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U.S. Energy Information Administration _ Oil and Gas Sept 2014
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Transcript of U.S. Energy Information Administration _ Oil and Gas Sept 2014
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
North American Oil and Natural Gas Supply and Demand
ForNorth Dakota Petroleum CouncilSeptember 24, 2014 | Dickinson, ND
ByAdam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
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80
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120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency
2
U.S. primary energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
history projections2012
37%
18%
27%
8%
8%
1%nuclear
oil and other liquids
natural gas
coal
renewables (excluding liquid
biofuels)
34%
19%
28%
8%
9%
2%liquid biofuels
Shares of total U.S. energy
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
China’s use of liquid fuels exceeds the United States by 2035
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5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
liquid fuels consumption in China and the United States, Reference casemillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 3
projectionshistory 2010
United States
China
Challenges in understanding U.S. transportation fuel use
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and income indices
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
VMT per capita
personal disposable income per capita
mean household income
1995 = 1.0
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Changing pattern of U.S. electricity usepercent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014
5
electricity use
GDP
• Structural change in economy• Higher prices• Standards• Improved efficiency
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Delaware (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)HaynesvilleUtica (OH, PA & WV)MarcellusWoodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)
U.S. tight oil productionmillion barrels of oil per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Marcellus (PA & WV)
Haynesville (LA & TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Fayetteville (AR)
Barnett (TX)
Woodford (OK)
Bakken (ND)
Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)
Utica (OH, PA & WV)
Rest of US 'shale'
U.S. dry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per day
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through July 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
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4
6
8
10
12
14
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
High Oil and Gas Resourcecase
U.S. crude oil production approaches 13 million b/d by 2025 in the High Oil and Gas Resource case
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 7
U.S. crude oil production in three casesmillion barrels per day
2012history projections
Referencecase
U.S. historic maximum production level: 9.6 million barrels/day (1970)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case
STEO September 2014 U.S. crude oil projection
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crude oil production by state, January 2010 to June 2014million barrels per day
all other states
Texas
North Dakota
25%
49%
8
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
Texas and North Dakota now account for nearly half of all oil production in the United States
U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 2014
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 9
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
number of rail carloads per week
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads
million barrels per day
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014
Other Non-OPEC
Syria
Sudan / S. Sudan
Iraq
Nigeria
Libya
Iran
U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages
10
estimated unplanned crude oil production outagesmillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014*monthly production delta versus Jan. 2011 production level
Non-OPEC
OPEC
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
U.S. Production growth*
U.S. petroleum product net exportsmillion barrels per day
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and Short Term Energy Outlook
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 11
U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products
2015(e)
U.S. exports of petroleum products to Mexico and Canada have more than doubled and tripled, respectively, since 2004
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Canada
Mexico
U.S. petroleum products exportsthousand barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
Jan-Feb
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 13
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
North American net imports of oil and natural gas
North American net imports, 1965-2013million metric tons oil equivalent
net oil imports
net gas imports
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
API 50+API 40-50API 35-40API 27-35API below 27
U.S. crude oil production by typemillion barrels of oil per day
Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 14
forecasthistory
mixed hydrocarbon wells(gas, condensate, oil)
dry gas(exportable withorder/authorization)
crude oil / lease condensate (exportable under limited conditions)wet gas
EIA Refinery Survey
plant condensate
splitter complex distillation
stabilizer finished product streams
processed products for domestic use or exportable without license
finished petroleum products and other processed hydrocarbon liquids
separation via temperature gradients
water
separation via pressure changesfield / lease separator
flash drum heater treater
Distillation processes and resulting products
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 15
other processed gas liquids
fractionator separatorgas processing plant
processedcondensate
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day
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U.S. dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
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70
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90
100
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10
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20
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40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Associated with oilCoalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
AlaskaNon-associated offshore
Non-associated onshore
projectionshistory 2012
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
billion cubic feet per day
U.S. natural gas prices are expected to remain well below crude oil prices
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
energy spot prices2012 dollars per million Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
history projections2012
Henry Hub natural gas spot price
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
Brent crude oil spot price
oil to gas price ratio:
7.1
ratio:3.6
Onshore natural gas production continues to grow, outpacing declines in offshore and causing net imports to shrink
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2014
18North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
-2-1012345678
2012 2013 2014 2015-20-10
01020304050607080
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Importsbillion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)
Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)U.S. non-Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)U.S. net imports (right axis)Total marketed production (left axis)
annual change (Bcf/d)
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future
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U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
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0
10
20
30
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
projectionshistory 2012
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net exports
100
75
50
25
0
-25
billion cubic feet per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case
20North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
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-2
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6
8
2010 2015 2020 2025-4
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8
2010 2015 2020 2025
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference casetrillion cubic feet per year
exports to Mexico
exports to Canada
lower 48LNG exports
imports from Canada
LNG imports
High Oil and Gas Resource casetrillion cubic feet per year
billion cubic feet per day
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30%
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Jan-
05M
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5S
ep-0
5Ja
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May
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Sep
-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7S
ep-0
7Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9S
ep-0
9Ja
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May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1S
ep-1
1Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3S
ep-1
3
21
Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014
North Dakota natural gas productionthousand cubic feet per day
Though flaring is trending down somewhat, a large share of natural gas production does not go to market
marketed gas production
non-marketed gas production
percentage flared
share of flared natural gas
For more information
North Dakota Petroleum Council September 24, 2014 22
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/