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![Page 1: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
U.S. and World Cotton U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
National Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting
Nashville, TNNashville, TNAugust 20-22, 2003August 20-22, 2003
Prepared by:Prepared by:
Economic ServicesEconomic ServicesNational Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council
U.S. and World Cotton U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
National Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting
Nashville, TNNashville, TNAugust 20-22, 2003August 20-22, 2003
Prepared by:Prepared by:
Economic ServicesEconomic ServicesNational Cotton CouncilNational Cotton Council
![Page 2: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
U.S. Real GDP GrowthU.S. Real GDP Growth
![Page 3: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
Civilian Unemployment RateCivilian Unemployment Rate
![Page 4: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Consumer Price Index, ApparelConsumer Price Index, Apparel
![Page 5: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
U.S. Cotton Planted AreaU.S. Cotton Planted Area
![Page 6: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
![Page 7: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Beg. Stocks Imports
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Beg. Stocks Imports
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
![Page 8: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
U.S. Retail Cotton ConsumptionU.S. Retail Cotton Consumption
![Page 9: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-00 Avg200120022003
Net Imports of Cotton TextilesNet Imports of Cotton Textiles
![Page 10: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
U.S. Cotton Mill UseU.S. Cotton Mill UseMillion Bales
![Page 11: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Use
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p
Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & UseForeign Cotton Production & Use
![Page 12: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 93 95 97 99 01 03p
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 93 95 97 99 01 03p
U.S. Cotton ExportsU.S. Cotton Exports
![Page 13: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
World Cotton Ending StocksWorld Cotton Ending StocksMillion Bales
05
10
1520253035
404550
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
ROW U.S. China
Million Bales
05
10
1520253035
404550
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
ROW U.S. China
![Page 14: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Cents per Lb.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct
-00
No
v-00
Dec
-00
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jun
-01
Jul-
01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Dec
-01
Jan
-02
Feb
-02
Ap
r-02
May
-02
Jul-
02
Au
g-0
2
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Dec
-02
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
Jun
-03
Jul-
03
US Spot A USNE
Cents per Lb.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct
-00
No
v-00
Dec
-00
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jun
-01
Jul-
01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Dec
-01
Jan
-02
Feb
-02
Ap
r-02
May
-02
Jul-
02
Au
g-0
2
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Dec
-02
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
Jun
-03
Jul-
03
US Spot A USNE
““A” Index, Spot 4134 and USNEA” Index, Spot 4134 and USNE
![Page 15: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 370
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 370
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China)
![Page 16: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China) vs “A” Indexvs “A” Index
![Page 17: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
38 37 33 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 50 41 37
6358
71
91
86
79
59
5357
42
56
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Percent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Cents/Lb
Stocks/Use "A" Index
Cotton Stocks/Use Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)(World less China) vs “A” Indexvs “A” Index
![Page 18: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g
Oct
No
v
Feb Ap
r
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 02 Dec 03
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g
Oct
No
v
Feb Ap
r
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 02 Dec 03
December Cotton FuturesDecember Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
![Page 19: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Cents per Pound
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g-9
8
Dec
-98
Ap
r-99
Au
g-9
9
Dec
-99
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0
Dec
-00
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1
Dec
-01
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-03
Nearby Futures
Farm Price
Cents per Pound
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Au
g-9
8
Dec
-98
Ap
r-99
Au
g-9
9
Dec
-99
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0
Dec
-00
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1
Dec
-01
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-03
Nearby Futures
Farm Price
Cotton Farm Price vs. NY FuturesCotton Farm Price vs. NY Futures
![Page 20: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
SummarySummary
• USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production– Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down
stocksstocks
• Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use
• By historical measures, balance sheet By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsfactors
• USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production– Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down
stocksstocks
• Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use
• By historical measures, balance sheet By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsfactors
![Page 21: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f135503460f94c28078/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CrushersCrushers
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers