U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food...
Transcript of U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food...
![Page 1: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
November 9, 2012
U.S. Ag Exports – China Focus
15th Annual Farmer Cooperatives Conference
![Page 2: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Global Demand for Food
• China Ag Situation
• U.S. Ag Exports to China
• Key Issues
• Outlook
The Economist
![Page 3: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Global Population Density
![Page 4: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Bottom Line:
Source: “Food Economics and Consumer Choice”, Jeff Simmons www.plentytothinkabout.org
![Page 5: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Source: UN/FAO, deflated prices
What are these
markets telling us?
![Page 6: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The world’s
poor bear
the brunt of
global food
inflation
Source: USDA, Euromonitor, *% of spending on food consumed at home
1 in 6
are
hungry
today UN/FAO
![Page 7: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
When Will Food Shortages Begin?
• They already have; an estimated 1 billion are considered “food insecure” today.
• 13,600 children perish every day due to malnourishment
This is unacceptable.
![Page 8: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
CHINA AG SITUATION
![Page 9: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
![Page 10: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Source: Weekly average of Chinese regional markets, USDA
![Page 11: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
CHINA PORK PRICES
With per-capita income doubling
every 6 years (over the past 18 years),
consumers can effectively pay twice
as much for pork every 6 years
without affecting their income…
![Page 12: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 13: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 14: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Source: USDA/ERS
![Page 15: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
U.S. AGRICULTURE EXPORTS TO CHINA
![Page 16: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 17: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 18: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Source: USDA/ERS
China/HK bought 7% of U.S.
pork production in Nov. 2011
![Page 19: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
KEY ISSUES
19
![Page 20: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Key China Ag Issues
Internal: • Acreage constraints, technology, self-sufficiency • Inflation – the “right” level • Regulation – food safety • Food safety scandals are building the brand of
“Imported Food” External: • WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US
poultry) • SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary) Issues
– beta-agonist use in meat – genetically modified crops
![Page 21: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
An Inconsistent Triad
China’s Food
Self-
Sufficiency
China’s Food
Inflation (above
world prices)
Unfettered
Access for Ag
Imports
Pick any two, but only two…
![Page 22: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
China Ag Outlook
• China is losing grip on food self-sufficiency and will allow some import growth
• Rising incomes will continue shift diets; China will need more corn, pork, oilseeds, and dairy
• Economic growth will slow, yet likely remain around 7% in 2012; that rate will double incomes in 10 years. Where will our commodity prices be then?
![Page 23: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
We are living in extraordinary times!
What does this tell us about agriculture the past 100 years?
What about the next 100 years?
Source: US Department of Commerce, plus other published estimates
![Page 24: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Cooperatives Perspectives
• Cooperatives have growing opportunities overseas due to the diverse demand for a wide variety of ag products
– Niche markets are growing around the globe
– Production / safety / consumer attributes are seeing rising demand globally
• Overseas companies often seek company-partnership-suppliers (possibly from U.S. companies)
![Page 25: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Denver, Colorado
25
Services Offered:
• Global market research
• Specific market reports
• Email alert service
• Monthly newsletter
• Webinars / presentations
Brett Stuart, Founding Partner [email protected]
303-803-8716
![Page 26: U.S. Ag Exports China Focus · •Food safety scandals are building the brand of Imported Food External: •WTO Cases (dumping/countervailing on US poultry) •SPS (Sanitary/Phyto-Sanitary)](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042416/5f30fc7e57c0794d865b3e03/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Other reports:
• Japan • China/HK • S. Korea • Australia • Mexico • Russia • Denmark
and Canada (exports)