Urban Growth in China:Challenges and Prospects

Karen C. SetoDepartment of Geological and Environmental Sciences

andFreeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Stanford University

Urbanization in a global contextUrbanization in a global context

• >50% of world population

• 30% urban in 1950, estimated 60% urban in 2030

• 19 megacities > 10 million

• 22 cities with 5 with 10 million

• 370 cities with 1 to 5 million

• 440 cities with 0.5 to 1 million

• Highest growth rates in medium-sized cities (1-5 million)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Africa Asia Centra America Europe North America South America

Perc

ent 1970

20002025

Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population

Source: United Nations, 2004. World Population Prospects

Forecasted Megacities, 2015

Sources: Kraas, Univ. of Cologne and United Nations, 2004

Crisis or Opportunity?Crisis or Opportunity?

• Driving forces in economic growth• Efficient use of infrastructure• Delivery of health services• Sanitation• Education• “Saving land for nature”• Efficient natural resource use• Creative social capital

• Environmental degradation• Loss of agricultural land• Pressure on natural resources (energy, water, land) • Inadequate housing• Consumption patterns• Urban sprawl• Social alienation

Cities as solutionsCities as problems

Urbanization trends in ChinaUrbanization trends in China

• One quarter of world’s 500 largest urban areas in China

• 2050: China’s urban population increase by 300-700 mil.

• 2002 urbanization rate: 36%

• 2050 urbanization rate: 70%

• US (2000): 77%

• Japan (2000): 79%

• Germany (2000): 88%

Comparative Urbanization TrendsComparative Urbanization Trends

51159200,000-500,000

1644500,000-1 mill

934> 1 million

03> 10 million

USChinaPopulation, 2000

Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census

Comparative Urbanization TrendsComparative Urbanization Trends

Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census

2000 EMR 2000 EMR Shanghai 10,840,000 18,420,000 New York 8,008,000 22,000,000Beijing 12,780,000 15,200,000 Los Angeles 3,694,000 18,080,000Tianjin 5,096,000 9,848,000 Chicago 2,896,000 9,312,000Wuhan 4,488,000 7,182,000 Houston 1,954,000 4,407,000Guangzhou 4,154,000 10,156,000 Philadelphia 1,517,000 5,952,000Shenyang 3,981,000 6,730,000 Phoenix 1,321,000 3,072,000Chongqing 3,934,000 7,577,000 San Diego 1,223,000 2,780,000Nanjing 2,822,000 6,238,000 Dallas 1,188,000 4,802,000Harbin 2,672,000 9,630,000 San Antonio 1,144,000 1,538,000Xian 2,589,000 5,860,000 Detroit 951,000 5,467,000Chengdu 2,341,000 9,901,000 San Jose 911,000 6,816,000

Policy Reforms and Urban Growth in China

• Rural-urban migration

• Rapid urban growth

• Agricultural expansion & intensification

• GDP, 1978-2002: 8-14%

• Increase in income- vehicles- housing- changes in diet

• Began in 1978

• Decentralization

• Open-door, FDI

• Agricultural reforms

• Land-use rights

• Household registrationsystem (hukou)

• Work unit (danwei)

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

UrbanRural

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

China’s Urban and Rural Population, 1950-2030

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f GD

P

ServicesIndustryAgriculture

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

Structure of China’s Economy, 1970-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f Em

ploy

men

t

ServicesIndustryAgriculture

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

Structure of China’s Labor Force, 1970-2000

LandLand--use trends in Chinause trends in China

-0.19 -380.2200,121.7200,501.9Unused land

24.78823.24145.43322.2Urban

-1.12-3,436.80302,919.5306,356.3Grassland

-0.52-718.9137595.5138314.4Forests

2.782850.6105494102,643.4Dryland

0.40 141.3035,650.235,508.9Paddy2.17 2,991.90141,144.2138,152.3Cropland

% ChangeChange(1000 ha)

20001990Land use

Source: Hanqin Tian, Auburn University, unpublished data

Chengdu

• 1980s: Focus on coastal areas “Open” cities, Special Economic Zones

• 1990s: Attention shifts inland, “Go West” program

Pearl River Delta

Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province?

• 1988 - 2005 real GDP growth: 8-18%

• Major agricultural region and national leader in production of:

- lychees, bananas, pond fish, sugar cane

• Special Economic Zones

• Geographic proximity to Hong Kong

• Cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors

Urban Land, Pearl River Delta (km2)

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1973

1974

1980

1985

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1999

2000

2001

2002

Seto et al., in prep

Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2002

Residential Floor Space, Guangdong Province,1980-2000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000urban 8.55 12.13 16.24 16.97 19.27rural 14.87 17.39 20.83 22.32 23.11

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1988 1990 1995 2000

Year

Leng

th (k

m)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

(000

s) HighwaysMotor Vehicles

Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2004

Main Indicators of Transportation Services, Guangdong Province

Urbanization and agricultural land loss

Agricultural Land Agricultural Land Loss

Source: Seto et al., 2000. Nature.

Agricultural Land Loss For 10 Cities, 1990-1996

Carbon Emissions Associated withUrban Growth

Urban Land Use Change

PRD

Source: Dye, 2000. ACRS

Chengdu, Sichuan Province

• Administrative, cultural center with 2500 year history

• City: 2.5 million. Municipality: 11 million

• Fertile plain - triple cropping system

• 1950s, 1960s: Industrial center

• City chosen for investment

Urban Growth in Chengdu

197819881991199520002002

300% increase in urban land

stable urban1978 - 19881988 - 19911991 - 19951995 - 20002000 - 2002

non-urban

Socioeconomic ChangesForeign and domestic investment

Policy incentives

Economic opportunities and migration

Increases in disposable income

Drivers of Urban Growth

Conclusions: Chengdu

• Energy demand and composition

• Dietary patterns: from grain- to meat-based diet

• Traditional familial relations and housing arrangements

• Disparity between urban and rural; coast and interior

• Increase in disposable incomes

• Agricultural land loss

• Water and air pollution

• Greenhouse gas emissions

Implications of Urbanization

Challenges for sustainable urban growth

• Requires Chinese, not Western, model

• Integrated, hierarchical, multi-user public transportation

• Increase density and land-use efficiency

• Intra- and intercity economic disparities

• Loss of most productive agricultural land

• Changes in urban lifestyles: diet, energy demand

Prospects for sustainable urban growth

• Post-hoc analyses of regional plans

• Increased public transportation

• Increased density and land-use efficiency

• Leap-frog technology: energy efficiency

• Multi-unit housing and multi-use zoning