U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014
-
Upload
jll -
Category
Economy & Finance
-
view
240 -
download
0
Transcript of U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
After an earlier pause, diversified
growth characterized gains in March
U.S. employment situation: March 2014 April 4, 2014
What were March’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
• The U.S. economy added 192,000
jobs in March, returning to above-
average gains and reversing a sharp
slowdown in activity.
• Unemployment remained unchanged
at 6.7 percent.
• 95.0 percent of jobs lost during the
recession have been regained; the
U.S. economy is just 0.3 percent
below previous peak employment.
• PBS’ record high of over 19.0 million
jobs has helped to push office using
employment far above its previous
peak.
• Growth at the subsector level was
diverse; no subsector received a
majority of gains. This was true for
both monthly and year-on-year
additions.
• Unemployment for high school and
college graduates dropped 10 basis
points even though the official
unemployment rate remained neutral.
• Tech is still a leader and is slowly
bouncing back from a moderate
slowdown in previous years.
• Unemployment insurance claims are
hovering in the low 300,000s and on
the verge of going below the 300,000
mark.
• Geographically, job growth is
spreading. While energy and tech
hubs still lead, the Sunbelt is picking
up slack, particularly in smaller
markets that have become focal
points for corporate expansion due to
low cost of business and labor as
well as tax incentives.
• T
• Total unemployment (including
disaffected workers) rose by 10
basis points to 12.7 percent even
as it approaches the 10-year
average.
• A slowdown in monthly PBS gains
combined with flat growth in
information and financial activities is
pushing down office-using
industries’ share of additions.
• Goods-producing growth is slowing
as service-providing sectors need
to pick up the slack.
• Labor force participation for both
high school grads and bachelor’s
degree holders is still at record
lows.
• Temporary help services growth
shows little sign of slowing.
Overview Bright spots Challenges
OVERVIEW
March’s 192,000-job increase represents the first
instance of above-average growth in 2014 22
0,00
0
121,
000
120,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
106,
000
122,
000
221,
000
183,
000
164,
000 19
6,00
0
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
0
84,0
00
144,
000
197,
000
192,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Oct
-10
Dec
-11
Feb
-11
Apr
-11
Jun-
11
Aug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
OVERVIEW
Revisions bring three-month employment growth to
533,000 jobs; unemployment unchanged at 6.7 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
OVERVIEW
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007
77 months into the cycle, total employment is now only
0.3 percent below prior peak levels
Rec
over
ed jo
bs (
%)
Past recessions (40 years)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pre-recession employment level
5
OVERVIEW
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
95.0 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 437,000 jobs below pre-recession peak
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
OVERVIEW
Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now
an emphasis on management, tech and design
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
OVERVIEW
-9.0
-1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
6.0
7.0
7.1
7.9
8.0
19.0
21.3
27.0
28.5
29.0
34.0
57.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Nondurable goods
Manufacturing
Motor vehicles and parts
Government
Financial activities
Information
Other services
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Temporary help services
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
A diversified recovery is apparent in March, with
growth not dominated by a single industry
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
OVERVIEW
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
62.5 percent of
monthly
growth.
-29.0
-19.0
-1.0
34.3
38.0
40.0
57.0
72.0
73.0
94.8
118.4
151.0
247.4
289.0
315.2
334.0
406.0
667.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Information
Government
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Mining and logging
Other services
Financial activities
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
Construction
Temporary help services
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
Year-on-year, core subsectors’ share of growth declined
by 19.9 percentage points as well
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Core subsectors added 64.1 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
OVERVIEW
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
After slowing somewhat, monthly private sector
additions are seeing new signs of life
Private sector hiring up 4.4
million since March 2012
Public sector shed 96,000 workers
since March 2012
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
BRIGHT SPOT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Similar to the national trend, educational attainment-
based unemployment remains stable
3.4%
6.3%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
BRIGHT SPOT
Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is
more volatile
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through Feburary 2014.
12
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
BRIGHT SPOT
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
BRIGHT SPOT
Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to
remain in the low 300,000s at recovery lows
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
BRIGHT SPOT
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
Consumer confidence is on the rise even though
unemployment has not declined noticeably in months
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
BRIGHT SPOT
Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see
fastest employment growth; spreading geographically
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Austin
4.2%
BRIGHT SPOT
Orlando
3.3%
Jacksonville
3.2%
Houston
3.1%
Raleigh-
Durham
3.2%
San
Francisco
3.2%
Silicon Valley
4.3%
Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampton
Roads
-0.5%
17
CHALLENGE
Westchester
County
0.3%
Philadelphia
0.4%
Cleveland
0.4%
New Jersey
0.3%
Pittsburgh
0.0%
Total unemployment fell by rose by 10bp and is
struggling to hit the 10-year average
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
CHALLENGE
A slowdown in growth combined with improvements
in other sectors impacting office-using’s share of gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
CHALLENGE
While service-providing employment has seen a sharp
rise, it its still only average; goods’ gains declining
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
CHALLENGE
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
58
59
60
61
62
63
College graduates
High school grads no college
Labor force participation still suppressed, although
rising 30bp for high school graduates
Col
lege
gra
duat
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
(%)
High school graduate participation (%
)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
CHALLENGE
Office-using job growth is slowing due to flat
information and financial activities employment
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In March 2014, it represented all 95.0 percent of new office jobs.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
CHALLENGE
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
Onl
ine
help
wan
ted
ads
Online help wanted ads
Unemployment rate
After an increase in February, online help wanted ads
fall even as unemployment remains stable
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
23
CHALLENGE
Temporary help services continue to rise at increasingly
faster monthly rates during 2014
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
CHALLENGE
Sector focus: mining and logging employment may be
small, but its growth certainly is not
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
25
SECTOR
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Min
ing
and
logg
ing
empl
oym
ent (
thou
sand
s)
Since 2010, mining and logging has added 231,000 jobs
+34.6% growth since 2010
Oil and gas extraction leads year-on-year job gains
4.1
13.9
5.4
Logging Oil and gas extraction
Support activities for mining
Employment in mining except for oil
and gas declined year-on-year
©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst
Or, find more employment, business and real
estate research at jll.com.
>>> Click here to check it out.