Use and evaluation of medium-range Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service.

Ferenc WantuchHungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest

E-mail:wantuch.f@met.hu

Talk outline

Introduction

Verification

Two interesting case studies

New products based on ECMWF.

Data flow and structure

NWP data source:

File format: GRIB BUFR

Visualisation

Netcdf file format

Code generalisation process

NWPNWPoutputoutput

Code generalisationCode generalisationby the help of

different method (PP, MOS)visibility forecast,

max, min temperaturescloudiness, ...

Forecast text Forecast text generator programgenerator program

End usersEnd users

Text and dataControl

VerificationVerification

Forecaster Forecaster outputoutput

Verification

A Complex Score was defined.

100% 0%

Min/Max temperature RMSE 0 °C 8 °C

Precip. Existence PC 100% 0%

Precip. Amount MAE 0 kateg. 1.6 kateg.

Average Wind Speed RMSE 0 m/s 6 m/s

Wind Gust RMSE 0 m/s 10 m/s

Cloud Cover RMSE 0 okta 6 okta

Complex Score - 100 % 0 %

Weight

Temperature 25+25%

Precipitation 22,5%

Wind 10%

Cloud Cover 17,5%

10

46

17,5

25 25

12,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Tmin Tmax P.Exist P.Amounty Áv.Windl Wind gust Cloud Covert

%

1.night. 1.day 2.day 3.day 4.day 5.day 6.day

MAE (°C)

1.87

1.31

1.20

-

-

-

-

1.48

1.37

-

1.71

1.53

-

1.91

1.72

-

2.26

2.00

-

2.50

2.24

MAE (°C)

-

-

-

1.77

1.55

1.30

-

1.72

1.63

-

1.89

1.84

-

2.28

2.16

-

2.54

2.43

-

3.12

2.79

Prec.Exist.: PC (%)

79.95

82.73

83.11

76.76

80.36

81.74

-

80.92

78.60

-

73.54

76.28

-

74.23

75.46

-

73.21

74.00

-

71.03

70.77

Prec. amount: MAE

0.19

0.22

0.22

0.23

0.25

0.24

-

0.35

0.33

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Verification 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster

Tmax:

Tmin:

1.night. 1.day 2.day 3.day 4.day 5.day 6.day

Average wind speed: MAE (m/s)

0.73

0.62

0.94

0.67

0.59

0.86

-

0.65

0.84

-

0.69

0.87

-

0.82

0.94

-

0.88

0.97

-

0.98

1.02

Gust: MAE

(m/s)

1.58

1.43

1.61

1.74

1.58

1.65

-

1.78

1.71

-

2.03

1.90

-

2.17

2.03

-

2.42

2.20

-

2.59

2.32

cloud cover : MAE

(okta)

1.08

0.86

0.65

1.08

0.87

0.68

-

0.98

0.79

-

1.10

0.86

-

1.31

1.01

-

1.46

1.12

-

1.65

1.19

Complex Score (%)

74.96

79.81

81.73

75.03

77.68

80.42

-

75.91

77.55

-

73.04

75.22

-

68.69

71.35

-

65.13

68.19

-

60.77

64.82

Verification results 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster

Felhőzet:

Verification results and trends

Verification results and trends

60,00

65,00

70,00

75,00

80,00

85,00

2000

. sze

pt.

2000

. dec

.

2001

. sze

pt.

2001

. dec

.

2002

. sze

pt.

2002

. dec

.

2003

. sze

pt.

2003

. dec

.

2004

. sze

pt.

2004

. dec

.

%

AL EC SzLineáris (AL) Lineáris (EC) Lineáris (Sz)

Complex Score for the first day 2000. júl – 2004. dec. (Country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Synoptic

2000. second period: changes in ECMWF algorithm + model upgrade: 60 => 40 km)

2003. Feb.: Anticyclon with snow surface, ALADIN is unsuccesfull

2004. December cold air pad

Minimum Temperature sesonal ME and RMSE

(2001 – 2004 Hungary mean)

ME: seasonal

RMSE: slowly decrease

EC + Forecaster:Minimum Temperature

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

2001win

2001sum

2002win

2002sum

2003win

2003sum

2004win

2004sum

°C

Tmax

-2

-1,5

-1-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

22,5

3

3,5

2001win

2001sum

2002win

2002sum

2003win

2003sum

2004win

2004sum

°C

Total Cloud Cover

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2001win

2001sum

2002win

2002sum

2003win

2003sum

2004win

2004sum

octa

AL(ME) EC(ME) Fo(ME)AL(RMSE) EC(RMSE) Fo(RMSE)

50

60

70

80

90

100

jan febr márc ápr máj jún júl aug szept okt nov dec

%

AL EC Sz

Complex Score for the first day in 2004-ben (country mean)

ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster

~30%-correction in (cold air pad) inversion situation

Case study I. : Inversion and cold air pad.

(2004. December )

Stratus (cloud base 200-400 m, surface temperature –1, -3 C

Tops of mountains are clear

MSG comp321 sat. picture. 12.12. 12 2004 UTC

and observations ECMWF model forecast.

12 UTC-re dec.12 2004

The last ECMWF prediction.

100

20

SKC is predicted

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

okt. 1

.

okt. 8

.

okt. 1

5.

okt. 2

2.

okt. 2

9.

nov. 5

.

nov. 1

2.

nov. 1

9.

nov. 2

6.

dec. 3

.

dec. 1

0.

dec. 1

7.

dec. 2

4.

dec. 3

1.

(okt

a)

AL EC F

Cloud cover verification. ECMWF - ALADIN – Forecaster (1st day)

2004. October – November – December V

Case study II. : Flash flood in Matra Mountains.

(18.04.2005. )

The ECMWF model involved the possibility of

extreme precipitation

Succesful MM5 modell forecast based on ECMWF

initial condition.

Case study II.

New clusterisation method and early time torch construction depend on ECMWF at HMS.

Varying number of clusters for the Carpathian Basin

Torch construction before the dissemination time.

Clustering for Central European area

developed by Istvan Ihasz at HM S

Varying number of clusters are selected based on 120 hours of 500 hPa geopotential fieldCentral European Area : ( 55.00N 10.00E 40.00N 30.00E )

Clustering forEurope made byECM W F

Clustering forCentral Europemade by HM S

New torch diagrams and probability forecasts for energetic sector.

925 hPa,850 hPa,700 hPa, wind direction ,relativ hum.,temperture,… torches

Probablilty forecasts

Post processing application.

• Program demonstration

• Internet and business application

• End

Thank you for attention !