U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook Commercial Planning & Analysis Department May 12, 2010.

U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook

Commercial Planning & Analysis Department

May 12, 2010

$14.0

$14.1

$14.2

$14.3

$14.4

$14.5

$14.6

$14.7

$14.8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate

U.S. Real Gross Domestic ProductTrillions of ConstantQ1:10 Dollars

$14.6

$14.3

$14.8

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Big Picture:

The recession’s over, but output remains 1.2% below the 2008 peak

Linked Qtr Annualized Percent Change

2009 Q1 -6.4%

Q2 -0.7%

Q3 2.2%

Q4 5.6%

2010 Q1 3.2%

Q1 Growth Drivers

Stronger consumer spending +2.6 pts

Change in private inventories +1.6 pts

Stronger investment in equipment & software

+0.8 pts

Stronger exports (gross)+0.7 pts

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2.4%

RECESSION

Inflation-Adjusted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Mar

Consumers Are Peeking Out of the

Foxhole…Real spending in March

grew at fastest rate since Aug. 2007

2.9% averagesince Jan 1990 R

ECESSION

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

RECESSION

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Industrial Production - Manufacturing

Production

Source: Federal Reserve

Industrial Production (R) Capacity Utilization (L) Year-over-Year % Change

…While Manufacturers Are

Easing Off The BrakesAs demand improves,

factories are ramping up production

CapacityUtilization

Y-o-Y Chgin Industrial Production

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Unemployment Rate

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Apr

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.4%Mar ‘07

RECESSION

RECESSION June ’03

6.3%

9.9%

But not enough to keep the jobless rate from remaining

near a 26-year high…

RECESSIONJune ’92

7.8%

5.7% averagesince Jan 1990

How’s Western NY

performing in this

environment?

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

97.4%

95.3%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Based on 12-month moving average employment

Western Portion of Upstate NY

(counties west of Utica-Rome metro area)

UnitedStates


Mar

Mar ’08104.5%

Oct ’0898.9%

Less Boom, Less Bust…Net Change From Employment Peak

United States -7.1 points

Western NY -3.6 points

Relative Change in Private Sector Employment Since

January 2002Western New York vs. United States

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

7.8% (Mar)

9.9%

UnitedStates

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State Department of Labor NYS data seasonally adjusted by M&T

The regional jobless rate remains nearly two

percentage points below the U.S. average

WesternPortion

of Upstate

NY

Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment RateWestern Portion of Upstate NY vs. U.S.

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Private Sector Employment GrowthWestern Portion of Upstate NY vs. U.S.

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

-2.0%

United States

-1.3%

Mar2007 2008 2009 ‘10

WesternPortion

of Upstate

NY


WNY job losses are easing and remain below the

U.S. average

Illinois

Georgia

Wisconsin

Oklahoma

Arizona

Kansas

California

Colorado

Nevada

Wyoming

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Private Sector

Employment U.S. States – First Quarter 2009 vs. 2010


Top 10 States Bottom 10 States

0.7%

-0.2%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-1.7%

-1.9%

-1.9%

-2.1%

-2.2%

-2.3%

-3.8%

-3.9%

-4.1%

-4.2%

-4.2%

-4.2%

-4.3%

-4.7%

-5.3%

-6.0%

Alaska

North Dakota

New Hampshire

Vermont

Western Upstate NY

New York

Downstate NY

Iowa

Louisiana

Virginia

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Utica-Rome

Buffalo

Syracuse

Albany

Poughkeepsie / Newburgh

New York City

Rochester

United States

BinghamtonSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Private Sector Employment NYS Metro Areas

– First Quarter 2009 vs. 2010

Buffalo Area

Trends


Private Sector Employment GrowthBuffalo Metro Area vs. United States

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M


-2.0%

-1.1%Buffalo

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

Job losses are easing and remain below the U.S.

average

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%


Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. and Buffalo Area Unemployment Rate

8.0% (Mar)

9.9%

Buffalo

UnitedStates

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State Department of Labor

Note: Buffalo data seasonally adjusted by M&T

Like most upstate NY metros, Buffalo’s

jobless rate remains below the U.S.

average—and seems to be diverging from the national trend

2007 2008 2009 ‘10


Existing Home Price AppreciationBuffalo-Niagara Falls Metro Area vs. United States

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

United States

-4.7%

1.8%Buffalo

Note: Excludes homes financed with non-conforming loans (subprime, I.O., jumbos, etc.); Includes refis

Why is Buffalo Doing So Well?

Local price appreciation has topped the U.S. norm since

2007—helping to insulate WNY from major swings in

consumer spending6th highest appreciation out of 299Metro Areas measured in Q4 2009

100 Largest U.S. Metro Areas Buffalo-NF

Single Family Home BuildingPermits Per 100,000 Residents

Buffalo vs. 100 Largest U.S. Metro Areas

* Based on 2008 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Less Boom, Less BustWNY home builders avoided speculative over building,

preventing a housing bubble from forming

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%



Construction EmploymentBuffalo Metro Area vs. United States


-11.3%

-0.6%

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

Buffalo

Net Result:Construction job

losses are less of a drag on the Buffalo

economy

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%



Retail Trade EmploymentBuffalo Metro Area vs. United States


-1.2%

3.6%

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

Buffalo

Another PositiveAs consumer spending

stabilizes, retail hiring starts to rebound

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

2009 2010

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Automobile Traffic Into U.S. via Four Buffalo Area Bridges (Left Scale – RED)

Exchange Value of Canadian Dollar Per U.S. Dollar (Right Scale – BLUE)

Stronger Canadian Dollar Lends a Hand…

Sources: Federal Reserve, Niagara Falls and Peace Bridge Commissions

CanadianDollar is at

Par with U.S.

Change in AutomobileCrossings

Can. Dollar Exchange Rate In USD

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Buffalo

73.9

60.2

Consumer ConfidenceBuffalo Metro Area vs. United States

Index: 1996 Q1 = 100

UnitedStates

Sources: Siena Research Institute, University of Michigan

A Long, Slow Climb Ahead

Confidence is slowly improving, but remains well below pre-recession

levels

Rochester Area

Trends


Private Sector Employment GrowthRochester Metro Area vs. United States

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%



-2.0%-1.8%Rochester

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

Job losses are easing and remain below the U.S.

average

Share of Total Private Sector Employee Compensation*

Health Care & Education Payroll IncomeRochester Metro Area vs. United States

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Rochester1,800 net new jobs created

over the past 12 months (+1.8%)

United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

23.0%

15.9%

* 4-Quarter running totalSources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

A Nice Shock Absorber…

Health care & education are a major source of

stability for the Rochester economy

Share of Total Private Sector Employee Compensation*

Manufacturing Payroll IncomeRochester Metro Area vs. United States

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%


Rochester6,100 net jobs lost

over the past 12 months (-9.3%)

United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

22.3%

13.6%


…To Help Offset Factory Layoffs

Industrial payrolls continue to shrink, but remain a major income

source

1.6%

2.1%

-0.2%

-2.0%

-1.1%

-4.8%

-2.4%

-3.2%

-9.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Health Care Services

Private Education

Financial Activities

Construction

Retail (Ex. Food Stores)

Wholesale Trade

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional &Business Services

Manufacturing

PercentageChange

Manufacturing layoffs account for 71% of

2010 job losses, even though they make up

just 12% of total employment

Year-Over-Year Absolute Change

Rochester Area Job Gain/Loss – Q1 2010

Total Private Sector Payroll Income

Rochester Metropolitan AreaManufacturing vs. Education & Health Care

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$3.4

$3.6

$3.8

$4.0

$4.2

$4.4

$4.6


Manufacturing

Health Care& Education

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

$3.7$3.8


Billions

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

NYS Manufacturing Activity IndexIndex Numbers Above 0 = Expansion

31.9 Increase Decrease NET

2009 Oct 51.1% 17.6% +33.4

Nov 41.3% 19.0% +22.3

Dec 24.5% 20.0% +4.5

2010 Jan 33.1% 17.2% +15.9

Feb 41.6% 16.7% +24.9

Mar 43.3% 20.4% +22.9

Apr 47.5% 15.6% +31.9

Positive OutlookNYS manufacturing

activity (most of which is Upstate) is rising

once again

2008 2009 2010

10.9%

12.4%

15.7%

17.4%

23.2%ROCHESTER

Buffalo

Binghamton

Syracuse

U.S. MetroArea Average

Manufacturing Share ofGross Metropolitan Product - 2008

Upstate NY Metro Areas vs. United States

Industrial Impact

Stronger factory output should

provide a key boost to the Upstate NY

economy during the second half of 2010

The New Normal?With less consumer

spending, real sales tax receipts

have shifted downward by 8.5%

since mid-2008 But are up 0.8%

since November 2009

$510

$520

$530

$540

$550

$560

$570


2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Constant March 2010

Dollars(millions)

Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Orleans & Wayne counties

Note: data are cash sales tax collections (excluding EFTs) for county governments only—excluding cities and school districts

Sources: NYS Department of Taxation & Finance, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

$525

Inflation Adjusted 12-Month Running Total

County Sales Tax Collections in theRochester Metropolitan Area

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Rochester

26.8%

14.5%


Consumer ConfidenceRochester Metro Area vs. United States

Positive OutlookConfidence is starting to

improve, easing downward pressure on household

spending

Sources: Siena Research Institute, University of Michigan

United States

Syracuse Area

Trends

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%



-2.0%

-1.2%


Private Sector Employment GrowthSyracuse Metro Area vs. United States

A Recurring PatternJob losses have been less severe than the national

norm

Syracuse

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%


Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. and Syracuse Area Unemployment Rate

8.0% (Mar)

9.9%

Syracuse

UnitedStates


Note: Syracuse data seasonally adjusted by M&T

Consistent with other upstate metro areas,

Syracuse’s jobless rate remains well below the U.S.

average

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

4.0%

1.7%

2.2%

3.5%

-1.9%

-8.8%

-5.9%

-5.8%

-6.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Education

Health Care Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Construction

Retail

Transportation

Wholesale Trade

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

PercentageChange

Transportation & wholesale trade layoffs

account for 37% of 2010 job losses, even though they make up

just 7% of total employment

Year-Over-Year Absolute Change

Syracuse Area Job Gain/Loss – Q1 2010

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%


Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * 12-month moving average

17.9%

22.8%

Percentage of Average Private Sector Jobs*

Health Care & Private Education Employment

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United StatesSimilar to RochesterEvolving labor market

insulates Syracuse economy

Syracuse

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

UnitedStates

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%



-11.3%

4.8%


Construction EmploymentSyracuse Metro Area vs. United States

Another Positive…Building activity

continues to support local economy

Syracuse

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%



-2.7%

-7.4%


Wholesale Trade & Transportation Job Growth

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States…But Also a Negative

Local job losses remain well above the U.S.

average

Syracuse

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

United States

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Syracuse

73.9

63.6

Consumer Confidence IndexSyracuse Metro Area vs. United States

82.2

54.8

Slowly Getting Back On Our Feet…

Consumer sentiment is improving — but will

remain fragile until the jobless rate begins to

shrink

Sources: Sienna Research Institute, University of Michigan

United States

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%


Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * 12-month moving average

18.3%

21.1%

Percentage of Average Private Sector Jobs*

State and Local Government Employment

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United StatesPotential Storm CloudWill NYS budget woes hurt state & local employment

levels?

Syracuse

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

UnitedStates

2010-11 Economic Outlook

?

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Economic Cycle Research Institute

U.S. Leading Economic Index

Index Components

Money supply (M2)

Commodity prices

Mortgage purchase applications

Corporate bond quality spread

NYSE Composite Index

Ten-year Treasury yield

Initial jobless claims

Indicates a turning point in the economic cycle when changes in the directionof the index are persistent, pronounced, and pervasive over several months. Designed to turn down before a recession and turn up before an expansion.

134.7

Apr 30

Index1992 = 100

6-9 Month Outlook

Further growth appears to be on

the horizon…

Weather-related

dip

2007 2008 2009 2010

Institute For Supply Management

U.S. Manufacturing Activity IndexIndex Numbers Greater Than 50 = Expansion

60.4

"Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders, as the New Orders Index has averaged 61.6 percent for the past 10 months.”

“…signs for employment in the sector continue to improve as the Employment Index registered its fifth consecutive month of growth.”

“…Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs arepositive for continued growth." Norbert Ore—ISM Business Survey Committee chairman

…led by a rebound in manufacturing, where activity

expanded for the 9th consecutive month in April

Inflation-Adjusted Percentage Change From Previous Quarter at Annualized Rate

Fixed Investment in Equipment &Software by U.S. Businesses

Business Spending Takes

the LeadCapex is rebounding

as firms move forward with

necessary investments that were postponed over past several

years2007 2008 2009 2010

FORECAST

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis M&T Bank forecast

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 09Q4

U.S. Household Debt Service RatioAs a Percent of Disposable Income

12.60%

Q1 200813.92%

Average Since 198012.07%

Source: Federal Reserve

Sobering Reality Consumers will continue to repair battered balance sheets by saving

& paying down debt for at least another year, keeping a lid on

economic growth

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

-0.6%

RECESSION

Inflation-Adjusted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

U.S. Personal Income Ex. Transfer Payments

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Mar

Income Drag Persists

Ex. government payments, real income

remained below year-ago levels for the 26th

consecutive month

2.3% averagesince Jan 1990 R

ECESSION

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

RECESSION

6.7

8.0

Months’ Supply of Available Homes

U.S. Single Family Homes For Sale

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NAR

RECESSION

Existing Homes New HomesMonths Supply At Current Sales Rate

RECESSION

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Mar

Jan:0912.4

Housing DragThe housing

market will face significant

pressure for at

least another year as inventory levels remain well above

historic norms

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast

FORECAST

10.0%

9.5%

8.9%

Labor DragThe jobless

rate will remain

elevated for an extended

period

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, M&T estimates

$14.0

$14.2

$14.4

$14.6

$14.8

$15.0

$15.2

$15.4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate

U.S. Real Gross Domestic ProductTrillions of ConstantQ1:10 Dollars

$15.4

$14.3

$14.8

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, M&T estimates

Linked Qtr Annualized Percent Change

2010 Q1 3.2%

Q2 2.9%

Q3 3.0%

Q4 3.1%

2011 Q1 3.1%

Q2 2.9%

Q3 3.1%

Q4 3.2%FORECAST

$14.9

Modest RecoveryThe economy should

expand by 3.0% in 2010 and by 3.1% in 2011—positive, but below

historic norms

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

Federal Government ExpendituresAs a Percent of GDP

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Uncle Sam Lends a Hand

Fiscal policy helps support 2010-11

growth— but what comes next?

2006 7.4%

2007 2.8%

2008 9.3%

2009 17.9%

2010 5.8%

2011 3.0%

Year-Over-YearSpending Increase 25.1%

CBO

FORECAST

25.4%

0.8% 1.4% 2.5% 1.3% (1.5%) (3.4%) (3.5%) (2.6%) (1.9%) (1.2%) (3.2%) (9.9%) (10.6%) (8.3%)

Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP


U.S. Pre-Tax Corporate Profit ForecastOver Next 12 Months

2009 2010

A Critical HandoffBusiness profits will

have to continue rising to offset the stimulus

wind down

United States -2.4% 3.1% 2.6%

Canada -2.6% 3.1% 3.2%

Mexico -6.5% 4.2% 4.5%

Euro Zone -4.1% 1.0% 1.5%

China 8.7% 10.0% 9.9%

India 5.7% 8.8% 8.4%

World -0.6% 4.2% 4.3%

Real GDP Growth Forecast by Region

2009 2010 2011Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2010

Fed Funds 0.12 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

3-Month LIBOR 0.27 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9

1-Year Treasury 0.35 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 10-Year Treasury 3.46 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.8

30-Year Mortgage 4.92 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3

Inflation – CPI 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0

2009 2010 2011

2010-11 Interest Rate Forecast

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Questions? [email protected]

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1,000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Western NY* Private Sector Employment

ManufacturingJobs (000s)

Non-ManufacturingJobs (000s)

Net Loss in Manufacturing

Jobs: 98,400 (-41.0%)

Net Gain inNon-Manufact. Jobs:

59,000 (+6.4%)

Manufacturing (L) Non-Manufacturing (R)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data are 12-month moving averages

Job Growth Hokie Pokie

Factory job losses offset gains in non-manufacturing employment

* Buffalo, Rochester & Syracuse metro areas

Relative Decrease in ManufacturingEmployment Since January 1999

Western New York vs. United States

-41.0%

-32.7%

Western NY*RECESSION

RECESSION

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Data are 12-month moving averages

Western NY factory employment has declined at a 4.7% annual rate since 1999—modestly faster than the 3.5%

nation average decrease



United States

Manufacturing Share of Private Employment

Western & Downstate New York vs. United States


10.9%

12.7%

Western NY*

Downstate NY 4.0%

United States

Despite the long-term decline in factory jobs,

the WNY region still relies on manufacturing to a greater extent than

the U.S. overall


99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1.8%2.2%

Mar

Tortoise vs. Hare…

Job growth outside the factory sector

has been less volatile than for the

U.S. overall


Increase in Private Non-Manufacturing Jobs

Since January 2002 Western NY* United States

IncreaseIn Average

NumberOf Jobs

From TotalAt Start of

2002


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

IncreaseIn Average

NumberOf Jobs


2002

Net Gain: 12,700 jobs

8.4%


Increase in Professional & Business Services Jobs

Since January 2002

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10Mar


Opportunity #1WNY has topped the U.S. growth

rate over the past 6 years—can we continue to build on this progress?

0.5%

Western NY* United States


0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

Opportunity #2:Job creation at WNY

colleges & universities has also topped the U.S.

norm—how can we leverage this advantage?

IncreaseIn Average

NumberOf Jobs


2002

Net Gain: 14,500 jobs

25.8%


Increase in Private Education Employment

Since January 2002


22.8%

Western NY United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10Mar


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

Opportunity / Challenge:While health care has been a steady source of job creation,

WNY has not kept pace with the national norm— can we ramp

up growth with further investment in our medical sector?

IncreaseIn Average

NumberOf Jobs


2002

Net Gain:19,700

jobs

11.7%


Increase in Private Health Care Services Jobs

Since January 2002


22.7%

Western NY United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10Mar

Note: includes social services


U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook Commercial Planning & Analysis Department May 12, 2010.

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Transcript of U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook Commercial Planning & Analysis Department May 12, 2010.