U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011
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Transcript of U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The U.S. Solar Industry: Story Behind the Headlines
Shayle KannManaging Director, Solar
GTM Research
U.S. Solar Market Insight
November 16, 2011OR – Day 67 A.S.
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2011 Has Been a Tough Year For Solar Manufacturers
Source: GTM Research
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Fall-Out in the U.S.
Bankruptcies
Plant Closures
Media (Over)Reaction
Trade War
Vs.
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Trade Petition – Near-Term Questions
• Timing – 1603 vs. Potential Duties
• Q4 Shipment Boom – Bigger or Smaller?
• Financing and Redesign for Late-Stage Projects
• Will Suppliers Take on the Duty Risk?
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Growing Importance of the U.S. End Market
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007
NV
NJ
COCA
Source: GTM Research
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2011E
HI
NVCO
CA
FL
AZ NM
TX
OHPA
MANY
NC
NJ
OR
Source: GTM Research
DEMD
TN
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Latest Installation Numbers
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Non-Residential Market In a State of Flux
Source: GTM Research
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Third-Party Finance
Providers
Module Suppliers w/ Residential
Lease Programs
Finance Providers w/
Subcontracted Installations
Residential Integrators/Financ
e Providers
Tax Equity
Providers
U.S. Residential Solar Lease Landscape
Source: GTM Research
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Small Duty; Chinese Suppliers Remain Active
Project Financing
GlobalSupply/Demand
Balance
Chinese Cell /ModuleImport Duty
1603 Cash Grant
Extension
Tax Equity Supply
State Legislati
on
New Market Development
Dri
vers
Const
rain
ts
Global Oversupply
Global Undersupply
Large Duty; Disappearance of Chinese Suppliers
Increased Tax Equity from Corporates, New Entrants
Tax Equity Bottleneck, Rates >15%-17%
Module Pricing State Market Dynamics
NY SolarJobs Act
NJ: S2371
PA: HB 1580
OH RPS Roll-Back
CSI FundingDepletion
Growth inTX, MO,IL, PR
The Spectrum of Possibilities for 2012
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go
Source: DOE, GTM Research
Source: EIA, GTM Research
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COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Thank You!Shayle Kann
Managing Director, Solar
GTM Research
Email: [email protected]
www.gtmresearch.com
U.S. Solar Market Insight Reports U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker