USDA’s Global Crop and Livestock Estimation Systemmovers Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information...
Transcript of USDA’s Global Crop and Livestock Estimation Systemmovers Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information...
Seth MeyerChairman – World Agricultural Outlook Board
Office of the Chief EconomistUS Department of Agriculture
WASDEUSDA’s Global Crop and Livestock
Estimation System
World Agricultural Outlook Board
• Focal point for USDA market outlook• Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) include analysts from across USDA
• Information for monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) developed from multiple data sources
• WASDE releases are market movers
WASDE and Crop Production and area products are market
movers
Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information System
• Objectivity–Provide unbiased information
• Reliability–Based on sound data and analysis
• Timeliness– Fast flow to users
ICECs (Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees)
• World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair• Agricultural Marketing Service• Economic Research Service• Farm Service Agency• Foreign Agricultural Service• Grain Inspection, Packers and
Stockyards Administration
ICECs include analysts from:
WheatRiceFeed GrainsOilseedsCottonSugarMeat AnimalsPoultryDairy
Nine ICEC committees:
U.S. Crop Production Forecastsvs.
Foreign Crop Production Estimates
• U.S. crop production forecasts based on monthly surveys of farmers and crops. NASS provides a constant update on past conditions
• Foreign crop production estimates involve greater judgment; most are not survey‐based
USDA-NASS10-12-17
Grain Stocks• Grain Stocks are measured quarterly (including the end of the marketing year)
• Changes in grain stocks ‘reveal’ use over the quarter. – Feed Use (and residual)
– Food, Seed, Industrial – Other demands
Crop Forecast TimelineCorn and Soybean Example
Late February, Ag Outlook Forum first look at coming year’s balance sheetEnd March, Prospective Plantings from NASS
May, first WASDE full world balance sheetEnd June, Acreage from NASS
August, First NASS Yield & Area Estimates in Crop Production
NASS yield & area estimates
F M A M J J A S O N D J
Satellite imagery on world crop condition
Enhanced data on world weather
Data on Demand and Trade (stocks, use, exports, imports)
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC)WASDE ProcessWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Office of the Chief Economist
October 12, 2017
Pre‐Planting
Percent of Normal RainfallFeb – Mar – Apr (2017)
Following last year’s soaking rains, near‐ to above‐normal rainfall just prior to planting kept the soil moisture profile full in most areas.
October 12, 2017
Vegetation Health Index (VIIRS) – October 7, 2017
Source: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Poor to Very Poor
Fair to Good
RecentImprovement
October 12, 2017
June 1 – August 31, 2017
14.0”
2.0”
2017 4.0”
8.0”
6.0”
10.0”
30y Avg
2016
12.0”
Temp/Pcp Critical
Temp/Pcp Critical*Based on Mean Planting Date
2017Silk
2016Silk
Heat Sensitive
As the crop was flowering (north) to filling (south), the VHI supported excellent – perhaps even record‐setting – winter
wheat yields for a second consecutive year.
July 12, 2017
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
Winter Wheat
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Source: USGS EarthExplorer; Landsat 8
Feb 5, 2015Feb 5, 2015Feb 2, 2014Feb 2, 2014
Thailand: North Central Plains Region ‐ Chainat Province Landsat Imagery ComparisonThailand: North Central Plains Region ‐ Chainat Province Landsat Imagery Comparison
March 10, 2015
April pictures courtesy ofMohamed Fardaoussi, LES Rabat
March 31, 2017 Near Meknes, Morocco
Picture: Bryan Purcell
Conditions deteriorated rapidlyIn April due to dryness and heat
Conditions Deteriorated in April
MODIS NDVI Comparison to Average:April 23 – April 30, 2017
April 20, 2017 Near Meknes, Morocco
MeknesMorocco
AlgeriaTunisia
NGA MAGE Mobile InterfaceArchive Data PointsMap View of
Morocco
Morocco: Croplands
Wheat/Barley
Grasslands
Orchards
Horticulture
Barren(Small fields)
Source: Croplands classification derived from Landsat imagery (30m) captured Jan‐Mar 2017 and FAS field data March 2017. Processed using Google Earth Engine.
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global Analysis
IPA Division
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Prices on release of Corn Data
Measuring the WASDE effect in Commodities Markets
Source: Real‐time Trading on USDA Announcements: Adjemian and Irwin‐5
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Prices Change
Uncertainty or Volatility is Reduced
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Information/Reports reduce information Asymmetry, Leveling the playing field
Large Grain TradersGrain ExportersLivestock FeedersFood Processors
Farmers
Forecast evaluation
• Review performance periodically for:– Accuracy– Bias– Repetitive errors
• Correct bias and systematic errors.• Publish evaluations on a regular basis.
http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdf
Recent and UpcomingAugust 30, 2017 --- Farm
Income ForecastSeptember 12, 2017 ---
WASDE
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PW-O1 Replace with an India map?Preston, Warren - OCE; 24/08/2017
CORN 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Million Acres
Area Planted 88.0 94.0 90.9
Area Harvested 80.8 86.7 83.5
Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 170.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,370
Production 13,602 15,148 14,255
Imports 68 55 50
Total Supply 15,401 16,940 16,675
Feed & Residual 5,113 5,425 5,475
Food, Seed, Indust. 6,650 6,920 7,000
Ethanol 5,224 5,450 5,500
Exports 1,901 2,225 1,875
Total Use 13,664 14,570 14,350
Ending Stocks 1,737 2,370 2,325
Avg. Farm Price $/bu. $3.61 $3.35($3.25‐$3.45)
$3.30 ($2.90‐3.70)
Potential for Big Data Satellite or Planter data on acres and plant populations Harvester data on area,
yield, moisture, weights Plant health data
Storage bin monitors
Improved data on animal rations, numbers, weights
Global production estimates
Sales data observations
Source: July 2017 WASDE
Market Moves Most on Surveyed DataBut not always
Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information System
• Objectivity–Provide unbiased information
• Reliability–Based on sound data and analysis
• Timeliness– Fast flow to users
USDA Information Quality GuidelinesObjectivity
• Strive to ensure that information disseminated is accurate, reliable, and unbiased and presented in an accurate, clear, complete, and unbiased manner
• Consistent with confidentiality protections, identify the source of the information so that the public can assess whether the information is objective
USDA Information Quality GuidelinesUtility
• Assess the usefulness of the information disseminated to intended users, including the public
• Ensure that transparency is addressed in review of the information prior to its dissemination, when transparency is relevant for assessing the information's usefulness from the public's perspective
• Ensure that disseminated information is accessible to all persons pursuant to the requirements of Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act
USDA Information Quality GuidelinesIntegrity
• Protect information from unauthorized access or revision to ensure that disseminated information is not compromised through corruption or falsification
• Secure information resources by implementing the programs and policies required by the Government Information Security Reform Act
• Maintain the integrity of confidential information and comply with the statutory requirements to protect the information gathered and disseminated, including The Privacy Act of 1974, as amended; The Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995; The Computer Security Act of 1987; The Freedom of Information Act; and OMB Circulars A‐123, A‐127, and A‐130
U.S. Crop Production Forecastsvs.
Foreign Crop Production Estimates
• U.S. crop production forecasts based on monthly surveys of farmers and crops
• Foreign crop production estimates involve greater judgment; most are not survey‐based
CORN 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Million Acres
Area Planted 95.4 90.6 89.2
Area Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.7
Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 166.8
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 821 1,232 1,851
Production 13,829 14,216 13,630
Imports 36 25 25
Total Supply 14,686 15,472 15,506
Feed & Residual 5,034 5,250 5,300
Food, Seed, Indust. 6,503 6,547 6,560
Ethanol 5,134 5,200 5,200
Exports 1,917 1,825 1,900
Total Use 13,454 13,622 13,760
Ending Stocks 1,232 1,851 1,746
Avg. Farm Price $/bu. $4.46 $3.65($3.55‐$3.75)
$3.50 ($3.20‐3.80)
Potential for Big Data Planter data on acres and
plant populations Harvester data on area,
yield, moisture, weights Plant health data
Storage bin monitors
Improved data on animal rations
Global production estimates
Sales data observations
Source: May 2016 WASDE
Example: Citizen Science Informs Drought Monitor
Opportunities and Challenges
• Big Data is poised to continue to improve efficiency and effectiveness of USDA reporting
• Information gleaned through Big Data must be tempered by skilled analysis and validation across multiple sources
• Maintenance of information quality –objectivity, utility, integrity– is tantamount