The world is changing, investors should reconsider traditional metrics
At the very least, consider non-traditional metrics
We have moved, but not fully transitioned, to a digital economy
• “Physical” vs. “digital” metrics
• Tangible assets (booked) vs. users (not booked, absent of a transaction)
• Price to book vs. monthly/daily active users
Balance sheets have become largely intangible
• In 1975, 17 percent of the S&P balance sheets were intangible assets
• In 2015, 87 percent of the S&P balance sheets were intangible assets
• Clearly balance sheet components are changing
• Magnitude could be larger if internally generated intangible assets were valued
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Should We Reconsider?
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2020
17
32
68
8087
???
83
68
32
2013
Component Of S&P 500 Market Value
Intangbile Tangible
Source: Ocean Tomo. LLC
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NON-TRADITIONAL VALUATION METRICSe-Commerce / Internet
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Non-Traditional Valuation Metricse-Commerce / Internet
e-Commerce / internet companies have unique valuation metrics
Monthly or daily unique visitors
• Does not necessary calibrate to profit, but indicates broad reach and potential
Customer conversion rate
• Number of signups / unique visitors (daily or monthly)
Bounce rate
• Number of visitors who clicked back or closed browsers / number of site visitors
Monthly recurring revenue
• Users on a subscription plan
Contribution margin (after marketing) per order
• (Revenue – direct variable costs – after marketing) / number of orders
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Non-Traditional Valuation Metricse-Commerce / Internet
e-Commerce / internet companies have unique valuation metrics (cont.)
Customer acquisition costs
• Marketing expense / number of new customers
Lifetime value
• Contribution margin after marketing / churn rate
Lifetime value / customer acquisition cost ratio
• A derivative to the two above metrics
• Measures value related to costs
Payback
• Customer acquisition cost / contribution margin after marketing
• Number of orders to payback the customer acquisition cost
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Non-Traditional Valuation Metricse-Commerce / Internet
e-Commerce / internet companies have unique valuation metrics (cont.)
Viral coefficient
• (Number of existing customers X number of invitations sent per user X conversion
rate) / number of existing customers
• Degree of exponential growth a company experiences by number of referrals sent
per user, the conversion rate of those users, and the total number of current users
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Non-Traditional Valuation Metricse-Commerce / Internet
e-Commerce / internet companies have unique valuation metrics (cont.)
Other metrics
• Average order value
• Monthly average users
• Average revenue per user
• Monthly run rate / revenue run rate
• Churn rate
• Burn rate
Use of these metrics and the comparability of the subject company
peers help select a reasonable revenue multiple
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NON-TRADITIONAL VALUATION METRICSCryptocurrency
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Non-Traditional Valuation MetricsCryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency has valuation metrics that parallel traditional methods
Cost of production
• Adam Hayes’ “cost of production model for bitcoin”
• Cost of producing or mining a cryptoasset may provide an indicator of its lower
bound value
• Assumes no prudent buyer would pay more for a cryptoasset than the cost to
construct a substitute of equal desirability and utility
• Assumes miners will continue to produce only as long as the variable cost of
production is less than or equal to the market price of the mined coin
• The cost of production approach, therefore, seeks to estimate the cost to produce
(or mine) on a per coin basis
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Non-Traditional Valuation MetricsCryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency has valuation metrics that parallel traditional methods
(cont.)
Equation of exchange
• Chris Burniske “cryptoasset valuations”, frequently applied to utility tokens
• Resembles a traditional discounted cash flow, with one fundamental distinction
• Since utility tokens do not generate cash flow, equation of exchange theorizes that
the value a token holder derives from ownership is correlated with the size of the
economy the token is expected to support and in which the token holder will
participate, dubbed current utility value
o Step 1: Estimate the CUV in each year of the forecast period (requires
consideration price, quantity, and velocity)
o Step 2: Forecast of token supply; and,
o Step 3: Selection and application of an appropriate discount rate
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Non-Traditional Valuation MetricsCryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency has valuation metrics that parallel traditional methods
(cont.)
Network value to transactions
• Willy Wo “Introducing NVT ratio (bitcoin’s PE ratio), use it to detect bubbles”
• Focuses on daily transaction volume
• A comparison of how much the network is being valued to how much the network is
being used, similar to a price/earnings ratio
• The components of the NVT ratio are as follows:
o The numerator, the cryptoasset’s network value, the total market value of all
coins or tokens in circulation
o The denominator, the cryptoasset’s on-chain transaction volumes, expressed in
fiat currency. Daily transaction volume is used as a proxy for earnings and
represents the value flowing through the network on a given day.
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SUMMARY
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Summary
Popularity Does Not Equal Profit
Many Companies Are Too Speculative
Sound Business Models Are Essential
Basic Business Fundamentals Cannot Be Ignored
Correlation Is Key
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QUESTIONS AND CONCLUSION
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Questions?
ANTHONY ALFONSO
Principal, Valuation & Business Analytics
Corporate Finance Co-Leader
602-293-2358
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THANK YOU!
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