US Steel Industry - Aug '13

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Transcript of US Steel Industry - Aug '13

Page 1: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

Copyright © 2013 RNCOS. All rights reserved.Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pagesare copyrighted by RNCOS. All rights reserved. No part ofthese pages, either text or image may be used for anypurpose other than personal use. Therefore,reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval systemor retransmission, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons otherthan personal use, is strictly prohibited without priorwritten permission.

Page 2: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

US steel industry is equipped to lead due to ample

supplies of affordable energy through natural gas,

stable labor relations, a vast steel market and a drive

for innovation. Besides these factors, rising

technology and innovation is also continue to drive

the steel industry through challenges faced whether

its trade issues, environmental, or the general

volatility of the global steel economy.

Further, steel has long been considered the

backbone of the country's manufacturing sector,

providing an essential material for downstream

manufacturers in the automotive, energy,

machinery and equipment, container, appliance and

rail industries.

Presently, construction industry accounts major

share of steel consumption in the country followed

by automotive and machinery & equipment

industry. In future, along with construction and

automobile sector, energy sector is also expected to

grow tremendously on the back of tremendous

growth of demand from oil & gas sector.

US Steel Industry - Overview

Figure 1: Steel Shipments by Sector (%), 2012 & 2017

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute, IhS Global InsightNote: Data is estimated

Source: RNCOS

Page 3: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

The US is the third largest crude steel

producer in the world after China

(Production 716.5 Million Metric Tons in

2012) and Japan (Production 107.2

Million Metric Tons in 2012). In 2012,

Crude steel production in the country

witnessed an increase of more than 2.5%

to reach 88.6 Million Metric Tons

compared to the previous year. Further, it

is expected to grow at CAGR of around

4.5% during 2012-2017. Besides, country's

share in world's crude steel production in

2012 was 5.7%.

US Steel Industry - Market Size and Growth Rate

Figure 2: Crude Steel Production (Million Metric Tons),2009-2012 & 2017

Source: World Steel Association, RNCOSNote: f = RNCOS Forecast

Figure 3: Apparent Steel Consumption (Million Metric Tons),2009-2012 & 2017

Source: RNCOSNote: Crude Steel Equivalents

With the improving demand from

various industrial sectors, steel

consumption (Crude Steel Equivalent)

in 2011 grew 10.7% compared to 2010.

However, apparent steel consumption is

anticipated to grow at CAGR of around

4.3% during 2012-17 to reach around

130 Million Metric Tons by the end of

2017.

Page 4: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

Further, apparent consumption for finished steel

products is grew 8.4% in 2012 from the previous year.

In future, due to the automotive and energy sectors

and an increasingly resilient construction recovery,

apparent steel consumption is forecasted to at a

CAGR of more than 4% during 2012-2017.

Figure 4: Apparent Finished Steel Consumption(Million Metric Tons), 2012 & 2017

Source: World Steel Association, RNCOSNote: f = RNCOS Forecast

In 2012, steel exports and import grew more than 10.5% and 1% respectively compared to previous year. In coming

years, export is anticipated to rise further as domestic demand is not expected to reach pre-recession levels before

2015 as construction spending languishes. However, imports growth is expected to be affected by high antidumping

and countervailing duties imposed by the US authorities.

Figure 5: Export and Import of Steel (Million Net Tons), 2010-2012

Source: World Steel Association, RNCOS

Page 5: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

In the US, major fraction of the crude steel produced is of continuously cast steel type accounting 98% of the total crude

steel production. Moreover, it is expected that ingots production share will further decline in the coming years due to

high cost of production and various other disadvantages over continuously cast steel process.

US Steel Industry - Market Breakup/Segmentation

Figure 6: Crude Steel Production by Type (2012)

Source: RNCOS

In the US, flat products account for a major share in total apparent steel consumption in the country. In 2012, share

of flat products consumption is estimated to 58% share in total steel consumption, followed by long products.

Figure 7: Apparent Steel Consumption by Type (2012)

Source: RNCOS

Page 6: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

US Steel Industry - Opportunities and Challenges

▪ Positive momentum from the construction sector will prosper steel industry. Recently, MTA (Metropolitan

Transportation Authority) announced to buy steel from domestic companies for its Verrazano bridge project which

has a demand of 15,000 Tons of steel plate.

▪ The strong growth from automotive industry.

▪ Demand from energy sector is also growing. For instance, US shale gas revolution is going to create a need for more

steel that goes into the pipes to bring the gas to the user.

▪ Upcoming breakthrough technologies as next generation of iron and steel making technologies that reduce or

eliminate CO2 emissions and manufacturing of lighter steel for automobiles will also boost the growth of steel industry.

▪ Rising import levels hurting country's steel manufacturers.

▪ Volatility in raw material costs are making domestic production costly.

▪ General economic uncertainty due to country's tax reforms and spending cuts. (Though the best case scenario is a

slight improvement in steel demand in the US with a GDP growth of 2.5%, if Congress is unable to reach a

compromise on tax reforms, it could lead to market uncertainty and economic disruptions).

▪ New EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) rules are also going to have an effect on the steel sector - particularly

those supplying to the automotive industry. Vehicles will have to be lighter, and therefore there is the threat of

aluminum or plastic substitution.

Page 7: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

US Steel Industry - Future OutlookIn future, growth in the United States will be supported by

strong momentum in the auto sector which is expected to

account around 27% share of steel consumption by the end

of 2017. Automobile production in US is growing at CAGR

of around 15% during 2010-12, exhibiting ample

opportunities for steel industry to grow.

In addition to that, recovery in construction sector is also

boosting the country's steel industry and expected to

account 42% share of total steel consumption in the

country.

Also, demand from US$ 235 Million worth Verrazano

Bridge project will boost the demand of steel orthotropic

decks in the country. MTA is going to spend US$ 201

Million on U.S. products and labor.

Additionally, demand for steel tubes to use for drills, well

casing, pipelines and other equipment will also rise on the

back of country's shale gas revolution. Companies such as

U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal have been racing to develop

steel for the resurgent Detroit auto industry and pipes for

the shale gas revolution.

Oil and gas industry might be responsible for about a third

of expected 20% growth in the US steel market by 2020.

Even so, other uses such as construction and the car

industry are still very important.

Besides that, various companies such as Pro-Tec Coating

Co. and NanoSteel are working towards research and

development in the field of steel for making it lighter,

stronger, more easily formable steel to help automakers

meet the tougher fuel economy and safety standards which

will help the steel industry to grow further and to

overcome EPA norms' challenge.

Although country's US steel industry is growing

countinuously; huge global overcapacity, sluggish demand

in many sectors, and prices that have been falling steadily

since 2011, are still the major challenges in US Steel

Industry.

Page 8: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

US Steel Industry - Key Players

▪ Nucor Corporation

▪ United States Steel Corporation

▪ Gerdau Ameristeel

▪ Commercial Metals Company

▪ Steel Dynamics, Inc.

▪ AK Steel Holding Corporation

▪ Arcelormittal Holdings Inc.

▪ Allegheny Technologies

In 2012, global production of crude steel hit a record 1.55 Billion Tons, up 1.2% from 2011. Even in the U.S., where the

manufacturing sector is not seeing its finest days, steel production led by mills run by U.S. Steel Corp. and Arcelor

Mittal in the Midwest, and Nucor Corp. in the South, rose 2.5% to 88.5 Million Tons last year. While all the three

companies faced revenue drop in 2012. Revenue of U.S. Steel Corp., Arcelor Mittal and Nucor Corp. declined by 2.8%,

10.38% and 2.97% respectively from 2011.

Page 9: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

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Page 10: US Steel Industry - Aug '13

RNCOS is a business consultancy services firm that provides services to clients across the Globe. With more than a

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Vartika Sehgal

Sr. Research Specialist

RNCOS

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