USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011
17
The USDA Cotton Outlook for 2011/12 James Johnson Foreign Agricultural Service United States Department of Agriculture USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011
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The USDA Cotton Outlook for 2011/12 James Johnson Foreign Agricultural Service United States Department of Agriculture. USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011. Global Outlook. World Production Exceeds Consumption, as Prices Decline . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011
The USDA Cotton Outlookfor 2011/12
James JohnsonForeign Agricultural Service
United States Department of Agriculture
USDA Agricultural Outlook ForumInteragency Cotton Estimates Committee
February 25, 2011
Global Outlook
World Production Exceeds Consumption, as Prices Decline
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 est. 2011/12 proj.
cent
s/lb
s.
mil.
bal
es
Production Consumption A-index (FE)
World Production Up Nearly 12% in 2011/12
Rising cotton prices combined with a return to normal weather will raise production more than 12 million bales.
Production higher in all major cotton-producing countries.
Over half of the increase accounted for by China and India.
Production Higher in All Major Producers(Percent increase 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 )
0
1
2
3
4
5
Prod
uctio
n In
crea
se, m
il. b
ales
13.3 %
9.6 %
6.5 %12.2 % 10.8 %
12.5 % 14.3 %
World Consumption Climbs
80
90
100
110
120
130
98
109
117
124 123
110
119 117120
mil.
bal
es
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Perc
ent,
GD
P
Perc
ent,
cotto
n
Sources: USDA, International Monetary Fund, and GlobalInsight .
Cotton
GDP
Economic Growth Indicates Higher Consumption
A-Index Reaches Unprecedented Levels
Aug-06
Oct-06Jan
-07
May-07
Jul-07
Oct-07Jan
-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08Jan
-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09Jan
-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10Jan
-110
50
100
150
200
250
Cen
ts p
er p
ound
Cotton-to-Synthetic Price Ratio Rises
0.27 0.31 0.310.36
0.53
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Ratio of Cotlook A-Index to PCI World Synthetic Fiber Index
Aug-Dec.
Continued Low Stocks-to-Consumption Ratio
Highlights Tight Stock Situation
57.7
48.4 49.0
55.553.0
50.3 49.2
55.0
37.1 36.7
41.9
30
40
50
60
Perc
ent
U.S. Outlook
2011/12 U.S. Supply and Demand, (mil. bales)
Item 2010/11 2011/12 Change (%)
Beg. stks 2.9 1.9 -34.5
Production 18.3 19.5 +6.6
Imports 0 0 0
Total supply 21.3 21.4 +0.5
Consumption 3.6 3.5 -2.8
Exports 15.8 15.0 -5.1
Total Use 19.4 18.5 -4.6
Ending stks 1.9 2.9 +52.6
Stocks-to-use (%) 9.8 15.7
Farm price (cents/lb.) 81.5 110.0 +35.0
Projected U.S. Area and Production Up
A 19-percent increase in acres planted to 13 million.
With average abandonment of 11 percent, harvested acres would be 11.5 million.
Average yield per harvested acre of 810 lbs.
Production is forecast at 19.5 million bales.
Higher Abandonment Rate Expected
16.6%
3.1%
20.1%17.7%
2.4%
11.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Remains Below World
Are Cotton Prices That High?
0
20
40
60
80
100
12017
9017
9918
0818
1718
2618
3518
4418
5318
6218
7118
8018
8918
9819
0719
1619
2519
3419
4319
5219
6119
7019
7919
8819
9720
06
Cent
s per
pou
nd, n
omin
al
Year
NY Price U.S. Farm Price Period Average
Thank You
