U.S. CIDER TRENDSciderchat.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Nielsen-Cider-Trends... · danny brager...
Transcript of U.S. CIDER TRENDSciderchat.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Nielsen-Cider-Trends... · danny brager...
Danny Brager
U.S. CIDER TRENDSINCREASING YOUR ODDS OF SUCCESS BY EVALUATING MARKETPLACE DYNAMICS
APRIL 5, 2017Matt Crompton
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USACM PARTNERSHIP WITH NIELSEN
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NIELSEN MEASURES WHAT PEOPLE WATCH AND BUY
“Watch” “Buy”
Retail Sales; Consumer/ShopperUniverse of locations
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WEBINAR CONTENT
• What do we (Nielsen/Nielsen CGA) measure? How?
• How is Beverage Alcohol performing?
• How is Cider performing? What is driving the growth of Cider?
• Who is the Cider consumer? What are they saying?
• How is Cider performing elsewhere?
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WHAT WE DO
• Gather/report POS retail sales to consumers (not shipments, or depletions)
• For your products, at the individual item level, as well as your competitors– Each item coded based on the ‘label’ characteristics - items can then be aggregated up -
to brands, product segments, etc
• Specific channels within both OFF PREMISE and ON PREMISE
• Weekly data for off-premise; 4-weekly data today for on-premise
• Historical dbase for trends (3-5 years depending on channel)
• Variety of measures depending on the channel• Sales (volume/dollars)• Price paid by consumer• Distribution, sales rate/velocity• Ads/displays/tpr’s for some off-premise channels
• And in a variety of other countries around the world
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CHANNELS WE MEASURE – RETAIL SALES
OFF PREMISE
• Food• Drug • Mass Merch (e.g. Target)• Walmart• Dollar (e.g. Dollar General, Family Dollar)• Select Club Stores (BJ’s, Sam’s)• Whole Foods (Q2 2017)
• Convenience• Military Exchanges• Liquor*
ON PREMISE
• Eating (Restaurants)
• Drinking (Bars)
Liquor market geographies (NYC, NJ, FL, MA, MD, CO, MN); PLUS approx. 16 Liquor chain retailers across the country
$
E-COMMERCE
(in development))
Total U.S. Eating vs Drinking
Chain vs Independent9 Census regions
6 major markets today
Ttl U.S. + multiple state/local market reporting
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OFF PREMISE: TOTAL U.S., STATE, LOCAL MARKETS
Los AngelesSan DiegoSan FranciscoSacramento
MiamiJacksonvilleOrlandoTampa
ClevelandCincinnatiColumbus
AlbanyBuffaloNY CityRochesterSyracuse
DallasHouston
DetroitGrand Rapids
MemphisNashville
CharlotteRaleigh
Channel reporting differs by state
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ON PREMISE: TOTAL U.S.; 9 CENSUS REGIONS; 6 MARKETS
Pacific
Mountain
West SouthCentral
West NorthCentral East North
Central
NewEngland
Mid-Atlantic
SouthAtlantic
East SouthCentral
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9Source: Nielsen Off Premise channels – thru 1-28-2017 Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise channels – 52 w/e 1-28-2017
Category Annual Percentage Growth
BEER
WINE
SPIRITS
Total CPG: FLAT
Off
Pre
mis
e $$
+2.1%
+4.1%
+4.7%
Volume
+0.2%
+1.5%
+2.4% On
Pre
mis
e
-0.8%
+1.6%
+3.2%
-2.0%
+0.9%
+1.4%
$$Volume
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On
Pre
mis
e
Off
Pre
mis
e
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016 Source: On Premise Eating and Drinking (52 w/e 1-28-2017)
Cider Annual Percentage Growth – Dollars
-9.9% +1.2%
($852MM at Retail)8.8MM Cases*
($468MM at Retail)12.6MM Cases*
*288 oz case
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PRODUCTS
Consumer
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BEV AL FRAGMENTATION AT A FURIOUS PACE
The top 25 brand profile – smaller and changing…
2010 Top 25 brands
# of top 25 2010 brands with lower
volume in 2016
2010 top 25 brands in
2016
2016’s Top 25 brands
Beer 79.0% 19 70.5% 72.5%
Wine 49.8% 17 44.1% 47.6%
Spirits 43.7% 14 37.6% 42.6%
Source: (2017 Advance Handbook)
Lower than 2010
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COMPANIES
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CIDERS ATTACHED TO LARGER BEER COMPANIES; SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO OVERALL CIDER SALES
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THE CRAFT/LOCAL CIDER SEGMENT CONTINUES TO GROW IN IMPORTANCE
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
Total Cider Cider Large Cider Craft/Local
Nielsen Off-Premise; Annual Dollar Sales
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
Represents a dollar increase of
+39% vs 2015
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CRAFT/LOCAL CIDERS BUSTED THROUGH THE 20% MARKET IN THE LATEST 13 WEEKS
7.8%11.0%
17.6%20.1%
2014 2015 2016 Lat 13 wks (thru 2-25-2017)
Cider Craft/Local ($ Share)
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
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CRAFT/LOCAL CIDERS CLEARLY BEST PENETRATED IN LIQUOR STORES; FOLLOWED BY FOOD STORES
17.6%
31.9%
20.7%
8.1% 6.7% 6.3%
Ttl OffPremise
Liquor Food C-store Club/Mass Drug
Cider Craft/Local ($ Share by Channel) - 2016
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
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LOCAL/CRAFT CIDERS RESONATE WITH CONSUMERS
32%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Strongly Agree Agree
I prefer to purchase from local cideries Lately, I’ve been purchasing more craft cider
Source: Nielsen, "Design Audit Series : Cider (US),” January 2017; n=323
65% 68%
31%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Strongly Agree Agree
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19Source: Nielsen Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
100
143160 158
205
Total Beer FMB Craft Beer Big BeerCider
Craft/LocalCider
Avg Price Index
compared to total Beer = 100
AND SELL AT A SIGNIFICANT PREMIUM PRICE
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CIDERS $ SIZE COMPARED TO BEER NATIONALLY
Source: Nielsen Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12/31/2016
22%
4.8%
2.0%
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CIDER 2% OR MORE AS LARGE AS BEER
3% or more
2-3%
Source: Nielsen 52 w/e 12-31/2016 - dollars
Wash DC
Orlando
Nashville
San Diego
San FranciscoSacramento
Nielsen Off Premise: Annual 2016 – All Outlets Combined; or Liquor only in some markets
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CIDER ~20% AS LARGE AS FMB’SNATIONALLY…BUT
Source: Nielsen 52 w/e 12-31/2016 - dollars
Wash DC
San Francisco
Nielsen Off Premise: Annual 2016 – All Outlets Combined; or Liquor only in some markets
Cider is bigger 90-100% as large 80-90% as large 70-80% as large
Portland Seattle Wash DC San Francisco
Denver Vermont
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23Source: Nielsen Grocery; 52 w/e 12-31/2016
Cider (total) growing Cider (ex #1 brand) growing >+1%
AlbanyMinnesota
OregonRichmond, VA
RochesterVermont
ColoradoCincinnati
IdahoMichiganSan Diego
VirginiaWashington
NIELSEN MEASURED MARKETS WHERE CIDER CATEGORY IS GROWING Off Premise: Annual 2016 – All Outlets Combined; or Liquor only in some markets
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IN-STORE SIGNAGE PROVIDES CONSUMER DIRECTION
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AND THESE REALLY GET ATTENTION
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CIDER FRUIT FLAVORS GROWING…CIDER FLAVORS(top 5 $ gains year on year)
Growing (+4%); 16%* of Total*excluding “assorted” and N/A
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
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CIDER OFF PREMISE SALES SEASONALITY GEARED AROUND HOLIDAY PERIODS
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Index to Cider Average Weekly $ Sales = 100
JANUARY DECEMBERJULYSource: Nielsen Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus + Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
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58%26%
16%
5-6% <5% >6%
ABV %
75%
25%
Bottle Can
Package Type
73%
17%
10%
12 oz 16 oz 22 oz
Bottle/CanSize
69%
16%
14%
1%
6 count 12 count 4 count OtherSource: Total U.S. All Outlets (xAOC + Liquor Plus +
Conv + Military); 52 w/e 12-31-2016
Excludes #1 BRAND
Pack Size
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CIDER CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY HIGHEST 21-44; CIDER GENDER GAP IS LESS THAN BEERAbout how often do you drink the following types of Alcohol?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Total 21-34 35-44 44-54 55-64 65+ Male Female
Summary of “at least several times a year”
Ciders Beer WineSource: Nielsen study conducted by the Harris Poll – January 24-26. 2017
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CORE CIDER CONSUMER IS 21-44; CAN WE INTEREST THOSE 45+? About how often do you drink Hard Cider? (percentages)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Total 21-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Several times a month or more often Once a month or several times a year
Once a year or less often Never
Source: Nielsen study conducted by the Harris Poll – January 24-26. 2017
Females much lower than Males
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KEY 21-44 CONSUMERS – ESP MALES - SAY THEY ARE DRINKING MORE CIDER THAN A COUPLE YEARS AGOAre you drinking more, less, or about the same amount of hard cider now as you did a couple of years ago? (percentages)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Total 21-34 35-44
More Less About the SameSource: Nielsen study conducted by the Harris Poll – January 24-26. 2017
Base (21+): Those who drink Hard Cider several times a year or more often
Males
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APPLE OF COURSE, BUT PEAR AND OTHER FRUIT FLAVORS RESONATE WITH 1/3 OF CONSUMERSWhich of the following flavors of hard cider do you prefer to drink? (percentages)
67
35 32
19 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apple (total) Apple (withoutadded spices)
Apple (withadded spices)
Pear (total) Other Fruitflavors
Source: Nielsen study conducted by the Harris Poll – January 24-26. 2017
Base (21+): Those who drink Hard Cider several times a year or more often
21-34
Midwest
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CONTINUAL EDUCATION –INCLUSIVE OF VERSATILITY OF CIDERS - ARE KEYWhich best describes why you do not drink hard cider? - select all (percentages)
40
19
129 8 8
don't like thetaste
don't knowenough about
it
too muchsugar
too sweet expensive too manycalories
Source: Nielsen study conducted by the Harris Poll – January 24-26. 2017
Base (21+): Those who never drink hard cider or drink once a year or less often
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BEER SELLING LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO GROW –TRANSLATES TO MORE CIDER OPPORTUNITIES!
229.2
364.7
239.5
382.6
Off Premise On Premise
Total U.S. - # of Beer Selling Locations (000) 2012 2016
Source: Nielsen TDLinx
Limited Assortment/Dollar StoresNatural/Gourmet stores
Sports Bars/Premium BarsTheatersFast Casual Dining segment
Fastest Growing
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BLURRING OF PREMISES
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WE LIVE IN A BRICKS PLUS CLICKS WORLD
Brick n Mortar retailers
TODAY’S CONSUMERS ARE OMNISHOPPERS
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Online Grocery Shopping
20%
Retail Grocery Shopping
80%
FUTURE OF ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING
Source: FMI and Nielsen – Digitally Engaged Food Shopper Study (2017)
By 2025, the share of online grocery spending could reach 20%,
representing $100 Billion in annual consumer sales
Nielsen CGA On Premise Services
Cider Trends in US Webinar
Copyright ©2017 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary.
The structure of the on premise universe
Source: Nielsen TDLinx (December 2016)
No. of restaurants, bars & nightclubs: December 2016 vs YA
Drinking83,190 -0.3%
298,835 +0.4%
Eating215,645 +0.7%
Casual Dining208,680 +0.6%
Fine Dining6,169 +3.1%
Neighborhood Bar
58,678 -0.9%
Sports Bar9,501 +4.3 %
Casual Nightclub7,249 -5.9%
Premium Bar2,571 +23.9%
Key points and long-term trends• Casual dining outlets drive openings while neighborhood bars decline• Drinking segment propped up by increases in sports/premium bars• 85% of bars, nightclubs and restaurants are independently owned• Between 2004 and 2014 we lost 1 in 6 Neighborhood Bars• Over the same period the number of restaurants increased by 40%
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Copyright ©2016 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary. Source: Nielsen CGA on premise data – megacategory, volume, value, 9L EQ, rolling 52 w/e 01/28/2017 vs YA
Spirits steal share from Beer & WineSpirits sales in bars and restaurants have been growing steadily over the last 52 weeks at the expense of Beer whilst wine is recovering steadily
Beer/FMB/Cider Wine Spirits
-2.0%
+3.2%
Volume % chg vs YA
$ % chg vs YA
-0.8%
+1.4%
40
+1.6%
+0.9%
Copyright ©2016 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary.
Cider grows $ by +1.2% on the year
Source: Nielsen CGA on premise data – volume, value, subsegment, 288oz EQ, w/e 01/28/2017 vs YA
Volume (288oz EQ), rolling 52 w/e 01/28/17 vs YA, Total US
+4.5%
Domestic Premium
Craft Import Domestic Super
Premium
CiderBelow Premium
+0.9%-6.5% -7.1%-0.8%-5.9%288oz
-6.2% +2.4% +5.4% +9.3% -5.1% +1.2%$
FMB
+8.5%-6.2%
18.4%29.3%38.2% 0.31.8%3.2%3.6%▼ 1.8 ▲0.8 ▲1.1 ▲0.3 ▼ 0.1 - 0.0+ 0.0
Volume Share
41
Without the top three brands volume growth
is up
Source: Nielsen CGA on premise data – volume, 288oz EQ, rolling 52 w/e 01/28/2017 CYA
+7.7%vs YA, increasing in
+330k 288oz
The *top 3 cider brands account for
46%Of Total Cider share
*Top 3 in terms of largest TDP
Draft Cider is driving the growth, with volume levels over double that of Packaged
Source: Nielsen CGA OPM – Volume (288oz), rolling 52 w/e 01/28/17 CYA
Draft Packaged
2.4m 288oz6.2m 288oz
+3.9% -11.2%
-302.7k CYA+230.7k CYA
Copyright ©2016 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary.
Though Cider has a small share of tap handles, it has increased it’s share of draft volume by +0.2pp vs YA
Source: Nielsen CGA In Outlet Audit Data (2016); Nielsen CGA OPM – volume, L52 wks, w/e 12/03/16
Share of tap handles vs share of draft volume sales:
Share of tap handlesShare of draft volume
sa les
58% 42%Craft
21% 15%Import
17% 33%Domestic Premium
7% 11%Other
(inc. Cider)
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Copyright ©2017 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary. Source: Nielsen CGA OPM – volume, TDP, rolling 52 w/e 01/28/2017 vs YA
Chicago and New York markets are driving Total Cider growthVolume (288oz EQ), rolling 52 w/e 01/28/17 vs YA, Total US
Drinking
3.2m 288oz EQ
Vol % Chg: -0.3%
Share of Cider: 37.7%
TDP:
+3.9%
Independent
7.3m 288oz EQ
Vol % Chg: -0.6%
Share of Cider: 85.2%
TDP:
+3.3%
Chicago
452.7k 288oz EQ
Vol % Chg: +3.4%
Share of Cider: 5.3%
TDP:
+8.5%
New York
481.8k 288oz EQ
Vol % Chg: +1.5%
Share of Cider: 5.6%
TDP:
+1.7%
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Source: Nielsen CGA OPM – volume, TDP, rolling 52 w/e 01/28/2017 vs YA
Distribution is driving Cider growth, leading to penetration of the total market
+3.2%
TDP % Change vs YA
Total US
+8.5%
Chicago
+1.8%
Dallas
+2.6%
Denver
-4.5%
Los Angeles
+1.7%
New York
+3.5%
Boston
Distribution % Change vs YA
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How is the typical Cider consumer different to the typical Beer consumer?
Copyright ©2017 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary.
Over 2/3 of Cider consumers drink out weekly - the Drinking segment is propelling Cider’s growth in the market, this driven by millennials
Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise Consumer Survey – sample sizes: 2397, 7174
67% 53%
Proportion drinking out weekly
83% 75%
Proportion eating out weekly
$85k $77k
Age range
Average household income
42% 37%
58% 63%
GenderHard Cider Beer
Hard Cider drinker vs average beer
drinker
54% 39%8%
37% 38% 25%
21-34 35-54 55+
Hard Cider Beer drinker
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Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise Consumer Survey (October-November, 2016) – sample size: 2381, 7119
4.1Cider drinkers
Cider drinkers are more fickle than beer drinkers, trying more new brands each year than the average beer drinker
Average number of new drinks brands tried in the last year
3.3Beer drinkers
Q: How many, if any, new drinks brands have you tried in the last year?
49
Copyright ©2016 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary. Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise Consumer Survey (October-November, 2016) – sample size: 15191, 7125, 2380
Cider drinkers are more experimental than beer drinkers, who are more inclined to stick with what they know
I am open to trying different drinks brands
I actively seek out new drinks brands
I am loyal to my favorite drinks brands, but could be persuaded to try a different brand
I am loyal to my favorite drinks brands, and it would be hard to change my mind
I am unlikely to try new or different drinks brands
US average Cider
40%
15%
24%
10%
11%
43%
38%
14%
2%
2%
46%
23%
20%
6%
5%
Beer% agreeing with statement
50
Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise Consumer Survey (October-November, 2016) – sample size: 2641, 588 - 1033
Cider is not limited to the Beer on premise market- cider flavored cocktails are more popular than beer flavored cocktails across all ages
17%of cocktail drinkers drink Cider flavored
cocktails
Q: How many, if any, new drinks brands have you tried in the last year?
Millennials (21-34)
Generation X (35-54)
Baby Boomers (55+)
22%
17%
5%
20%
14%
2%
Cider flavored cocktails
Beer flavored cocktails
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How is Cider performing elsewhere?
Source: Nielsen CGA On Premise Consumer Survey (October-November, 2016) – sample size: 13074, 12816
18%
% of consumers drinking Cider out-of-home
28%
The GB Cider market is better established than the US Cider market, with +10pp GB consumers drinking it than US consumers
vs
As in US, it is draft cider that is seeing exponential growth, with flavored ciders driving this in the L52 weeks
Source: Source: CGA Strategy OPMS P11 Data to: 05/11/2016
Total CiderVol: +1.9%Val: +2.5%
Draft CiderVol: +4.3%
Vol Share: 68.0% (+1.5pp)
Val: +5.0%
Packaged CiderVol: -5.0%
: (Vol Share: 32.0% -1.5pp
Val: -1.3%
Vol: +137.0%Share: 16.3%
(+9.1%)
Val: +132.2%
Vol: +7.9%Share: 65.3%
(+6.5pp)
Val: +9.7%
Flavored Cider Flavored Cider
Copyright ©2017 Nielsen CGA. Confidential and proprietary.
Key findings (On Premise)• Unlike Beer, Cider is growing – propelled by …the “long” tail – without the more widely distributed brands, cider growth is
+13.6% Eq volume vs YAIndependent segment, and Drinking channelMajor urban areasDistribution gains
• Cider drinkers are young and versatile, and very open to new drinks brands
• Cider drinkers’ expectations are growing, and overlap with those of Craft beer drinkers
• Cider should not be boxed in within the Beer/FMB/Cider mega-category
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WHAT YOU SHOULD TAKE AWAY Cider category upside is strong with craft/local driving
growth; opportunities both off and on premise
Innovation/education/visibility/trial are keys
Always listen to your core consumer; beyond that, you have very little voice today with 45+
Are you prepared for online opportunities
Facts can be your friend• Support and sharpen your message!• Discuss the facts with your retailers/distributors/others• Assess/quantify opportunities!• Tell – no SHOUT - your story!
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OUR ONLY ASK …. AND NO STRINGS ATTACHED HELP US REPORT YOUR PRODUCT SALES ACCURATELY...• Nielsen information is used/referenced widely –
retailers, distributors, investment firms, media, industry associations, etc -
• We strive for report accuracy and completeness
• Inclusive of your products’ sales in our reporting when it passes a store scanner
• We identify/gather a lot of that ourselves, but you can help us tell your story even better!
• All we need - your products’ labels (back and front; digital or actual copies)
• Send to [email protected]@nielsen.com; [email protected]
Danny BragerSVP, Nielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice
Matt CromptonAssociate Client Director: Nielsen [email protected]