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![Page 1: US Forests and Carbon Storage Michael G. Ryan USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station mgryan@fs.fed.us mryan GHG.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e905503460f94b94d64/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
US Forests and Carbon Storage Michael G. RyanUSDA Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Research [email protected]://lamar.colostate.edu/~mryan
GHG Modeling Workshop, Shepherdstown, WV 4/6 -4/9, 2009
Richard A. Birdsey, USDA FS, NRSChristian P. Giardina, USDA FS PSWStith T. Gower, University of WisconsinMark Harmon, Oregon State UniversityLinda Heath, USDA FS, NRSRichard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research CenterRobert Jackson, Duke UniversityDuncan Mckinley, AAASBrian Murray, Duke UniversityMark Nechodom, USDADiane Pataki, University of California, Irvine
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Synthesis of Science• Issues in Ecology – ESA synthesis for
policy and managers; Ecological Applications – Review paper
Questions• Can forests do more to slow CO2 increase? • Why are US forests a sink?• Will they remain that way? Will our
actions enhance it? For how long? • Can we measure it well enough to give it
value?
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From SOCCR Report: http://www.climatescience.gov
US forests and long-lived wood products offset about 12-20% of fossil-fuel emissions
North America Mt = (1012 g)
CCSP, 2007. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle.
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10% is Huge!• To get another 10%:• Convert entire US auto fleet to
hybrid gas mileage• Convert 1/3 current Ag land to
forests.
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Why the Uncertainty?
• SOCCR Report includes large estimates for carbon stored in soil (highly uncertain).
• Woodbury et al (2007) has a much lower rate for carbon stored in soil.
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Forest carbon has a cycle: after disturbance, loss and recovery
Photo by Mike Ryan
Photo by Dan Kashian
Photo by National Park Service
Photo by Mike Ryan
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Ecosystems that regenerate forests after disturbance (harvesting, fire,
bugs) will recover all of the carbon lost
Year since fire
0 50 100 150 200 250
Car
bon
(Mg
C/h
a)
0
50
100
150
Carbon inTreesCarbon in
Dead Wood
Total Carbon
Carbon in Soil
Fire
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The larger the landscape, the more stable the carbon seems
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 100 200 300 400
Time (years)
To
tal
C S
tore
s (M
g/h
a)
1 forest stand
10 forest stands
100 forest stands
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How Does Fire Change Forest Carbon?Fire kills trees, it doesn’t consume them; Fire losses of foliage and forest floor are only ~10-20% of the site carbon
Photo by Dan Kashian
Photo by AZ Dept Emergency Mgmt
Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 Prefire: Total = 16 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 Postfire: Total = 14 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
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Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 Prefire: Total = 16 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 100 years postfire: Total = 8 kg C m-2
Lost = 8 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
What happens with no regeneration?Example: Hayman Fire, Colorado, 2002
Photo by Merrill Kaufmann, USFS
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What about MPB Outbreak?Example: Colorado, 1998-?
Photo by Merrill Kaufmann, USFS
Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 Pre-Beetle: Total = 16 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
Car
bon
Sto
cks
(kg
m-2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10 Post-Beetle: Total = 16 kg C m-2
Soil ForestFloor
DeadWood
FoliageLiveWood
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Large temporary carbon source over a large area
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But, the ecosystem C recovers the carbon lost as the trees regrow
Estimated losses of carbon are ~16 x 1012 gC yr-1
Compared to 27 x 1012 gC yr-1 for fires for all of Canada average 1959-1999
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Forest Ecology – Bottom Line
• Disturbance does not cause C loss, unless forest does not regenerate
• Carbon is best evaluated over large scales of space and time
• The timing isn’t important
Photo by Mike Ryan
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Timing is important for economics and our descendents: YNP
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1989 2029 2069 2109 2149 2189 2229
Prefire NEP
Total Landscape NEP
Tot
al L
an
dsc
ape
NE
P (
g C
/m2 /
yr- )
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Cumulative C Storage
Cu
mu
lative
C S
tora
ge (g/m
2x 1
00
)Recovery of C storage f or Yellowstone Landscape
After 2020, the landscape will be a C sink
But it won’t regain the C lost in combustion andin decomposition of dead trees until ~ 2100
Kashian DM, WH Romme, DB Tinker, MG Turner, and MG Ryan. 2006. Carbon storage on coniferous landscapes with stand-replacing fires. BioScience 7:598-606. Copyright, American Institute of Biological Sciences.
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Can forests do more to slow the rate of CO2 increase in
the air’?
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Keep forests as forests: Avoid deforestation
• Urban/exurban development, conversion to ag use. Important for US, not just tropics
• Large potential, low risk, but difficult to credit
• No uncertainty about C value, Large uncertainty about US amount
• Benefits:– Many co-benefits.
• Adverse:– None
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Afforestation, especially in restoration
• Moderate potential, low risk• Benefits:
– Depends on how it is done!– Increased biodiversity and soil erosion
control
• Adverse:– More water use– Loss of ag production
• Uncertainties low when re-establishing forests
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Management: Decrease Outputs (Increase rotation, decrease
removals)• Large potential, but must be in areas
with active forest management, moderate risk
• Risks: increased risk of disturbance loss
• Benefits:– Increase structural and bio-diversity
• Adverse:– Lower economic return?– Alter species composition?
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Avoided deforestation: Highest potential, lowest risk
Potential decreases; Risk or uncertainty increases with other
options
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US Forest Carbon Balance 1800-1950: Forest Disturbance on a Massive Scale-the Industrial Revolution
-500
0
500
1000
1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Birdsey, R., K. Pregitzer, and A. Lucier. 2006. Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100. Journal of Environmental Quality 35:1461-1469.
In 1915, emissions from forests were 760 million tons C per year
Photo courtesy of University of Washington Libraries, Special Collections, KIN084.
?
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-500
0
500
1000
1700 1800 1900 2000
In 2000, sequestration by forests was ~200 million tons C per year
US Forest Carbon Balance 1950 to 2008: Forest Regrowth on a Massive
Scale
Birdsey, R., K. Pregitzer, and A. Lucier. 2006. Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100. Journal of Environmental Quality 35:1461-1469.
Photo by Mike Ryan
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Past and current land use change (forest regrowth, woody encroachment
Physiological response (CO2 or
nitrogen deposition
TimeTime
Consequences of Sink Saturation
If the Sink is a Result of:
Sink Strength of US Forests
Sink Strength of US Forests
Climate will warm as predicted
Climate will warm more rapidly than predicted
Canadell, J. G., D. E. Pataki, R. Gifford, R. A. Houghton, Y. Luo, M. R. Raupach, P. Smith, and W. Steffen. 2007. Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. Pages 59-78 in J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki, and L. F. Pitelka, editors. Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
We are here
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Largest Sources of Uncertainty
• Current Estimates:
– Changes in soil C and dead wood
– Land use changes
– Disturbance area
• Future Estimates
– Pace of disturbance, regeneration, recovery
– Sink saturation
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The Gorilla in the Room:Tropical Deforestation
• 1-2 Petagrams (1015 g)/year – about the same as US fossil fuel emissions
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Take Home• Forest Carbon is a cycle: Forests recover
what is lost in disturbance if they regenerate
• We have a large sink, but it may not last • From a forest ecology perspective:
– Keep forests– Restore forests– Encourage regeneration after disturbance
NRS Global Change
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• Ryan, Michael G. 2008. Forests and Carbon Storage. (June 04, 2008). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/carbon.shtml
• Effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources and biodiversity http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/final-report/default.htm
• State of the Carbon Cycle Report http://cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
• Carbon and Yellowstone Fires: http://lamar.colostate.edu/~mryan/Publications/Kashian_Romme_Tinker_Turner_Ryan_2006_Bioscience_56_598-606.pdf and http://lamar.colostate.edu/~mryan/Publications/Final_Report_JFSP_03-1-1-06.pdf
• US Greenhouse Gas Inventory: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
• Jackson, R.B., Schlesinger, W.H., 2004. Curbing the U.S. carbon deficit. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 101, 15827–15829.
• Jackson, R.B., Jobbagy, E.G., Avissar, R., Roy, S.B., Barrett, D.J., Cook, C.W., Farley, K.A., le Maitre, D.C., McCarl, B.A., Murray, B.C., 2005. Trading water for carbon with biological sequestration. Science 310, 1944-1947.
• Birdsey, R., Pregitzer, K., Lucier, A., 2006. Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100. Journal of Environmental Quality 35, 1461-1469.
Further Reading