U.S. Energy OutlookNew light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040 7 0 . 5 . 10 . 15 ....

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Outlook

For International Monetary Fund January 14, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040

2

• Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth

• Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade

• Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards

• The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s

• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040

Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports

3

U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

0

25

50

75

100

125

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption

Production

Net imports

9%

19% 10%

History Projections 2011 2035


Petroleum

4 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel

Projections History 2011

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Reference



U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019

6

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day


Tight oil

Alaska

Other lower 48 onshore

Lower 48 offshore



New light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

New LDV fuel efficiency miles per gallon


2011 Projections History

Summary of LDV standards

2012-2016: Increase to 34.1 mpg CAFE average in 2016 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)

2017-2025: Increase to 47.4 mpg CAFE average in 2025 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)


Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards

8

Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day


0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2012

AEO2013


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines

9

Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu


60% Motor gasoline

E85 Jet fuel

CNG/LNG 11%

13% 4%

29%

47%


2%

Pipeline fuel 3%

4%

Other 4%

Diesel 22%

1%


U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades

10

Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009

imports

exports

net exports

net product exporter


U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines

11

U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day


0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports 45%

37%


60%

2005


Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Global liquids supply million barrels per day



OPEC

Other non-OECD

OECD

44%

25%

31%

40%

26%

34%


Natural Gas


Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040

14

U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oil Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska

Non-associated onshore

Non-associated offshore



15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet


Projections History

Industrial*

Electric power

Commercial

Residential

Transportation**

33%

14%

6%

32%

12%

33%

19%

3%

31%

13%

*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.

Gas to liquids 2%

Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?

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U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu

Pipeline fuel

Light-duty vehicles

2011 History Projections

95%

3%

1%

1%

28%

38%

3%

31%

1% Buses

Freight trucks

Gas to liquids

Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release


Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020

17

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet



Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports


Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case

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U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Alaska LNG exports

Exports to Mexico

Exports to Canada

Lower 48 LNG exports


Coal and Electricity


Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040

20

U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projections

History 2011

Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2011 0.9 2012-2040 0.9


Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours

25%

19%

42%

13%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables


17%

16%

35%

30%

1%

1993

53%

13%

19% 11%

4%



Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases

22

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2005 2020 2035 0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2005 2020 2035 0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2005 2020 2035

U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

Natural gas

2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Natural gas Natural gas

Renewables

Renewables Nuclear

Nuclear Coal

Coal

2010

24%

10%

20%

45%

28%

15%

18%

38%

34%

22%

27%

16%

34%

23%

38%

4%


Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis

23

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price


0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History Projections

2011 2011 dollars per Btu

History Projections 2011

Competitive parity

Energy prices to the electric power sector

Coal

Natural gas


U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal

24

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million short tons



Consumption

Domestic Supply

Net imports


Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040

25

Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Wind

Solar

Geothermal Waste

Biomass

Industrial CHP

Power sector

Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible)



Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines

26

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1


History Projections 2011

Carbon dioxide emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP

Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP

Energy use per capita

2005


In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level

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Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Projections History 2011 2005

2005 2020 2040 (billion metric tons)

6.00 5.45 5.69

- - -9.0% -5.1%

(percent change from 2005)

AEO2013


For more information

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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

U.S. Energy OutlookNew light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040 7 0 . 5 . 10 . 15 ....

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