US Navy Helicopter Mishap Findings & Recommendations · 2011-10-11 · 28 Birthplace, Home and...
Transcript of US Navy Helicopter Mishap Findings & Recommendations · 2011-10-11 · 28 Birthplace, Home and...
Birthplace, Home and Future of Aerospace Medicine
US Navy Helicopter Mishap US Navy Helicopter Mishap Findings & RecommendationsFindings & Recommendations
Lt Col Rawson WoodLt Col Rawson Wood
Lt Col Rick MooneyLt Col Rick Mooney
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Statement of AccountabilityStatement of Accountability
• This brief represents the position of the researchers. It does not represent the position of any other organization including the United States Air Force or the Department of Defense
• This study is the fourth part of a study of all U.S. DoD rotary wing mishaps
Cleared for public release by ASC Public Affairs.Disposition Date: 3 May 2007Document Number: AFRL-WS 07-1100
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BackgroundBackground
• 393 US Navy and USMC Class A and B mishaps from safety center database, divided into 2 deciles
• Fiscal year 1985-1994 (10 years) compared to FY 1995-2005 (11 years)
• Categorized by researcher, based on mishap review, as human factors (HF) or non-HF mishap • HF mishaps involve errors made by aircrew only,
not ATC, maintenance or supervisors• Airframe types combined (UH1 = UH1J + UH1N) • Excel & Epi Info™ used for analysis
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OverviewOverview
• Force & Mishap Characterization• Overview By Type of Platform• Mishap Rates by Type and Decile• Fatality Rates Embarked and Ashore• The Risk at Night• The Risk By Phase of Flight, Mishap Cause &
Brownout• Human Factors & Velocity• Conclusions & Recommendations
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Force & Mishap Characterization
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Average Annual Inventory Size Average Annual Inventory Size FY 85 FY 85 –– 0505
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Number in Fleet
AH-1
UH-1
H-46
H-53
H-60
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Utilization Rates,Utilization Rates,Hours per AircraftHours per Aircraft--Year, FY 85 Year, FY 85 –– 0505
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Hours per Aircraft-Year
AH-1
UH-1
H-46
H-53
H-60
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% of Inventory, FY 85 % of Inventory, FY 85 –– 05, Involved in 05, Involved in Class A or B HF MishapsClass A or B HF Mishaps
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Involved
AH-1
UH-1
H-46
H-53
H-60
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% of Inventory, FY 85 % of Inventory, FY 85 –– 05, Involved in 05, Involved in Class A or B NHF MishapsClass A or B NHF Mishaps
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Involved
AH-1
UH-1
H-46
H-53
H-60
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Overview by Type of Platform
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AHAH--1, Cobra1, Cobra
• Models AH-1J, T, W• First flew in 1967• Fleet size
• 207 (1990)• 154 (2000)
• Class A mishaps • 14 (1985-1994) • 12 (1995-2005)
• Fatalities• 20 (1985-1994)• 10 (1995-2005)
• Injured • 14 (1985-1994)• 13 (1995-2005)
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UHUH--1, Iroquois (Huey)1, Iroquois (Huey)• Models: UH-1D, E, J, K, N• First flew in 1967• Fleet size
• 79 (1990)• 142 (2000)
• Class A mishaps • 25 (1985-1994)• 15 (1995-2005)
• Fatalities • 63 (1985-1994)• 24 (1995-2005)
• Injured • 54 (1985-1994)• 56 (1995-2005)
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HH--46, Sea Knight46, Sea Knight
• Models C/HH-46A, D, E• First flew in 1962• Fleet size
• 481 (1990) • 319 (2000)
• Class A mishaps• 44 (1985-1994)• 20 (1995-2005)
• Fatalities • 89 (1985-1994)• 53 (1995-2005)
• Injured • 225 (1985-1994)• 41 (1995-2005)
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HH--53, Super Stallion53, Super Stallion
• Models: CH-53A, D, E• First flew in 1964• Fleet size
• 141 (1990)• 185 (2000)
• Class A mishaps • 26 (1985-1994)• 15 (1995-2005)
• Fatalities • 99 (1985-1994)• 48 (1995-2005)
• Injured • 138 (1985-1994)• 43 (1995-2005)
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HH--60, 60, SeaHawkSeaHawk
• SH-60B/F, UH-60L, VH-60N, HH-60H, others
• First flew in 1974• Fleet size
• 237 (1990)• 276 (2000)
• Class A mishaps • 15 (1985-1994)• 21 (1995-2005)
• Fatalities • 12 (1985-1994) • 24 (1995-2005)
• Injured • 21 (1985-1994)• 59 (1995-2005)
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Mishap Rates by Type and Decile
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U.S. Navy Helicopter Class A Mishap U.S. Navy Helicopter Class A Mishap RatesRates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Airframe
Cla
ss A
Mis
hap/
100k
Hrs
1985-19941995-2005
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Class A Mishap Rate by Decile Class A Mishap Rate by Decile (1(1stst Decile compared to 2Decile compared to 2ndnd))
0.3850.66 - 2.711.34H-60
0.1970.77 - 3.001.51H-53
0.032*1.01 – 3.141.78H-46
0.6160.42 – 1.700.85UH1
0.1480.76 – 4.281.79AH1
P95% CIRR
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U.S Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality U.S Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality RatesRates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Airframe
Fata
litie
s/10
0K H
rs
1985-19941995-2005
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Fatality Rate by Decile Fatality Rate by Decile (1(1stst Decile compared to 2Decile compared to 2ndnd))
0.860.44 - 1.960.94H-60
0.00068*1.26 - 2.581.80H-53
0.029*1.02 – 2.071.46H-46
0.120.89 - 2.391.45UH1
0.0026*1.35 – 6.943.03AH1
P95% CIRR
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Injury Rate by Decile Injury Rate by Decile (1(1stst Decile compared to 2Decile compared to 2ndnd))
0.1100.39 - 1.120.67H-60
0.000*1.97 - 4.012.80H-53
0.000*3.37 – 6.734.76H-46
0.8250.65 – 1.420.96UH1
0.1980.73 – 3.691.63AH1
P95% CIRR
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Fatality Rates Embarked & Ashore
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EmbarkedEmbarked
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U.S. Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality Rate U.S. Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality Rate 1985 1985 --19941994
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Airframe
Fata
litie
s/10
0k H
rs
Ashore
At Sea
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U.S. Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality Rate U.S. Navy Helicopter Mishap Fatality Rate 19951995--20052005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Airframe
Fata
litie
s pe
r 100
k H
ours
Ashore
At Sea
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Fatality Rate, Fatality Rate, Embarked compared to AshoreEmbarked compared to Ashore
0.0000*2.72 - 12.035.68H-60
0.0000*2.53 - 5.553.76H-53
0.0000*6.64 – 13.759.55H-46
0.0000*2.19 – 5.813.58UH1
0.00004*1.90 – 10.904.62AH1
P95% CIRR
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The Risk at Night
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• Mishaps were compared for additive risk of night operations and no increased risk was identified with the exception of UH-1 operations in the first decile
• UH-1 first decile night operations showed 2.51 times the relative risk of day operations for a mishap 95% CI (1.1-5.71) p = .024
• Second decile UH-1 night operations had no increased risk
The Risk at Night
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The Risk by Phase of Flight, Mishap Cause & Brownout
USN Helicopter Fatalities & Injuries USN Helicopter Fatalities & Injuries by Phase Of Flightby Phase Of Flight
0 200 400 600 800
Cruise
T/O &G/A
Hover &Taxi
Landing
UninjuredInjuredFatal
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Mishap Causes 1985 Mishap Causes 1985 -- 19941994
Engine
Tail Rotor
Unknown
Fire/other
HF-Midair
HF-CFIT
HF-Other
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Mishap Causes 1995 Mishap Causes 1995 -- 20052005
Engine
Tail Rotor
Unknown
Fire/other
HF-Midair
HF-CFIT
HF-Other
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Brownout Rates (/100K Hours)Brownout Rates (/100K Hours)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
AH-1UH-1H-46H-53H-60
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Human Factor vs. Non-Human Factor Mishaps
Fatality Rates/100K HoursFatality Rates/100K Hoursby HF and Nonby HF and Non--HF By MDSHF By MDS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Non-HF
HF
FY 85 - 05
Class A Mishap Rates/100K HoursClass A Mishap Rates/100K Hoursby HF and Nonby HF and Non--HF By MDSHF By MDS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Non-HF
HF
FY 85 - 05
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Human Factors and Velocity
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Human Factors Numerator DataHuman Factors Numerator Data
14 (14)17 (3)4 (4)4 (3)9 (2)3 (2)7 (3)Total
1 (8)1 (2)0 (1)0 (1)0 (1)0 (1)0 (0)H-60
2 (1) 4 (0)1 (0)1 (0)4 (1)0 (0)1 (0)H-53
4 (1)10 (1)2 (2)1 (1) 3 (0)1 (0)2 (1) H-46
4 (3)2 (0)1 (1) 0 (1)1 (0)1 (1) 2 (0)UH1
3 (1)0 (0)0 (0)2 (0)1 (0)1 (0)2 (2)AH1
CFITRotorStrike
PowerLine
SpatialDisorientation
VMC-IMCBrownoutMidairAirframe
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USN Helicopter HF MishapsUSN Helicopter HF MishapsFatality Rate/100K Hours Fatality Rate/100K Hours -- Low Speed vs. High SpeedLow Speed vs. High Speed
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Low SpeedHigh Speed
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USN Helicopter NHF MishapsUSN Helicopter NHF MishapsFatality Rate/100K Hours Fatality Rate/100K Hours -- Low Speed vs. High SpeedLow Speed vs. High Speed
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
AH-1 UH-1 H-46 H-53 H-60
Low SpeedHigh Speed
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Conclusions & Recommendations
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DiscussionDiscussion• Embarked operations: potential for “softer” water impact with
less obstacles, but data shows statistically significant increased fatality rates than in operations ashore (Drowning)
• Hover and ground ops less fatal than cruise operations (matches USAF & Army Data) - Due to V2
• Newer airframes look safer than older• Statistically significant improvements in fatality and injury rates
occurred across the AH-1, H-46 & H-53 airframes in the second decile!
• Only the H-46 achieved a statistically significant reduction in mishap rate in the second decile: RR 0.56 – 95%CI (.33 - .96) p = 0.0325
• Unlike the USAF and Army data, in the second decile, night operations impose no statistically significant increase in mishap rates compared to day operations
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ConclusionsConclusions
• Rotary Wing operations have higher mishap rates than fixed-wing operations
• Embarked operations have higher Class A mishap and fatality rates than shore operations
• The cruise phase of flight has a higher mortality than other phases of flight (V2 Wins)
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ConclusionsConclusions• USN database lacks data to conduct detailed analysis
• Number of airframes in fleet (obtained from civil sources)
• Number of night, NVG, IMC hours flown (estimated from pilot records)
• Number of hours flown over land versus embarked (not recorded – could MFOQA get this data?)
• Weather conditions at time/location of mishap (weather often discussed only if factor)
• Database not standardized with other services
• HFACS may improve this situation
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RecommendationsRecommendations
• Track morbidity and mortality in addition to mishap rate information
• Improve and standardize mishap database to capture numerator and denominator data needed for analysis
• Establish a DoD center for analysis to standardize data collection throughout the Services and conduct analysis of systems used by more than one service