U.S Turkish Collaboration Off to a Shaky Start

7/31/2015 U.S.TurkishCollaborationOfftoaShakyStart|Stratfor

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/usturkishcollaborationshakystart 1/34

KeyAnalyses

Obama'sStrategyMeetsRealityinIraqandSyria

TheIslamicState'sGainsMaskItsWeakness

TheIslamicState'sGrowthHasLimits

ArabMilitaries'WeaknessesaretheIslamicState'sStrengths

WhySunniUnityIsaMyth

WhyShiiteExpansionWillBeShortLived

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U.S.-Turkish Collaboration Off to a Shaky StartAnalysis JULY30,2015|22:30GMT Print TextSize

AnalysisEditor'sNote:Stratforcloselymonitorsconflictzonesfromageopoliticalperspective.WhatisperhapsthemostvolatileconflicttodaycanbefoundintheterritoriesofIraqandSyriathatarecontrolledbytheIslamicState.Thoughtheseareasarecartographicallydistinct,theyarefunctionallylinked:Sunnitribalstructures,rebeloperations,Kurdishinterests,externalinfluencesandthesuzeraintyoftheIslamicStatebindthemtogetherasasingle,coherenttheater.

TheIslamicStatecapitalizedonthechaosoftheSyriancivilwarandtheinadequacyofIraqisecurityforcestotakeoveralargeswathoftheMiddleEast.Aftermakingsomeimpressivegains,includingthetakingoftheIraqicityofMosul,theIslamicStatenowfindsitselfinanincreasinglydifficultposition,againstwhichawidearrayofopponentsarealigned.Nonetheless,thegroupisuniquelyresilientand,assuch,remainsextremelydangerousandunpredictable.

InadditiontoexaminingthecombatantsinsidetheSyriaIraqbattlespace,Stratforalsotracksthepoliticalmachinations,negotiationsandgoalsofoutsidethebattlespace,includingIran,Russia,theGulfmonarchiesandtheUnitedStates.Forthefirsttime,inoneplace,Stratforisprovidingroutineupdatescoveringthegains,lossesandextentoftheIslamicState'ssocalledcaliphate.

3Like



TheGeopoliticsoftheSyrianCivilWar

ARiskyU.S.ProxyBattleAgainstIslamicState

July 30

United States, Turkey, Syria

AU.S.backedrebelgroupknownasDivision30releasedastatementclaimingthatitsleader,Col.NadimalHassan,waskidnappedbyalQaedaaffiliateJabhatalNusra.AlHassanwasonamissiontoestablishconnectionswithotherrebelgroupsnearAleppowhenhewascaptured,alongwithanumberofhiscolleagues.Mostofthe54graduatesfromtheU.S.sponsoredtrainandequipprograminTurkeycamefromDivision30.

ThisisamajorsetbackduringthefirstweekofformalizedcooperationbetweenTurkeyandtheUnitedStates.Afteryearsofpoliticalimpasse,thecountrieshavefinallyagreedtoworktogethertofighttheIslamicStateinSyriaandIraq.TheUnitedStatesandTurkeyhopethatcooperationwilladvancetheSyriancivilwartoapositionwherebyanegotiatedsettlementcouldremovePresidentBasharalAssadfrompower.

ThoughAnkaraandWashingtonareactivelyworkingtogether,thereisnoagreementonwhichSyrianrebelgroupswithwhomtopartner.TurkeyismorepragmaticthantheUnitedStatesaboutwhotoincludeandwouldliketoaccommodategroupssuchasJabhatalNusra,whichisalreadyaneffectivefightingforce.ButWashingtonisextremelywaryofassociatingwithanorganizationdirectlylinkedtoalQaeda.

JabhatalNusramostlikelystagedthekidnappingtomakeapointwhichistohighlighttheirrelevancyandensurethegroupisnotleftoutofU.S.Turkishdiscussionsoverwhichgrouptosupport.MeaningfulresourcesarescarceinSyria,sobackingfrommajorcountriesliketheUnitedStatesorTurkeyisextremelydesirable.WhetheralHassanandhiscohortarereleasedwillindicatehowcooperativeJabhatalNusraislikelytobeinthefuture.

OverallU.S.TurkishcooperationispredicatedontheideathatAnkarawillbeabletogetSyrianrebelgroupstocooperatewitheachother.Thisiskeytoachievinganykindofsuccessontheground.WashingtonandAnkaraprovideaidandairsupporttoselectrebelgroups,butneitherTurkeynortheUnitedStatesiswillingtocommitgroundforcesinsignificantnumbers.IfAnkaraisunableorunwillingtofacilitateasolutiontotherebelpartneringissue,orselectsunpalatableallies,WashingtoncouldwellbackawayfromTurkey,withdrawingU.S.forcesfromIncirlikairbaseandreinvigoratingitsrelationshipwiththeKurds.

July 29

Iraq, Turkey

SaboteursattackedapipelinetransportingcrudeoilbetweentheIraqicityofKirkukandtheTurkishMediterraneanportofCeyhan,haltingtheflowofoil,TurkishEnergyMinisterTanerYildizsaid.Theattack,whichtookplaceneartheIraqiborderinTurkeysSirnakprovince,comesadayaftermilitantsattackedanaturalgaspipelineinAgriprovince,neartheIranianborder.TheKurdistanRegionalGovernmentinIraqreliesonpartoftheKirkukCeyhanpipelineforitsownexports.Thepipelinehasbeencarryingaround300,000barrelsofoilperday,downfromitsmaximumoperationalcapacityof400,000barrelsdaily,becauseofotherrecentattacks,accordingtoIraqigovernmentfigures.

IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadisaidthathiscouncilofministersviewstheongoingTurkishcampaignof



airstrikesinnorthernIraqasadangerousescalationthatviolatesIraqisovereignty.TheprimeministersaidviaTwitterthatthecounciliscommittednottoallowanyattackonTurkeyfromIraqiterritoryandcalledonAnkaratorespectgoodrelationsbetweenthetwocountries.AnIraqiKurdishofficialalsocondemnedTurkeysrecentattacksagainstmilitantKurdishtargetsinIraq,SyriaandinsideTurkeyitself,callingforKurdishlocalsinDohukprovincetoprotestagainstTurkishmilitarybasesintheregion.Theofficial,PatrioticUnionofKurdistanCentralCouncilchiefAdilMurad,saidTurkeyslongestablishedmilitarypresenceinDohukamountstoaforeignoccupation.

Syria

IsraeliaircraftstruckacarinaruralpartofQuneitraintheSyrianGolanHeights,killingthreepeople.AreportbytheHezbollahlinkedAlManarsaidthestrikewascarriedoutbyanIsraelidrone,andthatthetwodeceasedweremembersofamilitiathatsupportsSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheIsraelimilitarywouldnotcommentonthereport.IsraelwillcontinuetoproveintegraltoU.S.aimsinSyriabyalsopreventingTurkeyfrombeingabletoclaimtheregionasitsownpersonalsphereofinfluence.

Syriasterritorialintegritymustbepreserved,theEgyptianforeignministrysaidinanapparentexpressionofdisapprovalofTurkeysmilitaryoperationsinthecountry.CairosupportseffortstocombatterroristgroupsinSyria,butsucheffortsmustoccurwithinthecontextofpreservingtheunityandintegrityofSyrianterritories,inaccordancewithinternationallegalnormsanddecisions.ThestatementdidnotmentionTurkeybyname.

United States, Turkey

AnkaraformallysignedadealwiththeUnitedStatesovertheuseofTurkeysIncirlikairbaseintheU.S.ledcoalitionscampaignagainsttheIslamicState,theTurkishForeignMinistrysaid.TheagreementcoversonlythefightagainsttheIslamicStateanddoesnotincludeairsupportforalliedKurdishfightersinnorthernSyria,aspokesmanfortheministrysaid.Strategically,TurkeyhasnointerestinanindependentKurdishstateappearingonitsborderwithSyria,whichwouldsetthestageforKurdswithsimilaraspirationsinTurkeyandbeyond.

July 28

Syria

SyrianrebelslaunchedanoffensiveongovernmentheldnorthwesternSyriainabidtoeventuallytakeoverthecoastalmountainsthataretheheartofSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad'spowerbase.AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,theinsurgents,includingJabhatalNusra,tookovergovernmentheldpositionsinJisralShughourandpushedintothenorthernedgeoftheSahlalGhabplain.Meanwhile,SyrianKurdsandtheSyrianarmypushedtheIslamicStatefromalHasaka.

Iraq, Turkey

TurkishfighterjetscontinuedtoattackmilitanttargetsbothinsideTurkeyandacrosstheborderinnorthernIraq.AftertakingofffromanairbaseinTurkeyssoutheasternDiyarbakirprovince,twoF16shitsixtargetsinIraq,anunnamedofficialsaid,Reutersreported.AirstrikesalsohitantiaircraftandmortarpositionsofthemilitantKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)inTurkeyssoutheasternSirnakprovince,neartheIraqiborder.TheTurkishGeneralStaffsaidtheantiPKKactionwastakenfollowinganattackonTurkishgendarmerieforcesin



theregionbysuspectedPKKmilitants.

Turkey, NATO

NATOstandsinstrongsolidaritywithTurkeyagainsttheactsofterrorandinstabilitythecountryisfacingalongitssouthernborderwithSyriaandIraq,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergsaidattheopeningofanemergencymeetingrequestedbyAnkaraofall28memberstates,AFPreported.StoltenbergdidnotcommentspecificallyonTurkey'srecentlylaunchedcampaignofairstrikestargetingIslamicStateandKurdishmilitanttargetsinIraqandSyria.OnJuly26,thesecretarygeneralsaidselfdefensehasto"proportional."Onboththedomesticandthestrategiclevels,Turkey'sinterestshavefinallybroughtAnkaraintothefight.

GeopoliticalDiary:Turkey'sdecisiontotakeamoreactiveroleintheSyrianconflictwillbewelcomedbymany,includingtheUnitedStates.But,forfightersfromtheKurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(orYPG)inthesmallnorthernSyriantownofZurMaghar,theinterventionisdecidedlylesswelcome.CitingKurdishsources,HurriyetnewspaperreportedJuly27thatTurkishtanksfiredonU.S.backedYPGelementsinZurMaghar.TheTurkishForeignMinistrywasquicktodenythereport,insistingthatthetargetsetforTurkishforceswaslimitedtoKurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK)militantsinnorthernIraqandIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.

ThisraisesspeculationthattheattackwaseitheranaccidentresultingfrommisidentificationorthatTurkishforcesexploitedanopportunitytotargetYPGmilitantswithplausibledeniability.AcochairmanofYPG'spoliticalparentgrouptheKurdishDemocraticUnionPartytoldAlHayatnewspaperthattheKurdishmilitiamightbewillingtojoinSyriangovernmentforces,presumablyinresponsetothedevelopingtensionbetweenTurkeyandtheSyrianKurds.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:AnInvigoratedTurkeyLashesOut.

July 27

Turkey, Iraq, Syria, United States

TheTurkishmilitaryattackedKurdishinsurgentcampsforthesecondconsecutivenight.ThestrikesoccurredshortlyaftertheTurkishgovernmentblamedtheKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)foraJuly25attackthatkilledtwoTurkishsoldierswoundedanotherfour,whenacarbombandroadsideexplosiveshitapassingmilitaryvehicleneartheDiyarbakirairbase.Gunmenalsoopenedfireonanearbypolicestationnocasualtieswerereported.TheJuly27airstrikestargetedPKKpositionsnearthenorthernIraqibordertownofHarkuk.TurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutoglusaidthattheoperationshavechangedtheregionalgame,andhecalledforameetingofNATOstatesonJuly28todiscussthecampaigninSyriaandIraq.

TurkeyandtheUnitedStatesagreedtothesharedgoalofestablishingan"IslamicStatefreezone"alongTurkeysborderwithSyria.Theagreementinvolvesaroughly110kilometerlong(68mile)areawestoftheEuphratesRiverandintoSyriasAleppoprovince.ThiszonewouldeventuallycomeundercontroloftheSyrianopposition.Severalissues,suchasthecompositionofmoderateSyrianoppositiongroundforcesthatwouldbeusedtoholdtheprotectedarea,arestillunderdiscussion,sourcessaid.Washingtonisreportedlyadamantthatanyjointeffortswillnotincludeaformalmilitaryenforcednoflyzone,thoughAnkarastillenvisionsaircoverandprotectionfortheoppositionfighters.Ankara'sdecisiontocooperatewiththeUnitedStatesandactivelybattletheIslamicStatewillhaverepercussionsthroughouttheSyrianIraqibattlespace



andwithinTurkeyitself.

Esewhere,SyrianKurdishforcesknownastheYPG,orPeoplesProtectionUnits,saytheirpositionswerehitincrossbordershellingbytheTurkisharmy.TheattackoccurredontheoutskirtsoftheIslamicStateheldtownofJarablus,wheretheYPGhasbeenfightingthejihadistgroup.Inresponse,theTurkishmilitarysaidithasnotbeentargetingSyrianKurdishforcesinnorthernSyriawhosaytheywerehitbycrossbordershellingearlieronJuly27.AmilitaryofficialsaidtheministrywasinvestigatingclaimsthatTurkishelementsengagedpositionsheldbyforcesotherthantheIslamicStateinSyriaorthemilitantKurdistanWorkersPartyinIraq.Earlier,theKurdishPeoplesProtectionUnits,orYPG,whichhasbeenfightingtheIslamicState,saidTurkishtankshititspositionsandthoseofalliedArabrebelsintheAleppoprovincebordertownofZurMagharandanothernearbyvillage.ActivistswiththeSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsalsoreportedtheTurkishfire.Inaprovocativestatement,thecochairmanoftheKurdishgrouptheDemocraticUnionParty,SalihMuslim,saidthatundertherightconditionstheYPGcouldjointheSyrianarmy.AccordingtoMuslim,iftheSyrianarmyabandonedtheBaathiststance,thegroupwouldconsiderjoiningit.

Finally,TheYPGalsocapturedthetownofSarrinfromtheIslamicState.Thesuccesscomesafteramonthlongoffensiveintendedtocutthejihadistgroupssupplylines.IslamicStatefightershadusedthetownasalaunchpadforraidsontheKurdishheldtownofKobanifurthernorth.AirstrikesfromtheU.S.ledcoalitionsupportedtheassault.

July 26

Syria

MoreSyriansneedtojointhearmyforthemilitarytowinthecountry'scivilwaragainstrebelforces,SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadsaidinanaddressJuly26.AlAssad,speakingadayafterheissuedanamnestyfordeserters,saidthatwhilemorepeoplehavebeenjoiningthearmy,thenumberofsoldierswasnotenoughtowinaconflictfoughtonmultiplefronts.Healsosaidthathisappealdoesnotmeanthemilitaryiscollapsing.

July 25

Turkey, Syria, Iraq

TurkishgroundforcesandfighterjetstargetedIslamicStatemilitantpositionsinnorthernSyriaaswellasKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)campsinIraqonJuly25.Inapressconferencethatsameday,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutoglusaidthatTurkey'smoredirectinvolvementwouldcontinueandaslongasthethreattoTurkeyremains.Ankara'ssteppedupinvolvementinIraqandSyriafollowedaJuly20IslamicStatesuicidebombingofaculturalcenterinSurucneartheSyrianborder.Davutogluaddedthatthegoalwastocreatea"safezone"innorthernSyriabyclearingtheareaofIslamicStatemilitants.TurkishpolicealsobeganapushtodetainpeopleacrossthecountrysuspectedofbeingIslamistorKurdishmilitantgroupmembers,arrestingalmost600byJuly25.ThePKKrespondedtotheairstrikesandarrestswithanofficialstatementsayingthatthegroup'strucewithAnkarahad"nomeaninganymore."

July 23



Turkey, United States

AnkaraisexpectedtoallowtheU.S.ledcoalitionfightingtheIslamicStatetostationaircraftataNATObaseinsouthernTurkey,accordingtoaJuly23WhiteHousestatement.U.S.PresidentBarackObamaandhisTurkishcounterpart,PresidentRecepTayyipErdogan,reportedlyfinalizedanagreementonuseoftheIncirlikAirBaseinAdanaduringatelephonecallJuly22.ThetwosidesinitiallyagreedinprincipleonuseofthebaseduringtalksJuly78.TurkeyalsoannouncedJuly23thatitplanstoflyairshipsandbuildatwofencedbordersystemwithamoatalongitsborderwithSyria.OnJuly22,Turkey'sdeputyprimeministersaidthatTurkishauthoritieshadarrestedatleast102IslamicStatesuspectsoverthepastsixmonths.TheUnitedStatesiscoaxingTurkeyintoplayingamoreactiveroleintheconflictinSyria.

GeopoliticalDiary:MultipleleaksinU.S.andTurkishmediaonThursdayclaimedthattheUnitedStatesandTurkeyhavereachedadealforU.S.ledcoalitionforcestouseTurkey'sIncirlikbaseforoperationsagainsttheIslamicStatefollowingaphonecalllateWednesdaybetweenTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganandU.S.PresidentBarackObama.Ourteamhasbeencloselytrackinganumberofeventsoverthepastmonth,includingaTurkishmilitarybuildupattheSyrianborder,anintensificationofantiIslamicStatesecurityoperationsinTurkey,arecentvisittoAnkarabyahighlevelU.S.delegationandtherecentIslamicStatesuicideattackinSurucneartheSyrianborder.ThoughitwascleartousthatsomekindofunderstandingwasdevelopingbetweenWashingtonandAnkarathatwouldinevitablydeepenTurkey'smilitaryfootprint,thescopeanddetailsofthatunderstandingwerefoggyuntilnow.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:HintsandLeaksConvergeonaTurkishAirBase.

Turkey, Syria

ShotsfiredfromtheSyriansideoftheTurkishborderkilledoneTurkishsoldierandwoundedatleastonemoreJuly23.AccordingtoTurkishoutletDoganNewsAgency,theshotscamefromanareacontrolledbytheIslamicState.Sofar,AnkarahasbeenreluctanttosendtroopsintoSyriatoconfrontIslamicStatemilitantsdirectly,insteadcrackingdownontheIslamicStatenetworkwithinTurkey.

Iraq, United States

U.S.DefenseSecretaryAshCartermadeasurprisevisittoBaghdadJuly23toassessthesuccessofthecampaignagainsttheIslamicState.ThisisCarter'sfirsttriptoIraqsincebecomingdefensesecretaryinFebruary.HewillmeetwithU.S.commandersandIraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadi.Meanwhile,IraqiforcesarereportingthatthefirststagesoftheoperationtoliberateAnbarweresuccessful.

IraqiFederalPoliceforcesattackedIslamicStatesitesinalMadyaqandalSadiqah,eastofRamadi,killing25militantsanddestroyingsixvehicles.Thesameday,troopstrainedandequippedbyaU.S.ledcoalitionalsojoinedIraqioperationsforthefirsttimetoretakeAnbarprovince,AlArabiyaNewsreported.TheUnitedStateshasover3,000troopsinthecountrytotrainandadvisetheIraqimilitary.

July 22

Syria



MuhsinalFadhli,allegedlytheleaderofagroupofsenioralQaedamembersknownastheKhorasanGroup,waskilledinaU.S.ledcoalitionairstrikeJuly8,aPentagonspokesmansaidJuly22.AlFadhliwastravelinginavehiclenearthenorthwesternSyriantownofSarmada.TheKuwaitibornjihadistwasreportedlyamemberofOsamabinLadensinnercircleandhadadvanceknowledgeofthe9/11attacks.AirstrikesinSyriawillweaken,butnotdestroymilitantgroups.

Turkey

AnallegedmemberoftheIslamicStatewasshotandkilledlateJuly22inIstanbulbyamemberofamilitantgroupalliedwithanoutlawedKurdishparty.AccordingtoastatementreleasedbythePatrioticRevolutionaryYouthMovement,awingofthebannedKurdistanWorkers'Party(knowncommonlyasthePKK),themanhadcometoIstanbulsevenmonthsagotoreceivetreatmentforwoundssustainedwhilefightingwiththeIslamicStateintheSyriantownofKobani.Thegroupsaidithadbeentrackinghismovementsforthreemonthsandthathewasplanningattacksinthecity.Suchassassinationoperationswouldcontinue,thegroupsaid.Amidfourintersectingcrises,Ankara'sstrategyistobeconsistentlyambiguous.

July 20

Turkey

Atleast27werekilledand100morewoundedJuly20byanexplosionintheTurkishtownofSuruc,neartheSyrianborder.Thetownislocatedaround10kilometers(6.2miles)fromtheSyriantownofKobani,whichhasbeenacenterofconflict.Theblastreportedlytargetedaculturalcenterthathousedatleast300membersofayouthorganizationworkingtorebuildKobani.TheIslamicStateissuspectedtoberesponsiblefortheattackTurkeyhasbeenconsideringplayingamoreactiveroleagainstthegroupinSyria.

Analysis:Thebombingwascarriedoutinthevicinityofaneventattheculturalcenter,againstasofttargetandamonglargecrowds.TheeventdrewmanyvolunteersfromIstanbulwhowereontheirwaytoperformreliefworkintheSyriancityofKobani.TheIslamicState'sextensivereachthroughoutTurkeymeansithasthecapacitytocarryoutsimilarattacksinthefuture.ThisisparticularlytrueintheregionneartheSyrianborder,wheretheIslamicStatehasbuiltupavastnetworkofsafehousesandagentswhofacilitatethetransferofrecruitsandsuppliesintoSyria.

Turkey'sdecisiontocrackdownontheIslamicState'snetworkinthecountryleftthegroupwithtwooptions:First,itcouldrespondbyretaliatingagainstTurkeywithterroristattacksandcrossborderraidslaunchedfromSyria.Second,theIslamicStatecouldchoosenottoretaliatetoavoidabroaderTurkishoffensivethatcouldpotentiallyincludeattacksagainstIslamicStatetargetswithinSyria.Ofthetwocoursesofaction,thesecondwasalwaysratherunlikelygiventheIslamicState'spreviousbehavioranditspropensitytorespondtoanypressurewithforce.Readthefullanalysishere:TheIslamicStateRetaliatesAgainstTurkey.

Syria

KurdishforcesareinnearfullcontrolofalHasakacity,followinganattackbytheIslamicStateinthearealastmonth.ControlofalHasakahadbeensplitbetweengovernmentforcesandKurdishmilitias.IfKurdishmilitias



backedbytheUnitedStatesgainfullcontrolofthecity,itwouldbeamajorblowtoDamascus.TheKurdshaveaccusedDamascusofbeingunabletoprotectthecityfromIslamicmilitants.

July 19

Syria

TheSyrianarmysteppedupairstrikesandretookvillagesinanewoffensiveonIslamistrebelsinthenortheasterncoastalLatakiaprovince,armysourcessaidJuly19.Thearmyalsosaiditbombardedrebelsupplylinesandwrestedbackfivevillagesandhilltops.Islamistrebels,includingJabhatalNusra,controlmanyvillagesintheborderlandsnorthofthegovernmentheldportcityofLatakia.GovernmentforceshaveintensifiedtheircampaignintheprovincesincerebelstookthecriticaltownofJisralShughourinApril.

July 15

Turkey, Iraq

TurkeyplanstohostIraqipolicefortraining,TurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglusaidatanewsconferenceinAnkarawithhisIraqicounterpart.Undertheframeworkagreeduponbetweenthetwocountries,TurkeywillalsocontinuetoequipandtraintheIraqiarmy.TheUnitedStateshasbeencoaxingTurkeyintoplayingamoreactiveroleintheconflictagainsttheIslamicState.

July 14

Iraq

IraqisecurityforcesretookeightareasofAnbarprovincefromforcesloyaltotheIslamicStateonJuly14,unnamedsecuritysourcessaid.IraqiforcesalsoreportedlyfoiledanattackonagovernmentcomplexinBaghdad.Earlier,thecommanderoftheIraqiairforcesaidthatfourF16fighterjetsreceivedbytheIraqigovernmentonJuly13willparticipateinthemilitarysongoingoperationtoretakeAnbarprovincefromtheIslamicState.TheU.S.ledcoalitioncarriedoutatleast29airstrikesnearRamadi,theprovincialcapital,striking67IslamicStatestagingareasanddestroyingseveralvehiclesandpiecesofequipment,U.S.militarysourcessaid.

AnbarprovinceliesimmediatelytothewestofBaghdadandstretchestotheSyrianborder.Tocleartheprovince,IraqisecurityforceswillfirsthavetotakebackanumberofkeydefensivepositionsestablishedbytheIslamicStateinstrategiccitiesandbuiltupareas.ThefirstoftheseisthecityofFallujah,located50kilometers(30miles)westofBaghdad.IraqiforceshavealreadybeguntheencirclementofFallujah,clearingIslamicStatepositionsfromthesurroundingarea.TheplanofattackwilllikelybesimilartotheoperationtoretakeTikrittothenorth:Bycompletelyisolatingthetargetarea,securityforcescancutoffreinforcementandresupplylinesaswellaspreventingIslamicStatefightersfromwithdrawingfromtheurbancoretofallbackpositions.ReportsfromthegroundalreadysuggestthatsomeseniorIslamicStatecommandershavesenttheirfamiliesawayfromFallujahinanticipationofabloodyfight.

WhileBaghdad'sforceslearnedvaluablelessonsfromTikrit,theoperationtoclearFallujahwillbecostlyin



termsofmanpower,materielandtime.Fightinginurbanterrainisvicious,andFallujahisbiggerandmorecomplexthanTikrit.Also,theIslamicStatehashadtimetofortifytheirpositions,andthesametacticsthatboggeddownIraqisecurityforcesontheoutskirtsofTirkitwillapplyevenmoresoinFallujahconcentricringsofimprovisedexplosivedevicesaswellasphysicalbarriersalongallthemainentrypointstocity,coveredbydirectandindirectfirefromfortifiedpositions.IslamicStatefightersarelikelytodefendaggressively,evenwhencutoff.InTikrittheyappliedtheprinciplesofantagonistic,mobiledefenseuntilforcedtoconsolidateintosmallerpockets,whichfurtherincreasedtheirpotencybyconcentratingtheirremainingforces.

EvenwithoverwhelmingforceandassistancefromIranianadvisorsandSunnitribalfighters,Baghdad'sassaultonTikritstalled,requiringU.S.ledcoalitionairsupporttobreakthestalemate.AirpowerwillbeakeycomponentoftheFallujahoffensive,andU.S.aircrafthavealreadybegunerodingIslamicStateforcesindepth.EveniftheassaultofFallujahgoesasplanned,IraqisecurityforceswillhavetocontinuetoclearwestalongtheEuphratesrivervalley,fightingthroughtheAnbarprovincialcapitalofRamadiandbeyond,tacklingtheIslamicStatestrongholdsofHit,HadithaandQaim.

Syria

TheIslamicStatemadegainsagainsttheSyrianarmyinthenortheasterncityofHassakehJuly14,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.FightinginthecityhasbeenongoingsinceJune25,whentheIslamicStateseizedtwoneighborhoods.Inthesubsequentweeks,fightinghaskilledsome170peopleandthemilitantshaveexpandedtheircontroltoHassakeh'ssouthernentrance,astadium,thealZuhurneighborhoodandpartsofGhwayran.

July 13

Iraq

IraqiforceslaunchedanewoffensivetodrivetheIslamicStatefromAnbarprovinceonJuly13.Theoperation,whichisbeginningwithanassaultonFallujah,willinvolveShiitemilitias,Iraqipolice,militaryunits(includingspecialoperationsforces)andSunnitribesmenwhoopposethepresenceofIslamicState.IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiarrivedattheheadquartersofthejointoperationstooverseethecampaign.ThreevillagesinFallujahwerereportedlytakenfromtheIslamicStatebyoneofthemilitias.Overtheweekend,U.S.ledcoalitionforcesconducted16airraidsinSyriaand11moreinIraq.Meanwhile,theIslamicStatetookcreditforaseriesofbombingsinthecapitalonJuly12thatkilledatleast35peopleandinjuredanother70.TheIslamicStateisreallyaninsurgencyratherthanaterroristgroup.Fightingawaronseveralfrontsandgoverningterritory,especiallylargecitiessuchasMosulandRamadi,requiresanincredibleamountofmoney,resourcesandmanpower.

Syria

AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,anairstrikeinnorthwestSyriakilledtwoseniorIslamicStateleadersJuly13.TheObservatory,whichgathersitsinformationfromactivistsinSyria,identifiedtheleadersasanIraqinamedAbuOsamaalIraqiandaSyriannamedAmeralRafdan.ThegroupbelievestheairstrikewasconductedbytheU.S.ledcoalitionfightingtheIslamicStateintheregion.



July 10

Turkey

Turkishpoliceoperationsinthreecitiesdetained21suspectedIslamicStaterecruiters,accordingtostaterunmedia.InIstanbul,thepolicecounterterrorismunitraidtargetedseveraladdresses,includingoneonTemasaStreetinGaziosmanpasadistrict.TheallegedIslamicStatemembersareaccusedofrecruitingforeignfightersfromEurope,akeycomponentofthemilitantgroup'ssuccess.

July 9

Syria

Syrianarmytroopsadvancedtoabout5kilometers(3miles)ofthecentralSyriancityofPalmyra.ThegovernmenttroopsclashedwithIslamicStatemilitantstothewestofthecityand,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,couldsoonenterPalmyraitself.TheSyriangovernmenthasbeenconductingincreasinglyintenseairstrikesonthecity,whichtheIslamicStatecapturedMay21.

Elsewhere,seniorSyrianairforceofficialMaj.Gen.NadeemShallah,theheadoftheDamascusbranchintheSyrianDirectorateforAirForceIntelligence,wasreportedlyfoundshotinhiscarinDamascus.Governmentofficialshavenotyetofficiallyconfirmedthereportofhisdeath.Shallah'sbranchwasthelargestdivisioninintelligenceservicefortheSyrianairforce.HisdeathrepresentsoneofthemosthighprofileassassinationstodateinSyriasincethestartofthecivilwarin2011.

July 8

Syria

HezbollahandSyriangovernmentforcesadvancedfurtherintothenorthwesternpartofZabadani,astrategicallyimportanttownneartheLebaneseborderthathasseenfiercefightingformuchofthepastweek,anunnamedHezbollahsourcesaid.Atleast13SyrianrebelsandtwoHezbollahfighterswerekilled.InresponsetotheassaultonZabadani,rebelsincontrolofthespringthatprovidesmostofDamascusdrinkingwaterhavethreatenedtoshutoffpipelinestothecapitaliftheoffensivecontinues.Meanwhile,SyriantroopsandalliedgunmenrepelledanoffensiveledbyjihadistrebelgroupJabhatalNusraonaneighborhoodinAleppo,activistsandstatemediasaid.Oppositionactivistsclaimedthemilitarycarriedoutachlorinegasattackinanotherpartofthecity.

Turkey, United States

TurkishandU.S.officialscontinuedtalksonantiIslamicStatecooperationonJuly8,thoughneithersidereleasedastatement.ThetwosidesmetformorethaneighthoursonJuly7.TheU.S.delegationalsometwithTurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluandForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglu.ThetalksareoneofthestrongestsignalsyetthatAnkaramaybereadytotakeonalargerregionalroleandcooperatemorecloselywiththeUnitedStatesonopposingmilitantthreatssuchastheIslamicState.



ReadStratfor'stakeonhow

Jordan

JordanhasbegundeployingmilitaryreinforcementstoitsnorthernborderwithSyriaandtheeasternborderwithIraq.ThenewscomesasU.S.CongressvotedJuly7toallowWashingtontohandlearmstransferstoJordanlikeitdoeswithNATOcountriesaswellastoincreasefinancialassistanceandmilitarycooperationwithJordantodealwiththethreatposedbytheIslamicState.

July 7

Syria, Turkey, United States

AhighlevelU.S.officialarrivedinAnkarafortalksaboutthefightagainsttheIslamicStateonJuly7.ThemeetingcomesafterTurkeyreinforceditsborderagainstthemilitantgroupandU.S.PresidentBarackObamavowedinanaddresstostepupthefightagainstthegroup.ThetalksareexpectedtofocusontheuseofTurkishmilitarybasestolaunchU.S.airstrikesintoSyria.

GeopoliticalDiary:Turkey'sfutureplansforSyriabecameclearerTuesday,followingweeksofspeculationoverAnkara'sinvolvementinthecivilwarwagingalongitssouthernborder.OnTuesday,theUnitedStatesandTurkeybegantalksinvolvingspecialU.S.presidentialrepresentativeGen.JohnAllenandahostofU.S.andTurkishmilitaryandintelligenceofficials.ThetwocountrieshavestruggledtoforgeacommonstrategyinresponsetotheSyrianconflictandaburgeoningjihadistpresenceperhapsbestexemplifiedbytheIslamicState.TheUnitedStateshaslongwantedTurkeyaNATOmemberandarguablythemostcapablemilitarypowerintheregiontostepupitsroleagainstmilitants,muchtoAnkara'sconsternation.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:TurkeyConsidersaLargerRoleinSyria.

July 6

Syria, Turkey

MultipleoffensivescontinuethroughoutthefractiousSyriantheater.RebelgroupsareheavilycommittedinAleppo,DaraaandaroundDamascusitself,whiletheIslamicStateremainshighlyactiveintheprovincesofalHasakaandRaqaa.IslamicStatefightersarereportedtohaveseizedthetownofAinIssaandsurroundingareasnorthofRaqaacityfromKurdishdefenderssupportedbyU.S.ledairstrikes.Elsewhere,theSyrianarmy,assistedbyHezbollahfighters,movedagainstrebelfactionsinZabadani,thelastrebelheldtownintheQalamounregionneartheLebaneseborder.Thecity,whichonceservedasalogisticalhubforHezbollah,isacriticalnodeinthelandsupplyroutesbetweenLebanonandSyriaaswellaskeyterrainforrebelsupplylines.

Yet,themostsignificantdevelopmentsoverthepastweekfromageopoliticalperspectivehavetakenplacenorthoftheborder.AnumberofleakedreportshintingatapossibleTurkishmilitaryincursionintoSyriahaveignitedintensedebateandconjectureinpoliticalaswellasmediacircles.

Addingfueltothespeculation,overthelastfivedaysAnkarahastakenmeasurestoensurethatTurkeyispreparedforanynumberofpossible



TurkeywouldinvadeSyria.optionswhenitcomestotakingaction.ReportsindicatethatTurkeyhasforwarddeployedelementsofthreecommandobrigades,anarmoredbrigadeandamechanizedbrigadetotheAzazJarabulusborderarea.Inaddition,theTurkishSecondArmymaintainssizableforcesincloseproximitytothebordertroopnumbersthatcouldgreatlyenhanceandreinforceanyinitiallycommittedgroundforce.

Asanticipated,Ankara'ssecurityforceshavesignificantlyrampeduppolicingeffortsalongtheporousborder.Additionally,domesticintelligenceandsecurityelementsareactivelytargetingvariousIslamicStatecellsknowntoexistwithinTurkey.BreakingdowntheseoperationalcellsiscrucialtopreventretaliatoryterroristattacksbytheIslamicStatemadeduringtheanticipatedbacklashagainstpossibleTurkishactioninSyria.

Withallthesecapabilitiesandmeasuresinplace,theTurkishmilitaryisnowinapositiontoexecutenumerousmissionsandtasks,rangingfrom(butnotlimitedto):lockingdowntheborder,engagingIslamicStatepositionsinsideSyriawithartilleryandairstrikes,stagingraidsacrosstheborder,ortheestablishmentofabufferzone30kilometers(19miles)deepand100kilometerswide.

However,interventioninSyriaisstillfarfromassured.TherulingJusticeandDevelopmentPartyandthemilitaryremaininheavydiscussionsoverthebestdirectiontotake.AsStratforpreviouslyhighlighted,theconstraintsandrisksofaTurkishinterventioninSyriahavenotdiminishedorabated,whichcomplicatesthedecisiontocommittoanaggressivecourseofaction.

AlsoonJuly6,U.S.PresidentBarackObamamadealivetelevisedspeechfollowingameetingatthePentagonwithmilitaryleadersandadvisorstodiscussprogressagainsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria.Thepresidentlargelyreiteratedcorepointsoftheadministration'sstrategy.HenotedthattheIslamicStateisatastrategicdisadvantagebecauseofitsregionalisolation.HealsoemphasizedU.S.effortstotakeoutenergyinfrastructure,targetfinancialflowsaswellastoprovidesupporttotheIraqigovernmentandmoderateSyrianoppositionfighters.ThepresidenturgedCongresstoconfirmtheappointmentofAdamSzubinasundersecretaryoftheTreasuryDepartment.ThespeechalsohighlightedthecontinuedthreatoflonewolfattackswithintheUnitedStatesandworldwide.

July 1

Syria

Nearly7,000KurdishpeshmergafighterscouldbesenttothecityofalHasakainnorthernSyriatofightagainsttheIslamicState,OmarOusi,aseniorIraqiKurdishlawmaker,saidJuly1.TheplanwillbeputtotheIraqiKurdistanparliament,andimplementationwoulddependoncoordinationwiththeSyriangovernmentandtheKurdishPeoplesProtectionUnits.

June 30

Syria, Turkey

Analysis:NumerousbutunverifiedreportsintheTurkishmediasaytheTurkishmilitarywillsooninterveneinSyria.Notably,highlevelofficialsincludingTurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusogluhavenotdeniedtheclaims,andTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganhastaken



toTwittertoemphasizethattheTurkswillnotallowterrororganizationstotakeadvantageofthechaoticenvironmentalongTurkey'sborders.However,theoperationdiscussedinthemedia,especiallythepossibilityofagroundincursion,isunlikely.Still,itisworthhighlightingtherisksthatwillconstrainTurkeyintheoffchanceitdecidestopursuesuchacourseofaction.Readythefullanalysis:HowTurkeyWouldInvadeSyria.

June 25

Syria

TheIslamicStatelaunchedtwoattacksinnorthernSyriaonJune25.ThefirstwasaraidonthebordertownofKobani,presentlyheldbyelementsoftheKurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG).KobaniwasthefocusofamajorIslamicStateoperationinOctober2014,whichgarneredmajormediaattentiondespiteitslackofstrategicimportance.ThesecondattackwasdirectedagainstthepartsofalHasakacitystilloccupiedbyforcesloyaltoSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.ThemainstreammediahaslargelyfocusedontheKobaniattack,butthealHasakaoperationinthenortheastismoreimportantbyfar.

ThestrikeonKobaniwasessentiallyasuicideraiddesignedtoachievemaximumshockandpropagandavalue.AroundtwodozenIslamicStatefightersinfiltratedthetownbydressinginYPGandFreeSyrianArmyuniforms.Onceinside,theyspreadoutandbegantheirattack,usingtheensuingchaostocreateasmanycasualtiesaspossible.Atleasttwosmallvehicleborneexplosivedeviceswereusedtoinitiatetheassault.TheaimoftheattackwastohighlightthereachoftheIslamicState,withKobanibeingselectedbecauseofits



highpropagandavalue.TheraidalsoservestotiedownYPGunitsintherear,divertingmanpowerfromthefrontlinestoguardagainstsuchattacksinthefuture.TheprospectofhavingtosecuremajorurbanareasandsettingupcheckpointsalongtransitroutesisamajordifficultyfortheYPG,whichisalreadylowonavailablemanpower.

Incomparison,thealHasakaassaultisfarlargerinscaleandmoreambitious.AftertheIslamicStatesucceededinassassinatingthechiefcommanderofloyalistforcesinalHasakacityonJune24,themilitantsfollowedupwithapremeditatedattackinvolvinghundredsoffighters.Theyswiftlypenetratedthetown'sdefensesandseizedtwoneighborhoodsintheprocess.TheloyalistforcesinalHasakaarenowbeingheavilyengagedastheyattempttorepeltheattack.ItisnotyetclearwhethertheYPGwillinterveneontheloyalistsidewhenitcomestodrivingtheIslamicStateback,orwhethertheywillholdtheirforcesinanticipationoftheopportunitytoseizeloyalistheldterritoryforthemselvesaftertheIslamicStateupsetsDamascus'forcesinalHasaka.

June 22

Syria

WiththehelpoftheKurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG),FreeSyrianArmyforcescontinuetoadvancetowardRaqaa,theIslamicState'sdefactocapital.OnJune22,theFreeSyrianArmyannounceditscaptureofthe93rdBrigadebasenearAinIssa,only55kilometers(about34miles)northofRaqaa.TheIslamicStatehasbeenreinforcingitspositionsinRaqaaandAleppoprovinceswithfightersfromotherfrontsinanattempttocounterrebeloffensivesinthearea,weakeningthegroup'sholdelsewhereinSyriaandallowingloyalistforcestomakegainsaroundthecitiesofPalmyraandDeirelZour.

June 17

Syria

TheSouthernFrontrebelalliancepublicallyrefusedtoincludeJabhatalNusraaspartofitslatestoffensiveinQuneitragovernorate.TherebelgroupsaidthatitdoesnotshareJabhatalNusra'svisionforthefutureofSyria.TheideologicalrifthighlightsnotonlytherelativestrengthofFreeSyrianArmyunitsinthesouth,butthegrowinglinksthattheSouthernFrontnurtureswithoutsidebenefactors,areadysourceofbattlewinningmaterielandfinance.TheSouthernFront,however,isunlikelytobepressuredintodirectlyfightingJabhatalNusra:TodosowoulddistractfromthefightagainstDamascus.Inaddition,anyopenhostilitiescouldresultinrevengeattacksagainstotherFreeSyrianArmyaffiliatedunitsinnorthernSyria,whereJabhatalNusraismorepowerful.

InQuneitra,theSouthernFrontcontinuestoadvanceonkeylocations,includingtheprovincialcapitalofNewQuneitra(BaathCity).Thoughnotformallyintegratedintotheoffensive,JabhatalNusraestablisheditsownoperationsroomandhasparticipatedinthefightingmostlyaroundHadar,tothenorththoughithasbeenisolatedfromtheSouthernFront.SouthernFrontandJabhatalNusrahaveworkedtogetherinthepast,butthatrelationshiphassoured.JabhatalNusraexperiencedanumberofsetbacksinthesouthinrecentmonths,includingmajordefectionstootherbelligerentsintheregionthathavesappeditsavailablemanpower.



June 16

Syria

KurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG)continuetomakesignificantgainsinnorthernSyria.TheynowoccupytheTurkishbordertownofTalAbyadafterIslamicStatemilitantswithdrew.ManyTalAbyadresidentsfledtoTurkey,fearingairstrikesorthereturnofIslamicStatefighters.TalAbyadisthenearestbordertowntotheIslamicStatestrongholdofRaqaa.Tothenortheast,theYPGarebattlingSyrianloyalistforcesinQamishli,witheachsideaccusingtheotherofprovocation.

Elsewhere,SouthernFrontrebelslaunchedanewoffensivetoclearoutforcesloyaltoSyrianPresidentBasharalAssadfromtheirremainingpositionsinQuneitraprovince,locatedatthesouthwestedgeofSyria.JaishalFateh'soffensiveacrossthenorthernalGhabplaininHamaisencounteringtoughresistance,reportedlybecauseloyalistforcesintheareaarereceivingreinforcementsfromexternalalliesofDamascus.

June 15

Syria

KurdishPeople'sProtectionUnit(YPG)fightersencircledtheIslamicStateheldtownofTalAbyadandseizedcontrolofthemainroadconnectingTalAbyadandRaqaa,theYPGmilitiasaidJune15.TalAbyadisthenearestbordertowntoRaqaa,anIslamicStatestronghold,andtheroadconnectingthetwocitiesisan



importantsupplyroutethattheIslamicStateusestobringinforeignfighters.

Iraq

HundredsofpeopledisplacedfromTikritaftertheIslamicStateseizedthecityhavereturned,threemonthsafterprogovernmentforcesrecapturedit.ThecityhaslargelybeendesertedsinceShiitemilitiamenandU.S.ledairstrikespushedthemilitantsfromthecityinApril.Accordingtoanunnamedofficial,thegovernmentcharteredbusestotransportmorethan300familiesfromtentcitiesbacktoTikrit.

June 14

Syria

SyrianKurdishfightersareoutsideofTalAbyad,atownheldbytheIslamicStateontheTurkishborder,KurdishofficialssaidJune14.AKurdishspokesmanalsosaidthatIslamicStatefightershavefledfromSuluk,southwestofTalAbyad,andthatKurdishforcesnowholdthetown.TheadvanceonTalAbyadcouldallowKurdstocutoffavitalroutethatthemilitantgroupusestobringinnewforeignfighters.

June 13

Syria

KurdishPeoplesProtectionUnit(YPG)fightersbegantoadvancethroughSyriatowardtheIslamicStateheldtownofTalAbyadontheTurkishborder.KurdishYPGunitsearlierblockadedthenearbytownofSulukalsoheldbyIslamicState.TalAbyadisthenearestbordertowntotheIslamicStatestrongholdofRaqaa.



June 12

Syria

TheSyrianarmydroverebelsfrompartsofanairbaseinSweidathattheinsurgentshadrecentlyseized.AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,therebelsbegantoretreatfrompartsofalThalaairbaseonJune10.

MembersofSyria'sDruzereligiousminorityaidedSyriangovernmentforcesinrecapturingthealThalaairbaseinthesouthfromtheFreeSyrianArmy.TheDruzehavetriedtoavoidcommittingtoeithersideintheconflict.ThishasbecomemorechallengingsincetheFreeSyrianArmy'sSouthernFrontlaunchedanoffensiveintheDruzedominatedprovinceofSwiedaandpartiallycapturedtheairbaseJune11.SomemembersoftheDruzecommunitymobilizedagainstantigovernmentforcesaftertheIslamistrebelgroupJabhatalNusrakilled20DruzevillagersinnorthwesternSyriaonJune10.JabhatalNusraconsiderstheDruzebranchofIslamtobeheretical.

GeopoliticalDiary:WithinthefirstyearoftheSyrianrebellion,anumberofintelligenceagenciesandmediaoutletssaidthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharalAssadhadonlymonthstolive.Stratforsawitdifferently.Thebattlewasproceedingatarapidpace,andthingsdefinitelylookeddiceyforthegovernmentattimes,butweknewthiswouldbeaprotractedfight.Foronething,theAlawites,whileanaturallyfractiouslot,werefacinganexistentialcrisisagainstaSunnimajorityandwerenotgoingtocrumbleeasily.Foranother,thedivisionswithintherebel



landscape(andamongtherebels'foreignsponsors)weresogreatthatbothsideslackedthemeanstooverwhelmanddefeattheother.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiary:ConsideringaPostAlAssadSyria.

June 11

Iraq

TheIslamicStateexecutedsome130retiredIraqisoldiersandformersecurityofficersinMosulduringaweeklongpurgeofthosesuspectedofspyingonthegroup.InApril,thegroupkilledhundredsmoreformermilitaryandpoliceofficers,whohadservedunderIraqileaderSaddamHussein.Meanwhile,Iraq'shumanrightsministerupdatedthebodycountofthoseexhumedfromsitesinnorthernIraqtonearly600.Somereportssuggesttherecouldbeasmanyas1,700bodiesexhumedfromtheareawherepeopleweredumpedafterbeingmassacredbytheIslamicStateatCampSpeicher,nearTikrit.

Syria

AnAmericanthatjoinedKurdishforcestofighttheIslamicStatewaskilledinabattleinSyria,theU.S.StateDepartmentconfirmedJune11.Theman,KeithBroomfield,isbelievedtobethefirstU.S.citizentodiealongsideKurdishtroopswhilefightingthemilitants.HewaskilledinQentere,nearthebordertownofKobani,afterjoiningthePeople'sProtectionUnitsinFebruaryunderthenameGelhatRaman.KurdishfighterssaytheywillhandoverBroomfield'sbodytohisfamilyinTurkey.

June 10

Iraq

U.S.PresidentBarackObamaauthorizedthedeploymentof450additionalmilitaryspecialiststoIraqtotrainforcesinAnbarprovince.Therearecurrently3,000troopsstationedinIraqtotraintheIraqimilitary.TheUnitedStatesisalsoleadingairstrikesagainstIslamicStatemilitantsinIraqandSyria.Accordingtoreports,thetroopswouldbebasedinAlHabbaniyah.

Syria

TheFreeSyrianArmy'sSouthernFronthasfinallylaunchedalonganticipatedoffensiveinsouthernSyriafollowingmonthsofpreparation.Therebelforcesswiftlyoverrantheloyalist52ndMechanizedBrigadeonJune9andarenowheadedforalTh'alahairbaseinSweidaprovince.ThesuccessofthisoffensivehighlightsthedeterioratingpositionofPresidentBasharalAssad'sforces.ItalsobringsSyria'sminorityDruzepopulationclosertothecenteroftheconflict.

Analysis:ThegovernmentinDamascuswasbroadlyawareofanimpendingassaultontheirsouthernpositionsandhadbeenpreparingdefensesformonths.Thefactthatthe52ndMechanizedBrigadecollapsedquicklydespiteadvancedplanningindicatesthedegreetowhichtheSyrianmilitaryhasbeenweakened.Therebelsseizedconsiderableequipmentandweaponryfromthebase,includingatleastsevenBMP1infantryfightingvehiclesandseveralT



ReadthefoundationalGeopoliticalWeekly:aNetAssessmentoftheMiddle

72tanks,aswellasweaponsandmunitions.ThisnewmaterielwillenablecontinuedrebelattacksagainstthealAssadgovernment.LoyalistforceswillfindthemselvesinanincreasinglydifficultpositionastheyseektodefendagainstmultiplerebeloffensivesinthenorthandsouthinadditiontoIslamicStateattacksfromtheeast,acrossthedesert.Readthefullanalysis:InSouthernSyria,aRebelOffensiveBegins.

June 9

Iraq

InMay,theIraqigovernmentsentaround500billiondinars($430million)tofundtheJunebudgetoftheKurdishautonomousregion,approximatelyhalfthenormalmonthlypayment,IraqiFinanceMinisterHoshyarZebarisaid.InDecember,BaghdadandArbilreachedadealoncontentiousoilexportsunderwhichtheKurdswouldsupply550,000barrelsperdayinexchangeforareturntobudgetpaymentsthatBaghdadcutin2014.BaghdadhasaccusedArbiloffailingtosupplytheagreeduponamountofoil,whileArbilsaysBaghdadhasnotpaidthe1.2trilliondinarspermonthpromised.

Elsewhere,threeIslamicStatemilitantsdressedinmilitaryuniformskilledatleasteightpeopleandwoundedanother17inanattackonagovernmentofficeinAmiriyatalFallujahinwesternIraq.Oneoftheattackersblewhimselfupandtheremainingtwoarestillatlarge.Amiriyat



East,byStratfor'sGeorgeFriedman.

alFallujahislocatedonthewesternfringeofBaghdadandisoneofthefewareasinAnbarprovincestillundergovernmentcontrol.

June 8

Iraq

U.S.PresidentBarackObamasaidattheG7summitinGermanythathewasconfidentthattheIslamicStatewouldbedrivenoutofIraqanddefeated,buttherewouldbesetbacksalongtheway.ObamawentontosaythatIslamicStatesuccessinRamadiwouldbeshortlivedandthattheUnitedStateswouldincreaseitstrainingandassistancerole.Atthesamesummit,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadicalledontheinternationalcommunitytohelpcurtailIslamicStaterevenuefromoilsmuggling.

June 7

Iraq

IraqiforcesrecapturedBeijicityfromIslamicStatefighters,aspokesmanfortheIraqiDefenseMinistrysaid.ThespokesmanalsosaidIraqiforcesclearedthecity'scenter,governmentcomplex,mainmosqueandsurroundingneighborhoods.ThespokesmancreditedtheUnitedStateswithsupportingIraqigroundforcesintheassaultaswell,butdidnotprovidespecificsonwhatkindofU.S.supporttheyreceived.IslamicStateforcesfledbacktowardMosulandwereunderairattackwhileretreating.

Syria

SyrianloyalistforcesrepulsedamajorIslamicStateoffensiveinthenortheasterncityofalHasaka,theSyrianarmysaidJune7.Armyofficialsalsosaidgovernmenttroopshadretakenanelectricitystation,ajuvenileprisonandtwovillagesheldbytheIslamicStateonthesouthernedgeofthecity.NortheasternSyria,whichlinksareascontrolledbyIslamicStateinSyriaandIraq,isofstrategicimportancetothemilitantgroupasitsadvancescontinuetoshapetheSyriancivilwar.

June 5

Iraq

AccordingtoIraniannewsagencyPressTV,aU.S.droneonitswaytoAnbarprovincecrashedinsouthernIraq.AnIraqisecurityofficialconfirmedthereportsthatsaidtheunmannedaerialvehiclecrashedbecauseofatechnicalfailure.

Syria

IslamicStatesuicidebombersdetonatedexplosiveladentrucksatarmycheckpointsaroundalHasakamorethanadozentimesoverthepastfivedays,thecity'sgovernorsaidJune4.Syrianforceshavemaintainedcontrolofthecity,thoughIslamicStatemilitantshavemovedwithin0.5kilometers(0.3miles)ofalHasaka'ssouthernentrance,accordingtoarepresentativefromtheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.



Analysis:AsurveyoftheSyrianbattlefieldquicklyrevealsthattheSyriangovernmentisunderenormousstress.LoyalistforcesareclingingtotheAlawiteconcentratedcoastalregionandthecoreofDamascusastheapproachestobothstrongholdsarelookingmoreprecarious.Inthenorth,therebelshaveallbuttakenIdlibprovinceandareincreasinglythreateningthegovernment'sholdonAleppo.Inthecriticalcentralcorridor,therebelslooksettoadvanceonthegovernmentheldHamafromthenorthwhilethelongisolatedrebelpocketnorthofHomshasbecomeincreasinglyactive.Furthermore,therebelsinDaraaandQuneitracontinuetopushupfromthesouthtowardDamascus.Meanwhile,theIslamicStateisstagingpowerfulattacksagainstgovernmentforcestotheeastoftheHomsHamacorridorafterhavingconsolidateditsgainsintheeasterndesert.Readthefullanalysis:OutsidePowersWeighTheirOptionsinSyria.

June 3

Iraq

TheMinistryofNaturalResourcesinIraq'sKurdishregiondeniedreportsthatitceasedoilshipmentstothenationalgovernment'sStateOilMarketingOrganizationJune3.Earlierintheday,ReutersreportedthatArbilwasnolongertransferringcrudetothestateownedcompany.TheKurdishregionalgovernmentconfirmedthatitwasabidingbyitspreviousenergyagreementwithBaghdad,whichdictatesthatitexportanaverage550,000barrelsperdaythroughBaghdad.Thesemiautonomousregionhasmademovestowardenergyindependenceinthepast,butthesharedoppositiontotheIslamicStatehasbroughtKurdsintoclosercooperationwiththeIraqigovernment.

June 2

Iraq

AtameetingofMiddleEasternandWesternPowersinParisonJune2,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiwilloutlineaplantorecapturethecityofRamadifromIslamicStatemilitants.TwentyministersfromIraq'scoalitionpartners,includingfromtheUnitedStates,Britain,France,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates,aremeetingtodiscussstrategiesforcounteringtheIslamicState.AlAbadihassaidIraq'salliesneedtoprovidemoresupportinthefightagainstmilitants,inparticulartopreventforeignfightersfromtravelingtoIraqtojointheIslamicState.AtthemeetinginParis,hewillpresentaplantoretakeRamadi,whichwillincludemobilizingmoreSunnitribalelementsinAnbarprovincewhileensuringthatShiitemilitiasanswerprimarilytoBaghdadandnottoTehran.ThoughtheIraqigovernmenthasreliedonShiitemilitiastocounterIslamicStatemilitants,theUnitedStateshasexpressedconcernthatthestrategycouldexacerbatesectariantensionsintheheavilySunniAnbarprovince.

Syria

Analysis:Inadisplayofconsiderableflexibilityonthebattlefield,theIslamicStatemanagedtotakerebelforcesinnorthernAleppobysurprisewithalargescaleoffensiveaimedatsecuringmoreterritoryalongtheSyriaTurkeyborder.Afterdrawingdownitsforcesinthearea,theIslamicState'ssuddentacticalshiftresultedinconsiderableinitialgainsagainsttherebels.



IslamicStatefightersseizedSawranandareadvancingnearMare.ButthankstoreinforcementsfromAleppocityandotherprovinces,SyrianrebelforceshavealreadybeguntomountpowerfulcounterattacksagainsttheIslamicState.Fornow,theoutcomeofthebattlehangsinthebalanceasbothsidesmovetobolstertheirranks.Readthefullanalysis:HowIslamicStateVictoriesShapetheSyrianCivilWar.

June 1

Iraq

IslamicStatemilitantsattackedKurdishforcesonMay31inthetownofBashiqa,nearMosul,accordingtoapeshmergacommander.Thepeshmergaforcesreportedlyrepelledtheoffensiveafteranhourandahalfoffighting.NoKurdishfighterswerekilled,anditisunclearwhetheranyIslamicStatemilitantsdiedinthefighting.

May 28-29

Iraq

TheIslamicStateclaimedcreditMay29forthebombingsoftwofivestarhotelsinBaghdadonMay28.



WritinginGlobalAffairs,StratforcontributorIanMorrisconsiderswhyIranianpowerisnotinevitable.

Accordingtoastatement,asuicidebomberparkedacarcarryingexplosivesoutsidetheIshtarHotel,thendroveanothercartotheBabylonHotel,detonatingtheexplosivesaroundthesametimetheothercarexploded.Atleast15werekilledand42woundedintheattacks,whichcomeafterIraqigovernmentforceslostcontrolofRamadi,amajorcity130kilometers(81miles)westofBaghdad,toIslamicStatemilitantsinMarch.

Elsewhere,theremainsof470peoplebelievedtohavebeenexecutedbymilitantsnearTikritin2014havebeenexhumed,theIraqihealthministersaidMay28.TheIslamicStateisbelievedtohavekilledthevictimslastyearinwhatisknownastheSpeichermassacre.

Syria

SyrianrebelsopposedtothegovernmentofPresidentBasharalAssadcapturedthetownofArihainnorthwesternIdlibprovincethenightofMay28andfournearbyvillagesthefollowingday.Theadvancescomeafterthesamemilitantgroups,whichincludealQaedaaffiliateJabhatalNusraandanotherIslamistgroup,AhraralSham,capturedtheprovincialcapitalfromSyriangovernmentforcesinMarch.AsrebelshavecapturedmoreterritoryinIdlib,theSyriangovernmenthaswithdrawntroopsfromtheprovincetofocusondefendingLatakiaprovinceaswellasthecitiesofHomsandDamascus.TheSyrianarmyhasbeenstretchedthininitsfightagainstthevariousrebelfactionsandIslamicStatemilitantsmakinggainsincentralSyria.

May 26

Iraq

IraqannouncedthebeginningofamilitaryoperationMay26toretakeAnbarprovincefromIslamicStatemilitants.TheIslamicStateseizedtheprovincialcapital,Ramadi,lastweeknow,progovernmentforcesarereportedlymassingwestofRamadiinpreparationforanoffensivetowinbackthecity.Accordingtoreports,troopshavecuttheIslamicStatesupplylinessouthofthecapital.Meanwhile,anestimated13militantswerekilledwhengovernmentforcesbombardedtheirpositionineasternRamadi.

AlsoonMay26,IslamicStatesuicidebombersattackedIraqiforcesoutsideFallujahandinthenearbytownofKarmah,killingatleast47troops.Usingasandstormascover,militantssentthreesuicidecarbombsintotheIraqiarmy's1stDivisionheadquarters,fivekilometers(3miles)eastofFallujah,killing17soldiers.InKarmah,16kilometerstothenortheast,fourmorecarbombskilledmorethan30membersofIraqisecurityforces.ThoughIslamicStatemilitantscontrolFallujah,IraqiforceswereabletomaintaincontroloverKarmahinclashesfollowingthebombings.ThesuicideattackscomeasIraqiforcesarebeginninganoffensivetorecaptureAnbarprovincefrommilitants,whocapturedAnbar'sregionalcapital,Ramadi,twoweeksago.

Syria

TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogansaidMay26thatTurkey,SaudiArabiaandQatarhadagreedonthenecessitytoenforceanoflyzoneinSyriadespitealackofcommitmentfromtheUnitedStates.AlthoughtheUnitedStatesandTurkeyrecentlybeganajointoperationtotrainandequipSyrianoppositionfighters,ErdogansaidthatRepublicansandDemocratsintheU.S.Congresswereunabletoagreeonthe



implementationofasafezoneandnoflyzoneinnorthernSyria.Erdoganwentontosaythat,asafellowNATOally,theUnitedStateshadanobligationtoassistTurkeyinSyria.TurkeyandSaudiArabiaannouncedanallianceMay7toprovidelogisticalandfinancialsupporttoSyrianoppositionfighters.

May 24

Syria

IslamicStatefightersexecutedatleast400peopleinPalmyrasincecapturingtheSyriancityonMay20,SyrianstatemediasaidMay24.Theaccountwasnotimmediatelyverifiable,thoughtheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightssaidthatsomepeoplewerebeheadedbuthasnotgivenanestimateforthedeathtollamongcivilians.ThecaptureofPalmyra,alongwiththerecentcaptureofRamadiinwesternIraq,showsthattheIslamicStatestillposesathreattoDamascusandBaghdad.

May 22

Iraq

TheIraqigovernmentanditsallieswilllaunchamissiontoretakethecityofRamadifromIslamicStatemilitants,aPopularMobilizationForcerepresentativesaidMay22.ThePopularMobilizationForce,agroupingofprimarilyShiitemilitias,iscurrentlyfocusedonobtainingmoremodernweaponryandsaysthatitsforceswillthenattempttostoptheIslamicStateadvance.

May 21

Iraq

GovernmentforcesandalliedmilitiasrecapturedthewesternpartofBeiji,Salahuddinprovince,fromIslamicStatemilitantsandfreed300soldierswhohadbeentrappedintheBeijirefinery,thesecretarygeneraloftheShiiteLeagueoftheRighteousmilitiasaid.

IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiandRussianPrimeMinisterDmitriMedvedevagreedontheneedtoexpandmilitary,economicanddiplomaticcooperationbetweenRussiaandIraq.Inparticular,alAbadiemphasizedadesireforRussiaandIraqtosharemilitarytechnology,cooperatetocombatterrorismandworktogetherintheoilandnaturalgassector.AlAbadiisattendingaseriesoftalksinMoscowandwillmeetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinlaterintheday.

Syria

TheIslamicStatecontrolsmorethanhalfofSyria'sterritorynowthatithasseizedPalmyra,anactivistgroupsaid.ThecaptureofthecityMay20wasthefirsttimethemilitantgroupwasabletoseizesuchadenselypopulatedareafromSyrianprogovernmentforces.MostoftheareatheIslamicStatecontrolsinSyriaissparselypopulated.TheinternationalcommunityhasbeenparticularlyconcernedaboutthefallofPalmyrabecauseoftheancientruinslocatedthere.AccordingtoBBC,militantshaveenteredtheancientpartofthecity,whichisdesignatedaUNESCOworldheritagesite,butnodamagehasbeenreportedyet.



AshellexplodedataSyrianarmycheckpointneartheRussianEmbassyinDamascus,leavinganunknownnumberofSyriantroopsdeadorwounded,anembassyspokeswomansaid.Noembassyworkerswereinjured.TheRussianEmbassywaslasttargetedbymortarsMay19.

Cross-Border

IslamicStatemilitantsseizedalTanf,thelastIraqSyriabordercrossingheldbyforcesloyaltoPresidentBasharalAssad.TheIslamicStatenowcontrolstheentireborderexceptforasmallnorthernsectionheldbyKurdishmilitias.ThealTanfseizurefollowstheMay20IslamicStatecaptureofPalmyra,Syria.Despiterecentgains,theIslamicStatewillstruggletomaintainitsoffensiveontwofrontssimultaneously.

May 20

Iraq

IraqiforceshavefoughtbackanovernightattackbyIslamicStatefighterseastofmilitantcontrolledRamadi.ThemilitantsattackedgovernmenttroopsinHusaibaalSharquiya,locatedbetweenRamadiandtheAlHabbaniyahmilitarybase,whereShiitemilitiashavegathered.TheIslamicStateistryingtoconsolidateitscontroloverAnbarprovince.

Syria

IslamicStatemilitantstookoverthenorthernsectionofPalmyraonafteraweeklongpushtowardthecentralSyriancity.JihadistsseizedastatesecuritybuildingbeforespreadingthroughnorthernneighborhoodsthattheyhadpreviouslyovertakenMay16andhadheldforlessthan24hours.IfIslamicStatefightersmaketheirwaytothesouthwesternpartofthecity,localsworrytheywilldestroyPalmyra'sancientruins,whicharedesignatedasaUNESCOworldheritagesite.Despiterecentgains,however,theIslamicStatehasbeenstretchedthinbyitsattemptstoadvanceinbothSyriaandIraq.

Analysis:Inthepastweek,theIslamicStateseizedtheancientcityofPalmyrafromSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad'sforces.Thecity'scaptureaddstothemanydefeatsDamascushassufferedoverthepastsixmonths,compoundingitsproblemsasitfacesthreatsonmultiplefronts.

TheIslamicState'svictoryinPalmyraisnotablefortworeasons.First,ithascompletelyisolatedloyalistforcesinDeirelZourprovince,includingthe137thMechanizedBrigadeandtheelite104thRepublicanBrigade.Thoughtheseunitscouldstillreceivesuppliesbyair,theSyrianairforceisheavilycommittedtootherareasoftheconflict.Itwouldbenearlyimpossibleforthegovernmenttoadequatelysustaintheencircledforcesoverthelongterm.Second,Palmyra'slocationacriticalcrossroadsinthecenterofSyriagivestheIslamicStateastrategicbasefromwhichitcanlaunchattacksonkeylocationsinthesurroundingarea.BecauseloyalistforcesholdnearlyalloftheimportanttargetsinPalmyra'svicinity,theIslamicState'snewadvantagedoesnotbodewellforalAssad'soverstretchedforces.Readthefullanalysis:TheCaptureofPalmyra:ABigWinfortheIslamicState.



May 19

Syria

TwomortarroundslandedonthepremisesoftheRussianEmbassyinDamascusonMay19,causingdamagebutnoinjuries,anembassyspokeswomansaid.Onemortarfellnearthemainentrance,andtheotherhitanadministrativebuilding.AsimilarattacktargetedtheembassyinJanuary.

Iraq

AnewIslamicStatepropagandavideoconfirmsthegroup'scontroloverRamadiandclaimsmilitantswillnexttargetthecitiesofBaghdadandKarbala.Thevideo,called"IslamicStateControlsRamadi,"showsmilitantscelebratingintheprovincialcapitalaftercapturingitMay17.However,Iraqitroopsandalliedtribalelements,bolsteredbynewlyarrivedShiitemilitias,havecontainedtheIslamicState'sadvanceandareattemptingtosurroundthecityinpreparationforacounterattack.

May 18

Syria

TheIslamicStatetookfullcontrolofthealHailandArakgasfieldsMay18,located40and25kilometers(25



and15miles)respectivelynortheastofPalmyra.ThetwogasfieldswereavitalsourceofenergyfortheterritoriescontrolledbySyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheIslamicStatehasbeenfightinginandaroundtheancientcityofPalmyrasinceMay13atonepointthegroupcontrolledamajorityofthecity'snorthbeforebeingpushedoutbygovernmentforces.Approximately364peoplehavebeenkilledinPalmyra,including62civilians,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.

Iraq

ShiitemilitiamengatheredMay18attheAlHabbaniyahmilitarybase,locatedapproximately30kilometers(19miles)fromRamadi,inpreparationforacounteroffensiveagainsttheIslamicState.TheIslamicStateseizedRamadi,thelargestcityinAnbarProvince,onMay17,inwhatisconsideredoneofthemostsignificantlossesfortheIraqigovernmentsincethefallofMosullastsummer.TheU.S.ledcoalitionconducted19airstrikesover72hoursinandaroundRamadibutwasunabletostoptheIslamicStatefromseizingthecity.ReportsnowsuggestthattheIslamicStateisadvancingontheAlHabbaniyamilitarybaseinordertostopShiitemilitiasfromconductingacounteroffensive.

May 17

Iraq

IslamicStatemilitantsclaimedfullcontrolofRamadi,theprovincialcapitalofAnbarprovince,westernIraq,themilitantgroupsaidinastatement.ThestatementcomesafterPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiauthorizedadeploymentofShiitemilitiastotakebackthearea.IslamicStatemilitantspreviousdrovesecurityforcesfromtheAnbarOperationsCommandinwesternIraqonthesameday,Iraqitroopssaid.ItisthebiggestgainforIslamicStateinIraqsincesecurityforcesandShiitemilitiasbeganpushingthegroupbackincitieslikeTikrit.

Syria

LoyalistforcesregainedcontrolofPalmyraonMay17afterIslamicStatemilitantsseizedthenorthernpartofthetownMay16,aSyrianofficialsaid.Gov.TalalBaraziofHomsprovincealsosaidSyriantroopsrecapturedtwohillsfromthemilitantsandthatarmyreinforcementshavebeensent.SyrianoppositionactivistsconfirmedthatIslamicStatefighterswithdrewfromagovernmentbuildingtheyhadtakeninthenorthernpartofthetown,thoughfightingbetweenthetwosidescontinued.

May 16

Syria

AmidongoingclashesMay16,IslamicStatefighterspushedforcesloyaltoPresidentBasharalAssadoutofmuchofthenorthernpartofPalmyra,Syria,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.TheIslamicStateoffensiveonthecitybeganMay13.InanotherblowtoDamascus,Turkishmilitaryjetsengaged

Baghdad Considers Shiite OptionAfter Ramadi's Fall



andbroughtdownaSyrianaircraftMay16afteritenteredTurkeysairspacewithoutauthorization.TheidentityandtypeoftheSyrianaircraftarebothstillunclear.

ElsewhereinSyria,aU.S.SpecialForcesoperationinalAmr,SyriaorderedbyPresidentBarackObamahaskilledAbuSayyaf,anIslamicStatecommanderinchargeofoilandnaturalgassales,DefenseSecretaryAshtonCartersaidMay16.U.S.troopscapturedAbuSayyafswife,UmmSayyaf,anddetainedherinIraq.ThisisthefirstspecialoperationsraidinsideofSyriasincethe2014failedattempttofreeIslamicStatehostages.

May 15

Syria

FightersfromtheSyrianarmyandHezbollahgainedfullcontrolofthestrategicJabalalBarouhmountainrangeonMay14.TheterritoryoverlooksanimportanthighwaythatrunsalongtheLebaneseborderandconnectsDamascustoHoms.InaseparateincidentMay14,HezbollahandtheSyrianarmydefeatedacontingentofJabhatalNusrafightersinwestQalamoun.ThevictoryisthemostsignificantwinforSyrianPresidentBasharalAssadsincefightingbrokeoutinQalamounonMay3.

Iraq

IslamicStatemilitantscapturedthegovernmentcomplexincentralRamadiafterlaunchinganovernightoffensiveonthecityMay15.MilitantscapturedthegovernmentbuildingsfollowingintensefightingthroughoutRamadi,duringwhichsixsuicidecarbombsweredetonatedandatleast50Iraqimilitarypersonnelwerekilled.Coalitionforceshaverespondedbylaunchingairstrikesinthearea.

Soonafter,IslamicStatemilitantscapturedthetownofJubahatownnorthwestofRamadiwherehundredsofU.S.advisorsarestationed.EarlierMay15,theIslamicStatesecuredterritoryeastofFallujah,killing200Iraqisoldiersandcapturingatleast59others,AlQudsAlArabireported.Recentreportsindicatemilitantsarecontinuingtheirwestwardpush,attackingaresidentialareainBaghdadiandbeseiging700families.

May 14

Syria

FightingbetweentheIslamicStateandSyriantroopsthreatenstheancientSyriancityofPalmyra,aUNESCOworldheritagesite,theSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightssaid.Accordingtoreports,thefightingisabout2kilometers(slightlymorethanamile)fromthesite.ThereportscomeasaninternationalconferenceisheldinCairoaddressingthedestructionoftheNimrudandHatrahistoricalsitesinIraqbytheIslamicState.

Middle East, United States

GeopoliticalDiary:U.S.PresidentBarackObama'sCampDavidretreatforSunniGulfleaderswillnotberememberedforthediplomaticsnubs,defensedealsoreventhenuclearproliferation



threats.ItwillberememberedasthemostvividillustrationofachangingbalanceofpowerintheMiddleEastafterthreeandahalfdecadesofacrimoniousU.S.Iranrelations

ThelastmajorshiftintheU.S.relationshipwiththePersianGulfstatestookplaceinthe1970s,inthethickoftheColdWar.The34yearolddeputycrownprince,MohammedbinSalman,andthe55yearoldcrownprince,MohammedbinNayef,maybetooyoungtofullyunderstandwhattheirroyaleldersstruggledwithintryingtoensurethattheglobalhegemonwouldnotsacrificetheHouseofSaudtoitsPersianallies.Afterall,anentiregenerationhasonlyknownaworldinwhichU.S.supportforSaudiArabiaandhostilitytowardIranwereagiven.ButthemandateofKingSalman'ssuccessorsatCampDavidwasclear:topreventhistory

fromrepeatingitself.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiary:CampDavidandtheU.S.PowerofChoiceintheMiddleEast.

May 13

Syria

Afteraconflictthatkilledsome48soldiersandmilitantsandwoundedatleast100othersMay12,theIslamicStatecapturedthestrategictownofAlSukhnah,locatedinSyria'sHomsprovince,accordingtoanactivistgroup.ThetownislocatednearthehighwaythatleadsfromIslamicStatestrongholdDeirelZourprovincetotheregimecontrolledancienttownofPalmyra.DeirelZourislocatedinthedesertregioneastofHomsandisapartoftheIslamicState'sselfdescribedcaliphateinSyriaandIraq.

HezbollahfightersandSyrianforcesgainedcontrolonMay13ofTalitMoussa,thehighestpeakintheQalamounregion.ThestrategicpositionwillhelptheSyrianarmyanditsalliestomonitorrebelmovementsanddefendthelargeswathesofterritoryitgainedinrecentadvances.RegimeforcestookcontrolofatleastninerebelpositionsMay13,thelatestinaseriesofgainsoverthepastweek,aspartofbroaderoffensiveagainstrebelmilitantsthatbeganinMay.

Iraq

AccordingtoIraqiDefenseMinistrySpokesmanBrig.Gen.TahsinIbrahim,IslamicStatesecondincommandAbdulRahmanMustafaMohammad,knownasAbuAlaaalAfri,waskilledalongwithdozensofmilitantsinanairstrikeonaTalAfarmosque.UnconfirmedreportsinrecentweekshaveallegedthatalAfrihadtakencommandofthegroupaftertheinjuryofleaderAbuBakralBaghdadi.

Analysis:TheIraqigovernmentpreviouslyreportedthatIslamicStateleaderAbuBakralBaghdadiwaswoundedinaMarch18airstrikeinNinevah'salBaajdistrictandthatalAfarihad

Conversation: U.S. Attempts toReassure Arab Countries at CampDavid



assumedoperationalcontrolofthegroup.TheUnitedStateshasdeniedthatreport.However,eveniftheworstcasescenariofortheIslamicStateistrue,withalBaghdadiseriouslywoundedandalAfarikilled,itisunlikelytohaveanysignificantandimmediateimpactonthebattlefieldinIraqandSyria.

IfalBaghdadiwaswoundedandincapacitatedinMarch,theIslamicState'soperationshaveshownnosignsofit.Theorganizationislargeandhighlyinstitutionalized,containingsufficientredundanciesandpracticingextensivedivisionoflabor.Ithasalsopreparedfordecapitationstrikesandhasweatheredtheminthepast.Forexample,inthemonthsfollowingtheJune2006airstrikethatkilledAbuMusabalZarqawi,therewasactuallyanincreaseintheattackstargetingcoalitiontroopsinsteadofadecrease.ThegroupalsosurvivedanApril2010airstrikethatkilleditstwotopleaders,AbuOmaralBaghdadiandAbuAyyubalMasri.EvensincetheUnitedStatesanditspartnersbeganairstrikesagainsttheIslamicStateinSeptember2014,severalofthegroup'sregionalemirshavebeenkilledbutwerequicklyreplaced.Moreover,alAfariisacleric,notamilitaryleader,andthemenplanningandconductingthegroup'smilitaryoperationsarestilllargelyintact.Readthefullanalysis:CouldtheIslamicStateSurviveLosingItsLeaders?

May 12



Syria

Iraq

TheIraqigovernmentreprehendedHungaryinastatementreleasedMay12forallegedlysupportingKurdishindependence,Rudawreported.ThestatementfollowedajointpressconferenceheldbyHungarianPrimeMinisterViktorOrbanandKurdistanRegionalGovernmentPresidentMassoudBarzani,duringwhichOrbansaidHungarysupportsnationsstrivingforindependence.TheIraqigovernmentcalledthestatementsinterferenceandaskedthatcountriesrespectIraq'ssovereignty.

May 11

U.S., Russia

U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywilltraveltoSochionMay11tomeetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovandotherRussianofficials,theU.S.StateDepartmentsaidinastatement.Kerryisexpectedtodiscussbilateralandregionalsecurityissues,includingtheconflictsinUkraineandSyriaandnuclearnegotiationswithIran.AftervisitingRussia,KerrywilltraveltoTurkeytoattendaNATOmeeting,beforejoiningU.S.PresidentBarackObamainWashingtontomeetwithGulfCooperationCouncilleaders.

Iraq

Iraqisecurityforces,ShiitemilitiasandPeshmergafightersrepelledtwoIslamicStateattacksagainsttheAjeelandBeijioilfieldsonMay10and11.IraqispecialoperationsforcesandShiitemilitiamenreportedlykilled73IslamicStatefightersattheAjeeloilfield,locatedtotheeastofTikrit.InBeiji,IraqisecurityforcesandPeshmergafighterskilled40IslamicStatefightersanddestroyedsixvehicleswhilealsogainingcontrolovertwostrategictownstothesouthoftheoilfield.

May 10

Iraq

FightingbetweenIraqisecurityforcesandIslamicStatemilitantsinFallujahonMay10killedatleast20peopleandwoundedatleast19,securitysourcessaid.Duringthebattle,threesuicidebombersblewuptheirexplosiveladenvehicles,leavingatleast10securitymemberskilledandeightotherswounded.Meanwhile,U.S.ledcoalitionwarplanesprovidedairsupportatthebattlefieldnearFallujah,killingatleastsevenIslamicStatemilitantsandwounding11others.TheintensefightingcomesassecurityforcesandtheiralliescontinuetobattlethemilitantgroupacrossIraq.

May 7

Syria

KhaledKhoja,presidentoftheNationalCoalitionforSyrianRevolutionandOppositionForces,askedthe



UnitedStatesonMay7toprovideairsupportsothatrebelsoldierscouldestablishasafezoneandtransitionalgovernmentwithinSyria.TherequestcameaftertheWashingtonPostreportedthatregionalpowers,SaudiArabiaandTurkey,hadconfirmedthattheywouldcoordinatetheireffortstosupportrebelunitsanddefeatSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.Rebelgroups,includingtheIslamicStateandJabhatalNusra,haverecentlymadegainsinwesternSyriaandontheoutskirtsofDamascus,threateningalAssad'sholdonpower.However,HurriyetDailyNewsalsoreportedthatTurkey'sEnergyMinister,TanerYildiz,saidthatTurkeyhasnoplansforimmediatemilitaryinterventioninSyria.

GeopoliticalDiary:WhilethewarinYemenremainsinconclusive,SaudiArabiaisescalatingitsinterventioninSyria.UnliketheYemenitheater,wheretheSaudisarethelargestmilitaryforce,theSyrianbattlegroundwillbemorecomplexforRiyadh.TheSaudiswillbepartneringwithTurkey,andRiyadhandAnkaraarenotincompleteagreement.Iran'ssupportfortheSyriangovernmentwillalsocomplicatematters,aswillU.S.nervousnessaboutjihadistsfillinganyvacuumleftinDamascusifthegovernmentfalls.Moreover,theU.S.ledcoalitionoperationsagainsttheIslamicStateinSyriawillnotmakethesituationsimpler.

Nevertheless,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyhavereportedlyagreedonadealtogreatlyenhancesupportforrebelsfightingSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad'sgovernmentforces.Separately,AFPreportedthatSyrianoppositionforceshadsaidtheSaudikingdomwantstounitemostofSyria'srebelfactionsandisorganizingagatheringinmidJunetothisend.Meanwhile,TurkishandQatariforeignministersaremeetingtodiscussSyriaandotherregionalissues.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiary:InTurkey,SaudiArabiaFindsanUnlikelyPartnerAgainstSyria.

May 6

Syria

SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadsaidMay6thathewassendingreinforcementstoJisralShughour.JabhatalNusraandotherrebelgroupscapturedthetownonApril24,butsomegovernmentsoldiersremaininthecity.JisralShughourisstrategicallysignificantand,ifcompletelycapturedbyrebels,wouldfacilitateoffensivesintoalAssad'scoastalstrongholds.

AlsoonMay6,IslamicStatefightersattackedabaseinthenortheasternSyrianprovinceofalHasaka,killingatleast16membersofSyrianKurdishsecurityforces.AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,themilitantsdetonatedabombusingacarandthenopenedfireonabuildinghousingKurdishsecurityforces.

AnewbookbyXavierPanonallegesthatFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeadmittedinaprivateinterviewtoprovidingSyrianrebelswithweaponsin2012,despiteanembargobeinginplace.Accordingtothebook,Francedeliveredcannons,machineguns,rocketlaunchersandantitankmissilestotherebelsopposingSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheEuropeanembargoonweaponswasinplacefromJune2011toMay2013.Beforenow,Francehadonlyadmittedtoprovidingrebelswithnonlethalaid.

May 4



Syria

ThousandsofIslamistmilitantsledbyJabhatalNusraforcesattackedSyrianarmyandHezbollahpositionsalongtheLebaneseborderMay4.Militantsfiredrockets,surfacetosurfacemissilesandmortarshellsontroopsneartheSyriantownsofKfeir,Zabadani,SerghayaandHreira,inflictingheavylosses.TheattackscameafterSyrianandalliedforcesadvancedintostrategicallyimportantsectionsofthewesternQalamounmountainrange.Syrianforceshavedestroyedmilitants'vehiclesandheldtheirpositions,butclashesareongoing.Hezbollah'smilitaryparticipationhasbeenintegraltotheSyrianarmy'sadvancesoverthecourseoftheconflict.

AlsoonMay4,mortarroundsfiredfromSyrialandedintheGolanHeights,injuringapairofU.N.peacekeepers.Thetwosoldiers'woundswereminorandtheyweretakentoIsraelformedicalcare.TheIsraeliarmysaidthemortarshellswerestrayfirefromtheconflictinSyria.CompetingrebelgroupshavebeenclashingneartheceasefirelinealongtheIsraelioccupiedGolanHeightsforthepastweek.

May 2

Turkey, Syria

AU.S.ledinitiativewithTurkeytotrainandequipaforceof15,000SyrianrebelswillbeginMay9,TurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglusaidMay.Around120U.S.soldiersarrivedatTurkey'sIncirlikairbaseMay1.Ofthesetroops,40willtravelonwardtotheHirfanlimilitarytrainingcenterinKirshrprovince.

Iraq

IraqiforceseastofIslamicStatecontrolledGarma,Anbarprovincekilled17militantsMay2,accordingtoanonymoussources.AlsoonMay2suicidebombernearGarmakilled12Iraqitroopsatamilitarybase.IraqiforcestookcontrolofthealTheilahdistrictofAnbar'scapital,Ramadi,fromIslamicStatemilitants.

May 1

Iraq

Iraq'scrudeoilexportsforthemonthofAprilwerethehighesttheyhavebeensincethe1980stheIraqiOilMinistryannouncedMay1.Atotalof92.3millionbarrelswereexportedduringthemonth,amountingtoapproximately$4.8billioninrevenue.Anestimated2millionbarrelsperdaywereexportedatpricesthatreached$51.70perbarrel.

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