U.S. 70 Corridor Commission
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Transcript of U.S. 70 Corridor Commission
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
presented byCambridge Systematics, Inc.
U.S. 70 Corridor Commission
June 19, 2014
Paula Dowell, PhD
Rocky Lane
U.S. 70 Corridor Economic Impact Assessment
Input into Analysis
InterviewsCountiesMunicipalitiesUtilities Regional Economic Development Organizations
Focus Groups
Data Research
Importance and Current Conditions of US 70
Varies widely from West to East
Critically Important for Communities Along 70
Rated 5 on a 1-5 Scale with 5 being the highest
Description “Our Main Street” “The Main East-West Artery” “The Only Way In or Out “We Live and Die by What Happens on 70”
All major employers located within two (2)
miles
Lenoir County~DuPont – 70 Trucks/Day going to I-95~500 Trucks/Day in/out of the main Industrial Park~Thousands of Jobs within ¼ mile of the US 70
Centerline-Kinston
A factor in most plant expansion decision
Completion of the Bypass system improves competitive position
Raw materials in/Finished goods out Expansion of labor pool
Economic Development Implications
Lost Projects in the Region
Existing Company Expansions
Big Rock Sports~ US 70 Conditions – not the key, but a contributing
factor~ Lost 160 Jobs – 80 remain
New LocationsBoeing-Access to I-95Gatorade-Access to I-95Boat Builder
Implications for Port and Global TransPark
Completion from I-95 to Port rated “High”Benefits to Port and Counties~Improve Quality of Port Projects~Open sites for Port Users
Connectivity to I-95 - “Very Important”
Global TransParkEnhances GTP’s prospectsPotentially opens sites and parks in other Corridor countiesNecessary but not sufficient
Military
Importance Rated at 4 Out of 5
Connectivity to I-95 – “Very Important”Primary corridor for delivery of mission critical elements - aircraft fuel & parts
Primary corridor for personnel going to the Washington, DC area
US 70 is not critical to fulfillment of missionDeployment – Non-Issue
BRAC – Non-Issue
Key Issues – Logistics & commuting related
Summary
Economic Profile - solid and healthy
Facing Challenges - Not all could be solved with completion of Bypass system
Improvements benefit all sectors of economic development
Improvements benefit not only the corridor but all of North Carolina
Methodology
Based on NCDOT forecasts
Individual bypass studies
Stakeholder input
Key Assumptions
Traffic projections completed at bypass level and not corridor level
Growth adjusted based on planned development, e.g., 6,000 jobs at GTP in 2040
Change in Travel Times
Route Distance (miles)
Current Travel Times
(minutes)
2040 No Build (minutes)
2040 Build
(minutes)
Travel Time Savings in
2040
Global TransPark to Raleigh 81.5 91 126 70 56
Global TransPark to Port of Morehead 76.3 88 86 65 21
Global TransPark to I-95 54 60 65 50 15
Port of Morehead to Raleigh 147 152 198 130 68
Port of Morehead to I-95 116 122 155 110 45
Source: Google Maps and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. calculations using travel skims from the NS Statewide model. Build scenario speed limit is assumed as 70 mph.
Productivity
Market access
Business costs
GDP
Employment
Income
Impact Categories
Business Competitiveness
EconomicImpacts
Travel time
Vehicle operating costs
Safety cost
Reliability
Traffic volumes
Direct User Impacts
Economic Impact of Not Completing US 70 2014 - 2040
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Metric Incremental
Change %
U.S. 70 Counties
Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012) $0.35
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) ($0.80) (0.16)
Personal Income ($billions 2012) ($0.61) (0.11)
Jobs (average annual full-time) (350) (0.15)
North Carolina
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) ($1.08) 0.20
Personal Income ($billions 2012) ($0.89) 0.17
Jobs (average annual full-time) (450) 0.18
Metric Incremental Change %
U.S. 70 Counties
Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012) ($0.56)
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) $1.21 0.19
Personal Income ($billions 2012) $0.91 0.18
Jobs (average annual full-time) 550 0.19
North Carolina
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) $1.41
Personal Income ($billions 2012) $1.04
Jobs (average annual full-time) 600
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Economic Impact of Completing US 70 2014 - 2040
Market Access Analysis and Induced Economic Development
Economic development assessment
Stakeholder input
Site analysis
Gap analysis
I-40 Corridor
US 64 Corridor
Gap Analysis
Compare growth rate by industry along corridor
Identify area where corridor is over and under performing
Examine role of transportation
Estimate impact of enhancing transportation on closing any gaps
Growth ComparisonTable Error! No text of specified style in document..6 Comparison of Employment
Growth Along Key Corridors in Eastern North Carolina
Corridor Comparison U.S.70 Corridor I-40 Corridor U.S.64/264 Corridor
Employment Growth
Average Annual Growth
Rate
Change in Employment
Concentration
Average Annual Growth
Rate
Change in Employment
Concentration
Average Annual Growth
Rate
Change in Employment
Concentration 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012
Average -0.05% 5% 0.45% 24% 0.87% 126% Source: North Carolina LEAD (Labor & Economic Analysis Division) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce, QECW data from http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/QCEWSelection.aspx
Employment Impact of Closing the Gap
I-40 Growth
Rate
U.S. 64/264Growth Rate
Average Annual Additional Jobs along U.S. 70
600 1,350
Summary Findings
Source of Impacts
Total ImpactsMetric Build
U.S. 70 Corridor
Business Transportation Costs ($ Billions)
($.056)
Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $2.55 - $3.80
Personal Income($ Billions) $1.90 - $2.85
Jobs (average annual full-time) 1,150 – 1,900
Rest of North Carolina
Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $1.40
Personal Income($ Billions) $1.05
Jobs (average annual full-time) 600Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Key Takeaways
No build results in slower economic growth
340 fewer jobs per year and $800 million less in GRP between 2014 and 2040
Completing US 70 results in $56 million in business cost savings for existing users, $1.2 billion in GRP between 2014 – 2040
Increasing efficiency, accessibility and connectivity translates into 1,150 to 1,900 additional jobs per year along U.S. 70
In total, the upgrading the entire U.S. 70 corridor could give rise to an additional 1,150 to 1,900 jobs along the corridor and up to 2,500 jobs per year statewide