Urban development and transport in Greater Copenhagen....Central city (Copenhagen or Frederiksberg)...
Transcript of Urban development and transport in Greater Copenhagen....Central city (Copenhagen or Frederiksberg)...
Urban development and transport in Greater Copenhagen.
IEA-EGRD WORKSHOPMOBILITY: TECHNOLOGY PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIC URBAN PLANNING, 22 -24 May 2013, ESPOO, Finland
Thomas A. Sick NielsenEmail: [email protected]: +45 4525 6547
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Contents of the presentation• Structure and trends• Travel and subcenters• Stability and change 2006-2012• Cycling• Planning and Fingerplan 2013• Challenges
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Urban areas and networks*
*Cor
ine
Urb
an L
and
Cov
er 2
006
com
bine
d w
ith
road
and
rai
l net
wor
ks
(Nav
teq
+ B
aneD
anm
ark)
1,85 Mill in the ’Fingerplan area’
2,2 Mill residents on Zealand
Population growth is 0,5% per year (2000-2012)
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Population densities*
*Res
iden
tial
pop
ulat
ion
in D
anis
h 10
0x10
0 m
eter
dat
agri
d
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Commuting directions*
*Ave
rage
dir
ection
al v
ecto
rs c
alcu
late
d fr
om o
utco
mm
utin
g fr
om p
aris
hes
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Commuting desireline traces
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Distribution of regional population 1950-2000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Popu
latio
n
Central city (Copenhagen or Frederiksberg)
1st suburban ring
Beyond 1st suburban ring
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Commuting distance by centrality 1945 and 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25
Com
mut
ing
dist
ance
Distance to the centre
2002
1945
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Research into the importance of subcenters
Adequate interpretation of the functional geography of the metropolitan region, and especially development of location criteria for smart growth, requires careful analysis of subcenters – considering land values and transportation in tandem and the location derived imprint on travel demand and property markets.
How can subcenters be identified and validated –and how does subcenters affect travel?
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Research into the stability of location correlates of travelFew have looked at the stability of location determinants of transport and
included other travel purposes than work.Changes in interactions and regional structure over time suggest time
trends in the role of location and urban form. Furthermore location impacts may change as conditions for transport changes.
The stability or trend in location and urban form impacts should be highly relevant to regional policy as well as to scenario development.
How stable are urban form and location correlates of travel over time?
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Delineation and summary statistics
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101
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Classification of subcenters, 4 concepts
Center level Share of employment in subregion
Absolute employment Share of retail employment in subregion
Absolute number of retail jobs
1 19% 50000 20% 1500 2 15% 20000 15% 950 3 10% 10000 10% 400 4 5% 5000 5% 100 5 2,5% - 2,5% -
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Other urban form and location measures• Density• Diversity• Design• Destination accessibility• Distance to transit• Demand management(Ewing and Cervero 2011)
- Measured based on spatially explixit datasets and assigned to survey respondents by their home address.
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Danish National Travel survey• Computer assisted telephone interviews of representative sample of 10-
85 year olds
• One day of travel is registered
• Sample size is approx. 10000 persons/year
• Detailed account of travel by trip-stages, trips, and journeys; time, distance, mode, and purposes.
• Background data include household composition and vehicles; as well as socio-demographic variables, education, and income.
• Location references are available at the address and coordinate level: home, work, origins, and destinations.
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Subcenter structure
The regional centre is most important, but there are also several levels of subcenters
Regional travel demand depend on regional centrality two levels of subcenters + local density.
Subcenters are mainly to be identified as important concentrations of services (rather than employment per se).
Location determinants of travel can be described as a predicted daily travel distance surface (next slides).
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Predicted daily travel distance surface
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Economic changes 2006-2010
020
406080
100120140
160180200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Participation inlabourforceUnemployment
GDP/capita
Property sales
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Travel demand 2006-2010/11*
.005.00
10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00
MeanMedian75 pct percentile
*Based on the Danish National Travel survey
Km
/per
son/
day
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Changes in location dependency of travel• Regional centrality; density and job surplus at the neigbourhood
level – no significant changes.
• Significant changes in the role and effects of subregional centers /subcenters:
– For travel to work or education a three level center hierarchy is in effect in 2010/11 (regional center; and two levels of subcenters)
– For travel for nonwork and noneducation the role of subregional centers changes from induction by proximity -into distance defined travel.
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Other changes 2006/07 – 2010/11
• Cutting down on travel distances:– Women– Singles with children– Older people
• Stepping up in travel distances:– Unemployed– Driverslicense holders
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Some conclusions• Several levels of centers exist: regional center; and 2-3 levels of
subcenters.• The regional center remains the most important location criteria. • Effective subcenters are important subregional concentration of
services
• Behaviours have changed between 2006/07 and 2010/11 and this is reflected in the location dependency of travel.
• The importance of location in explaining travel distances has increased – based on subcenters.
• Changes probably reflect a reduced activity level and a tendency to ’save’ travel and expenses.
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Cycling
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Cycling modeshare 1996-2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Central city (Copenhagen or Frederiksberg)
The rest of the capital region (Fingerplan area)
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Regions
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Municipalities
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Transit authorities
MOVIA
DSB
Metroselskabet
Øresundståg
+
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Fingerplan area
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Fingerplan 2013
Regional zoning for urban development:
Inner- and outer metro-area
Green vedges
Other areas
Coordination of urban development
and transport with particular
emphasis on mass transit
Location strategies should contribute
to reduce congestion and promote
cycling and the use of public transport.
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Location principles
Core area for offices and services >1500 sq.meter
Extended area for dense residential or smaller office/ service developments
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Employees travelling by public transport
Distance to train stationPublic administrationInsuranceConsulting Engineers
- as a function of distance from place of work to a train station
Source: Miljøministeriet 2013. Forslag til Fingerplan 2013, hovedbudskaber, Miljøministeriet, Copenhagen
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Main urban development sites
Brownfield
Greenfield
Transport-related
and
University-related
development sites
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Ørestad
Forudsætningen for at Ørestanden kan få sin fulde attraktionsværdi, er imidlertid,
at den nye bydel byplanmæssigt knyttes til Københavns City og forbindes med
dette nationale center med gode nærforbindelser.... Efter lovforslaget etableres
der derfor en letbane... (F.t. Lov om ørestaden mv.)
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Ørestad (1995 masterplan)
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Metro ring in the centre 2007-2018
First part of extension to ’Nordhavn’ has
also been decided
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Nordhavn strategy (2009)
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New lightrail (2019-2020) with ’loopcity’ visions
Browfield-development /regeneration
in old suburbs
Loop vision by BIG architectswww.ringtre.dk
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Cycle highways
New integration and grading
of cycle networks
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The state of affairs...• Substantial carotting of travel behaviours towards public and cycling• Support from fairly restrictive land-use planning regime + public and
private urban development corperations• Proactive efforts to promote cycling – widely supported
• Favouring of carsharing in central areas by P-space provision• Restrictions on parking provision in some urban developent areas• Provisions for el-vehicle carging in central areas• EL-vehicle policies in some municipalities • General favouring of el-vehicles in the form of tax-releif (no spatial
criteria).
• This will have an effect on the energy efficiency of transport and travels
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Challenges/knowledge needs• Adequacy of mobility management packages for new
urban development sites (parking, transit provision, cycling, urban density and services) depending upon spatial context
• Policy innovations to support energy efficient travel patterns and behaviours – exploiting services and capacities
• Boundary crossing travel and cities wihout limits – effects – and how to deal with it.
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AcknowledgementsResults have been derived from projects funded by the
Danish Council for Strategic Research:
• Drivers- and Limits for transport – possible contributions to climate change
http://www.transport.dtu.dk/driversandlimits
• Bikeability: cities for zero-emission travel and publich health
http://www.bikeability.dk/