US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

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The US economy added 209,000 payroll jobs in July. The six-month gain of 14,000,000 was the best since the recovery began. Unemployment rose slightly to 6.2 percent on strong growth of the labor force

Transcript of US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Page 1: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Economics for your Classroom fromEd Dolan’s Econ Blog

US Job Market Turns in Best Six-Month Run Since

Recovery BeganAug 1, 2014

Terms of Use: These slides are provided under Creative Commons License Attribution—Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics, from BVT Publishing.

Page 2: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Best Six-Month Job Gain Since Recovery Began

The 209,000 jobs added to the US economy in July, together with upward revisions for May and June, brought the six-month job gain to 1,400,000

That made it the best six-month performance since the recovery began in mid-2009

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 3: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Month-by-Month Data

The 209,000 job gain in July was equal to the average for the past year

Job gains for May and June were revised upward by a total of 15,000

198,000 of the new jobs were in the private sector, with both goods and services sharing the gains

Government added 11,000 jobs, all at the local level. Federal jobs were unchanged and state governments lost 1,000 jobs

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 4: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Unemployment Rate Up Slightly on Growth in Labor Force

The US unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.2 percent in July, just above its low for the recovery. The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed persons to the labor force.

The labor force grew by a strong 329,000, adding to gains in earlier months. The number of employed workers increased by 131,000 and the number of unemployed by 197,000

The unemployment rate is based on a monthly survey of households that differs in several respects from the employer survey on which payroll job data is based

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 5: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Broad vs. Standard Unemployment Rate

The BLS also provides a broader measure of job-market stress, U-6

The numerator of U-6 includes Unemployed persons Marginally attached persons who

would like to work but are not looking because they think there are no jobs, or for personal reasons

Part-time workers who would prefer full-time work but can’t find it

The denominator includes the labor force plus the marginally attached

U-6 rose slightly to 12.2 percent in July, just above its low for the recovery

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 6: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Long-term Unemployment Remains Near Low for Recovery

The recession and slow recovery have been characterized by unusually high levels of long-term unemployment

The share of unemployed out of work for 27 weeks or rose slightly to to 32.9 percent in June, remaining close to its low for the recovery

The mean duration of unemployment fell in July but the median duration increased

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 7: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

Involuntary Part-Time Work Resumes its Downward Trend

The percentage of the labor force working part time for economic reasons (involuntary part-time work) decreased in July, resuming its general downward trend

Involuntary part-time work remains much higher than it was before the onset of the Great Recession

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 8: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

The Bottom Line: Prospects Look Good for Q3

The July job market report represents the first major data release for the third quarter of 2014

Coming on the heels of reported 4 percent GDP growth for Q2, prospects look good for continued growth in Q3

Aug 1, 2014 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Page 9: US Job Market Turns in Best 6-Month Run of Recovery

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