U.S. Job Futures

Brian K Toren

Html Version of report

3/8/12 1

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.htm

The following is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008

3/8/12 2

2008 data

Employment Demand 2008 -2018

Job Supply Increase - 15.3 million by 2018

Most Growth in service areas

Workers more racially and ethnically diverse

3/8/12 3

Worker Spread

55 and older 23.8%25 – 54 63.5%16- 24 12.7%

White 61.8%Hispanic 17.6%Black 12.1%Asian 5.6%All others 2.9%

3/8/12 4

Where do the workers come from ?

Employment change by detailed occupation

Size makes a difference; consider 10% growth vs growth in numbers

•Company Employees - 150 an absolute growth of 15 employees•Company Employees - 150,000 an absolute growth of 15,000 employees

Of the 20 fastest growing companies in the next 10 years health care accounts for 50 %. However, since cost are rising lower salaried people will be highly desired.

Assistants are doing the work formally done by doctors, nurses and dentist and Home Health Care, also lower paid

3/8/12 5

Industry Employment RequirementsService Industry will add 14.6 million jobs - 96%

Professional and Business 4.2 million

Health Care and Services 4.0 million

Goods producing 1.9 million

Care for Elderly 2.0 million

Mgt, Science/Tech consulting, computers sys des 2.1 million

All Others 0.4 million

3/8/12 6

Labor Force Table 1Table 2 – Employment by Major Indiustry Sector

Table 3 – 10 Largetst Growth Industries

Service occupations with the largest numerical growth

Medical – 4 million jobs

Services and Admin support including Gov .- 2.9 million jobs

All the rest – 1.9 million jobs

Total service jobs - 8.9 million jobs the largest growing Segment

Carpenters teachers truck drivers – 1.09 million

Total gain – 10 million

3/8/12 7

Numeric Change service industries 2008-2018

3/8/12 8

Occupational Employment

Two major occupational groups – professional and related occupations; and service occupations will account for more than 50% of employment growth.

Registered nurses 582 thousand jobsHome health aides 461 thousand jobsCustomers Service Reps 400 thousand jobs

3/8/12 9

Table 5 - Employment by major occupational groupTable 6 - 30 occupations with the largest employment growthTable 7 - 30 fastest-growing occupations

Job Losses

Of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, 12 are production occupations and 11 are office and

administrative support occupations.

3/8/12 10

2008 – 2011 GREAT Recession job loss8.5 million

Table 4 - 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines

Of 10 Industries: Department stores and Semiconducting have the largest employment declines

Table 8 - 30 occupations with the largest employment declines

The Winners Are!

1. Department Stores

2. Electronic Components

3. Motor Vehicle Parts

4. Postal Service

5. Printing and Related

Top Eight declining occupations

1. Farmers and Ranchers

2. Misc Ag Workers

3. Machinists

4. Laborers

5. Clerks

6. Mgrs and Supervisors

7. Product Sampling/Testing

8. Packers and Packagers

Top Five declining Industries

Education and Training

Occupations that usually require a postsecondary degree (two or four years) are expected to account for almost ½ of new jobs and 1/3 of total job openings.

The occupations having the most decline are the ones that use short-term on-the-job training for it’s employees

Of 51 million total new job openings that require training, 19.6 million of these will be in the short-term on-the-job training

3/8/12 12

Table 9 - Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education or training category

Employment change by education and training table

3/8/12 13

Short term on-the-job training

Of the total 50.9 million job openings during the 2008-18 period, 19.6 million of the jobs are expected to be in the short-term on-the-job training category.

Sixteen of the 30 detailed occupations with the most job openings will have short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and training.

3/8/12 14

Table 10. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and replacements, 2008-18

Where are the jobs going*

3/8/12 15

In the two years following the Wall Street Meltdown, U.S. corporations laid off 500,000 people in the U.S. and hired 729,000 people overseas.

When did this trend start?

It started in the Late 1970’s when Jack Welch (where is he now?) argued American Corporations owed their primary allegiance to the stockholders, not the employees.*“The Week,” 25 March 2011

Limited to Manufacturing?

3/8/12 16

Nope

Other areas affected:• Software Programmers • Software Design• Computer Design Engineers• Web Designers• Graphic Specialists• Seismologists• Lawyers• Financial Analysts• Local Newspaper Reporters• And more

Why?

3/8/12 17

• Salaries for a U.S. software engineer start at $75,000/year, in India they start at $15,000

Is It Working?

3/8/12 18

Ah-Yup

• Between 1995 and 2008 U.S. domestic product grew at an average of 2.9% while China grew at 9.6 % and India grew at 6.9%

• In 2009 47% of the Fortune 500 profits came from outside the U.S.

• 2010 3rd Quarter U.S. corporate profits hit an all time high while U.S. unemployment was at 9%

Where are we now (2011)?

Available new workers: 12.6 million plus 8.5 million people laid off since 2008:

Supply - Available Workers 21.1 Million

Jobs/month – 218,750/month

Demand - Available Jobs 15.3 Million

Jobs/month – 159,375/month

Short by 59,375/month

3/8/12 19

Fini

3/8/12 20

Another Disclaimer

3/8/12 21

Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected in-crease in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. Employment and labor force measures differ in concept. Employ-ment is a count of jobs, and persons who hold more than one job would be counted for each job. Labor force is a count of individuals, and a person is counted only once regardless of how many jobs he or she holds. In addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "Employment projections, 2008-18," Kristina Bartsch, November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.

Total job openings 50,930,000 by 201859

,430

,000

jobs

51,000 per month

3/8/12 22

Job Availability

3/8/12 23

Job Availabiltiy by 2018 in 1000s

Profession Replacement Growth Total Per MonthProff/Related 5000 6923 11923 192.3Service 4000 7718 11718 189.0Off/Admin Support 2000 5255 7255 117.0Sales/Related 900 4813 5713 92.1Mgt Bus/Fin 1800 3235 5035 81.2Trans/Mat Move 250 2607 2857 46.1Const/Extract 1000 1396 2396 38.6Production 0 2156 2156 34.8Instll/Maintain/Repare 200 1386 1586 25.6Farm/Fish/Forest 291   291 4.7Total 15441 35489 50930 821.5