U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: December 2013

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

An abnormally slow December caps off the year with a range of bright spots as well as challenges

U.S. employment situation: December 2013

Release date: January 10, 2014

What were this month’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

OVERVIEW

• The U.S. economy added 74,000

jobs in December.

• Unemployment fell 30 basis points

to 6.7 percent.

• 86.5 percent of jobs have been

recovered; now less than 0.9

percent below previous peak

employment.

• Office-using employment is 47.1

percent higher than previous

peak.

• Trade, PBS, leisure and

manufacturing the largest

contributors to monthly growth.

• PBS, retail trade, leisure and

hospitality and education and

health the largest contributors to

year-on-year growth.

• Service-providing industries see

best year during the recovery

(+2.0 million jobs).

• Unemployment down to 7.1

percent for high school graduates

with no college; stable and much

lower for degree holders.

• Tech still posting growth well

above the national average.

• Initial unemployment insurance

claims wobble near recovery lows.

• Consumer confidence sees 6.1-

point rebound in line with drop in

unemployment.

• Fastest-growing metro areas sees

some geographic expansion.

• Total unemployment stuck at

13.1 percent, still very elevated

compared to historic norms.

• Private sector responsible for all

gains throughout the year,

however seeing slowdown.

• Information’s 12,000-job monthly

contraction pushes down office-

using gains and share of overall

one-month net job growth.

• Labor force participation rate

nationally is down to 62.8

percent and for high school

graduates down to 58.0 percent.

• Temporary help services sees

40,400 new jobs added in

December, surpasses 2.8 million.

• Midwest and East Coast markets

still lag rest of national recovery

Overview Bright spots Challenges

December saw the addition of only 74,000 jobs, the

second-lowest monthly gain throughout the recovery 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

110,

000

220,

000 24

6,00

0

251,

000

54,0

00 84

,000

96,0

00

85,0

00

202,

000

112,

000

157,

000

223,

000

311,

000

271,

000

205,

000

112,

000

125,

000

87,0

00

153,

000

165,

000

138,

000

160,

000

247,

000

219,

000

148,

000

332,

000

142,

000

199,

000

176,

000

172,

000

89,0

00

238,

000

175,

000 20

0,00

0

241,

000

74,0

00

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-11

Jan-

11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Feb

-13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

Three-month net change down to 515,000…but

unemployment drops 30 basis points to 6.7 percent

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Une

mpl

oym

ent

rate

(%

)

One

-mon

th n

et c

hang

e (t

hous

ands

)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

74 months into the cycle, total employment is now less

than 0.9 percent below prior peak levels

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered from the

recession; now 1.2 million jobs below pre-recession peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost

during recession…

Office-using jobs gained

during recovery…

All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much

more tech- and management-centered


7

OVERVIEW

-16.0

-13.0

-12.0

-1.0

-0.6

0.0

1.0

1.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

6.0

9.0

9.0

15.4

19.0

40.4

55.3

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Construction

Government

Information

Health care and social assistance

Transportation and warehousing

Education and health services

Other services

Motor vehicles and parts

Nondurable goods

Financial activities

Mining and logging

Durable goods

Leisure and hospitality

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Professional and business services

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Trade, PBS, manufacturing and leisure contribute the

majority gains in an otherwise slow month


8

OVERVIEW

Retail trade PBS

Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality

Financial activities Education and health

All other jobs

Core subsectors added more jobs

than monthly net total.

-25.0

-4.0

1.0

30.0

31.0

39.8

42.2

76.0

77.0

84.0

95.0

122.0

247.4

280.2

327.0

380.8

390.0

637.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

Information

Nondurable goods

Other services

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Financial activities

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Retail trade

Leisure and hospitality

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade Education and health

Financial services Manufacturing

All other jobs

Over the year, however, core growth areas PBS, leisure,

retail trade and education and health remain dominant


9

OVERVIEW

Core subsectors added 86.7 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities

growing, but at national rates of growth

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through November 2013.

10

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

OVERVIEW

Service-providing industries see best year during the

recovery (+2.0 million jobs)

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

One

-mon

th n

et c

hang

e (t

hous

ands

)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

High school graduates see unemployment fall to 7.1

percent; rate stable, but much lower, for degree holders

3.3%

7.1%


12

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing

slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth


13

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims fall to new lows,

wobbling between 330,000 and 360,0000 per week

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Initial claims 4-week moving average

4 week moving average below 400,000 claims

(consistently) means economy is adding jobs

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

BRIGHT SPOT

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

New help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

Online help wanted ads jump by 126,500 as

unemployment drops to a recovery-low in December

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board

15

BRIGHT SPOT

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer

confidence index increased 6.1 points in December

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

16

BRIGHT SPOT

After a year dominated by the Sunbelt, a more varied

landscape of employment growth emerges


17

Tampa

3.3% Houston

3.1%

Silicon Valley

2.9%

New York

2.8%

Dallas

2.7%

Austin

2.7%

BRIGHT SPOT

Overall wage growth and a falling number of

discouraged workers point in a positive direction


18

BRIGHT SPOT

+$12.07 (+1.5%)

Average weekly earnings are

on the up year-on-year

+5.2% y-o-y

Management and technical consulting

among the strongest components of PBS

-151,000 (-14.1%)

The number of discouraged workers has

fallen by 14.1 percent year-on-year

-140bp

PBS-related unemployment is down

140 basis points year-on-year

Total unemployment remains steady at 13.1 percent for

the month, but trending downward

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


19

CHALLENGE

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

58

59

60

61

62

63

College graduates

High school grads no college

High school graduates’ participation rate drops to just

58.0 percent, with college graduate rate stable C

olle

ge g

radu

ates

High school graduates


20

CHALLENGE

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Change in '000s jobs

Private sector is responsible for all gains (101.1 percent)

in 2013; government jobs continue their contraction

Private sector hiring up 4.5

million since December 2011

Public sector shed 112,000

workers since November 2011


21

CHALLENGE

Growth in trade and overall diversification of growth

push down office-using industries’ share of gains


22

CHALLENGE

Information’s 12,000-job contraction reduces growth in

office-using industries

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In December 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs.


23

CHALLENGE

Temporary help services posts sharp jump in

employment, surpasses 2.8 million for the first time ever

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


24

CHALLENGE

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest

of the country


Cleveland

-0.8%

Milwaukee

0.1%

Oakland-

East Bay

0.3%

Westchester

County

0.5%

St. Louis

0.5%

CHALLENGE

Other supplementary indicators show that many

challenges still remain


26

+2,893,000 (+3.2%)

The number of people out of the workforce

has risen by 3.2 percent year-on-year

-6 minutes

On average, employees are working six fewer

minutes (-0.1 hours) year-on-year

-1,000 jobs (-0.0%)

Legal services has seen a 12-month net

contraction of 1,000 jobs

62.8% (-20bp)

The labor force participation rate fell

20 basis points to 62.8 percent

CHALLENGE

©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office & Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: December 2013

Economy & Finance

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