US Planck Data Analysis Review 1 Lloyd KnoxUS Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006 The...
-
Upload
myrtle-carr -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of US Planck Data Analysis Review 1 Lloyd KnoxUS Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006 The...
US Planck Data Analysis ReviewUS Planck Data Analysis Review
Lloyd Knox US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006
The Science Potential of PlanckThe Science Potential of Planck
Lloyd Knox (UC Davis)
2 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
OutlineOutline
Review of Accomplishments of CMB Science
Great Opportunities Remain and Planck is poised to exploit them
– Planck capabilities compared with WMAP
– Parameter Error Forecasts
– Planck as an Inflation Probe
– Other Science: BBN, dark energy
3 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
CMB AccomplishmentsCMB Accomplishments
CMB is a powerful cosmological probe
– Applicability of linear theory highly precise theoretical calculations
– Richness of angular power spectrum phenomenology (all those bumps and wiggles… not just a power law) lots of information
CMB is a proven technique with many importantimportant accomplishments
– Confirming our basic picture of structure formation (gravitational instability)
– Confirming dark energy (acceleration inferred from SN data not widely accepted until confirmed by CMB)
– Verifying prediction #1 of inflation (tot = 1 c.f. ~0.2)
– Ruling out defect model for structure formation in favor of inflation
– Verifying prediction #2 of inflation: correlations on super-horizon scales
– Verifying prediction #3 of inflation: nearly scale-invariant spectrum of primordial perturbations
– Best constraints on key cosmological parameters: baryon density, matter density, amplitude of primordial perturbations, temperature of the CMB
– WMAP1 cosmological interpretation paper (Spergel et al. 2003) has 3207 citations to date! This has been the default paper to cite for ‘cosmology’.
3239
4 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted TT Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted TT Power Spectrum ErrorsPower Spectrum Errors
Simulated 4-year
Model (red curves) has n_s = 1
Enabled by Planck’s greater sensitivity, angular resolution and frequency coverage
WMAP has revealed 4% of the information content* of the CMB temperature anisotropies.
Planck will reveal 64%. *(Percentage of a_{lm}’s at l < 2000 with s/n > 1)
5 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted EE Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted EE Power Spectrum ErrorsPower Spectrum Errors
Simulated 4-year
Enabled by Planck’s greater sensitivity, angular resolution and frequency coverage
6 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Parameter Error ForecastsParameter Error ForecastsBaryon Density
Dark Matter Density
Primordial Amplitude
Optical Depth of Reionized IGM
Primordial Perturbation Power Spectrum Power Law Spectral Index
Running
Expansion Rate
PlanckWMAP 4yr
Qualitative Advance in Precision
Inflation
7 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
InflationInflation
Inflation is our leading paradigm for the origin of the hot Big Bang and generator of the primordial perturbations which are the seeds of all structures in the Universe (galaxies, stars, advisory boards).The CMB is the single best way, by far, to study inflation and the primordial perturbations no matter what their origin.
8 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Current Constraints on Inflation ParametersCurrent Constraints on Inflation Parameters
Sp
erge
l et
al. (
2006
)
On the verge of verifying yet another prediction of inflation!
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
9 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Ruling out Harrison-ZeldovichRuling out Harrison-Zeldovich
Planck will nail it by
– using long lever arm enabled by high resolution and high sensitivity with no cross-experiment relative calibration challenges
– cleanly controlling SZ contribution due to frequency coverage to higher frequencies where spectral shapes are very different
– determining with low-l polarization to break the -ns degeneracy
The first point is the dominant one. With the measurement extended to high l there is no need to use the low l data (affected by reionization) to get n_s.
Discarding all data at l < 40 will degrade Planck’s error on n_s by less than 10%.
10 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Long Lever ArmLong Lever Arm
Simulated 4-year
Model (red curves) has n_s = 1
Planck will provide precision probe of primordial scalar power spectrum.
11 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Detecting Tensor (Gravitational Wave) Detecting Tensor (Gravitational Wave) PerturbationsPerturbations
The scalar perturbation spectrum is a great probe of inflation, but the tensor perturbation spectrum is more direct.
The scalar spectrum is determined by a combination of the expansion rate during inflation and how it’s changing with time. The tensor spectrum depends only on the expansion rate during inflation, and thus the energy scale of inflation.
Tensor perturbations produce polarization B modes, while scalar perturbations, to first-order, do not.
Detectability of tensor B modes depends sensitively on this energy scale.
– + GUT-scale inflation produces detectable tensor perturbations.
– + Simplest models of inflation, when tuned to have the observed scalar perturbation amplitude, have an energy scale ~ GUT-scale.
– + Gauge-coupling unification hints at new physics at the GUT scale.
12 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
BB Power SpectrumBB Power Spectrum
BB power spectrum for r=0.1 and =0.17
Planck Bluebook
Influence of tensors may be
detectable in the BB power spectrum.
0.1 K2
Tensor signal
Scalar contamination
r = T/S is proportional to H_{inf}^2
13 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Current Constraints on Inflation ParametersCurrent Constraints on Inflation Parameters
Sp
erge
l et
al. (
2006
)
Simplest models have detectable values of r.
14 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
BB Power SpectrumBB Power Spectrum
BB power spectrum for r=0.1 and =0.17
Planck Bluebook
Influence of tensors may be
detectable in the BB power spectrum.
0.1 K2
r = T/S is proportional to H_{inf}^2
15 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Polarized Foreground EmissionPolarized Foreground Emission
Page et al. (2006)
0.1 K2
Foreground cleaning is terribly important for polarization! Planck’s broad frequency coverage will be highly valuable.
16 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Other Signatures of InflationOther Signatures of Inflation
Isocurvature modes. Some inflation models produce isocurvature perturbations. Planck’s polarization measurements enable it to set much tighter upper limits on their ampitudes, or possibly detect them.
Non-Gaussianity. Planck will improve error on the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter f_{nl} from \pm 25 to \pm 2.7, providing a strong constraint on the inflationary model space. Even with currrent accuracies some string-inspired inflation models have been ruled out already.
17 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
OutlineOutline
Review of Accomplishments of CMB Science
Great Opportunities Remain and Planck is poised to exploit them
– Planck capabilities compared with WMAP
– Parameter Error Forecasts
– Planck as an Inflation Probe
– Other Science: BBN and dark energy
18 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Planck and Model DependencePlanck and Model Dependence
All parameter inferences from the CMB are highly indirect and therefore model dependent.
Planck will enable us to test the models much better than can do with current data.
BBN example: – Assuming no isocurvature modes the WMAP3 constraints
on baryon density have errors of a few per cent.
– Dropping this assumption the uncertainty becomes 20%, assuming 4 years of WMAP and 2% assuming Planck.
– There are interesting discrepancies in light element abundance determinations. Only deuterium agrees with nominal WMAP constraint.
19 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Dark EnergyDark Energy
CMB experiments are important for Dark Energy probes because they pin down the parameters of the high-redshift Universe and the distance to last scattering.
All forecasts for proposed dark energy probes assume that – Planck flies
– The data are analyzed
– The data are released
20 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
SummarySummary
The CMB has been the technique for studying cosmology.
Most of the information content in the CMB has not yet been revealed, but will be by Planck (4% c.f. 64%).
Planck is an inflation probe that is going to happen soon.
21 US Planck Data Analysis Review • 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox
Parameter errors and assumptions about initial Parameter errors and assumptions about initial conditionsconditions
Trotta and Durrer (2004)
e.g., error in zeq goes from 3.5% to 14% for WMAP4
And the error in zeq goes from 1% to 1.5% for Planck