URBAN CRISIS AND TRENDS IN SUB –AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND GLOBAL COMPERATIVE: A THREAT TO HUMAN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT, IN KENYA.

ABSTRACT

urban centres existed and evolving for centuries across world, accelerated growth of urbanisation in kenya is a relatively recent phenomenon.

enormous size of urban populations and more significantly, rapid growth developing countries have severe social, economic and physical repercussions.

discussion argues accelerated growth of urbanisation has amplified demand for key services. BUY, provision of shelter and basic services ;water and sanitation, education, public health,

employment and transport has not kept pace with this increasing demand. furthermore, accelerated and poorly managed urbanisation resulted in various types of

atmospheric, land and water pollution thereby jeopardising human security. conclusion increased environmental, social and economic problems associated with rapid

urbanisation pose a threat to sustainable development, human security and, crucially, peace.

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

CONCEPTUALIZATIONS AND THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF URBAN CRISISES, URBAN PLANNING AND TRENDS

Urban development refers to ;social, cultural, economic and physical development of cities, as well as underlying causes of these processes.

Cities and their development is a central topic in human geography, and study of cities makes up sub-discipline of city geography or urbanism.

WHAT IS URBAN PLANNING? Technical and political process concerned with development and use of land,

protection , use of environment, public welfare, design  urban environment, including air, water,  infrastructure passing into and out of urban areas, such

as transportation, communications, and distribution networks. It also referred to as:  urban and regional planning,  regional planning, town planning,  city planning, rural planning or some combination in various areas

worldwide. It takes many forms and it can share perspectives and practices with 

urban design.

WHAT DOES GOOD URBAN DEVELOPMENT MEAN TO YOU?Urbanization offers a tremendous opportunity supporting growing global

population efficiently and humanely. Developing countries expected to build more new city-areas by 2030

(World Bank). China and India alone are expected to add 600 million new urban

residents by 2030The type of urban form these new cities, and new areas in existing cities,

strongly influence how and how long people travel in future. Moreover, urban forms that are developed will be closely linked to future of urban mobility.

Copenhagen, Denmark is often cited as a sustainable city. Photo of Copenhagen’s Central Station by Frank Schmidt.

DEFINING URBAN DEVELOPMENT The term “urban development”World Bank(2013) ‘Ideally, different perspectives – that of

health and safety, inclusion and equity, accessible services – . It also guides orderly development in urban, suburban and rural areas. predominantly

concerned with planning of settlements and communities. still responsible for planning and development of water use and resources, rural and

agricultural land, parks and conserving areas of natural environmental significance.  Practitioners concerned with research and analysis, strategic thinking, architecture, urban

design, public consultation, policy recommendations, implementation and management. Urban planners work with cognate fields of architecture, landscape architecture, 

civil engineering, and public administration to achieve strategic, policy and sustainability goals. Early urban planners were often members of these cognate fields.

Today urban planning is a separate, independent professional discipline,includes;land-use planning, zoning, economic development, environmental planning, and transportation planning

WHAT IS THE HISTORICAL ORIGIN OF URBAN PLANNING? evidence of urban planning and designed communities dates back to

Mesopotamian, Indus Valley, Minoan, and Egyptian civilizations in 3rd millennium BCE.

Archeologists studying ruins of cities found paved streets that were laid out at right angles in a grid pattern. The idea evolved with civilizations . Beginning 8th century BCE, Greek city states were primarily centered on orthogonal (or grid-like) plans. 

The ancient Romans, inspired by Greeks, used orthogonal plans for their cities. in Roman world idea developed for military defense and public convenience. The spread of Empire subsequently spread ideas of urban planning.

As Roman Empire declined, these ideas slowly disappeared. However, many cities in Europe still held onto planned Roman city center.

Cities in Europe 9th to 14th centuries, often grew organically and sometimes chaotically. But many hundreds of new towns were newly built according to preconceived plans, and many others were enlarged with newly planned extensions.

Most were realized from the 12th to 14th centuries, with a peak-period at the end of the 13th. 

From 15th century ,records of urban design and people involved, theoretical treatises on architecture and urban planning start to appear which theoretical questions are addressed and designs of towns and cities are described and depicted.

During civilization, several European rulers ambitiously attempted to redesign capital cities. During 2nd French Republic, Baron Georges-Eugène Haussmann, under direction of Napoleon III, redesigned city of Paris into a more modern capital, with long, straight, wide boulevards.

Planning and architecture went a paradigm shift 20th century. The industrialized cities 19th century grew at a tremendous rate. The pace and style was largely dictated by the concerns of private business.

The evils of urban life for the working poor were becoming increasingly evident as a matter for public concern. The laissez-faire style of government management of the economy, in fashion for most of Victorian era, was starting give way to a New Liberalism that championed intervention on part of poor and disadvantaged.

Around 1900, theorists began developing urban planning models to mitigate the consequences of industrial age, by providing citizens, especially factory workers, with healthier environments.

Urban planning started to become professionalized during this time. The Town and Country Planning Association founded 1899 and first academic course on urban

planning was offered by University of Liverpool 1909.   1920s, ideas of modernism and uniformity began to surface in urban planning, lasted until 1970s.

Many planners started to believe ideas of modernism in urban planning led to higher crime rates and social problems. Urban planners now focus more on individualism and diversity in urban centers.

WHAT IS THE THEORIES BEHIND URBAN PLANNING?Planning theory is the body of scientific concepts, definitions,

behavioral relationships, and assumptions that define the body of knowledge of urban planning.

There are eight procedural theories of planning : rational-comprehensive approach, incremental approach, transactive approach, communicative approach, the advocacy

approach, equity approach, radical approach, humanist or phenomenological approach.

1. RATIONAL-COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH, process involving a number of rational actions or steps. Taylor (1998) outlines five steps:

A. Definition of the problems and/or goals;Identification of alternative plans/policies;

B. Evaluation of alternative plans/policies;Implementation of plans/policies;

C. Monitoring of effects of plans/policies,used in planning and designing neighborhoods, cities, and regions. It has been central in the development of modern urban planning and transportation planning. THE MODEL HAS MANY LIMITATIONS, lack of guidance on involving stakeholders and community affected by planning, and other models of planning, such as collaborative planning, The very similar rational decision-making model, as it is called in organizational behavior, is a process

for making logically sound decisions. This multi-step model and aims to be logical and follow rderly path from problem identification through solution.

Rational decision making is a multi-step process for making logically sound decisions that aims to follow orderly path from problem identification through solution.

2.INCREMENTAL APPROACH, In politics, the term Incrementalism is also used as a synonym for Gradualism Incrementalism is a method of working by adding to a project using many small 

incremental changes instead of a few (extensively planned) large jumps.  Logical incrementalism implies that steps in process are sensible.Logical

Incrementalism focuses on "the Power-Behavioral Approach to planning rather than to the Formal Systems Planning Approach."  

In public policy, incrementalism refers to method of change of many small policy changes are enacted over time in order to create a larger broad based policy change.

This theoretical policy developed by Lindblom seen as a middle way between  rational actor model and bounded rationality, as both long term goal driven policy rationality and satisficing were not seen as adequate

3.TRANSACTIVE PLANNING

alternative to comprehensive rational planning i.e model is based on communicative rationality or based on human communication and dialogue between planners and people affected by planning (Kinyashi 2006; Larsen 2003)

CENTRAL ASSUMPTIONS

There exist various interests within society.

The interpersonal dialogue triggers a mutual learning process leading to an intensive communication about measures

ASSUMPTIONS AND ROLE OF THE PLANNER

Planners act as supporters and participants among many (Mitchell 2002).

Equipped with technical knowledge, communicative and group-psychological skills, planners are able to reduce disparities between participants and reach consensus (Kinyashi 2006).

Planners are centre of systematic knowledge; i.e mediate between different interests and communicate information between actors in planning process (Larsen 2003).

CONTD…. ROLE OF THE POPULATION The population bring a central contribution to planning process with their traditional knowledge and

experiences. They plan and steer actively (Kinyashi 2006). PLANNING PROCESS Planning is carried out decentrally. In an open atmosphere ,expertise of the planner and experimental

knowledge of population are combined and transformed into shared measures (Kinyashi 2006). The planning process is characterised by:

i. interpersonal dialogue and mutual learning (Mitchell 2002);

ii. a central focus on individual and organisatorial development (see capacity building) (Larsen 2003; Mitchell 2002);

iii. partnership building;

iv. incorporation of traditional knowledge (Mitchell 2002). Planning in this model is considered less as a scientific-technical activity than in comprehensive rational

planning model. In fact, considered as a ‘face-to-face’ interaction of planners and local population affected by plans. Thus, planning is more a subjective endeavour than an objective process.

CRITICISMa) Participation takes time which parts of the population do not have, especially the poorer ones. Their

interests may be ignored;b) high participation costs;c) Sometimes the population may not be prepared to plan for the long run and thereby to postpone

short-term satisfaction (Hostovsky 2007).

4.COMMUNICATIVE PLANNING THEORY is a procedural planning theory which came to prominence in 1990s. (Jurgen Habermas) focuses on using

communication to help different interests in process understand each other. The idea is each individual will approach a conversation with his or her own subjective experience in mind and

that from conservation shared goals and possibilities will emerge. participation plays a central role under this model. Without the involvement of concerned interests there is no

planning. in economic realm, competence or fairness is thought to be solved by participation. Habermas has provided with

four precondition of communication which are: comprehensible, true, sincere and legitimate. In order to obtain genuine communication.

that planners have to be effective communicators and negotiators. Tore Sager “Communicative planning theory is an open and participatory enterprise involving a broad range of

affected groups in socially oriented and fairness-seeking developments of land, infrastructure, or public services guided by a consensus building process designed to approach the principles of discourse ethics.”

The main framework is to eliminate distortions, to foster open and authentic communication, to make true political discourse and dialogue possible

CRITICISMS IN COMMUNICATIVE PLANNING THEORY Jeng Tang contends there is a strong normative tendency and has inevitably faced criticisms,

ie.Habermassian thought tends to demonstrate a significant blindness to role of power (Hillier, 1993:89 cf. Tang) theory focuses more on how planning should be or ought to be, and what actions are wrong or right for planning.

This normative tendency where the role of planner is subjected to that of the mediator. It is not clear as to who holds the power of making the decision.,theory doesn’t make clear on this very point.

present a perfect intrinsic logic of limited people participate in the forum . Bengs (2005b:7) regards this mode of planning takes the economic interests of investors and

developers as point of departure, not as one particular issue among others to be modified and balanced against public interest.

WHY AND WHAT IS THE TECHNICAL ASPECT OF URBAN PLANNING?

TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF URBAN PLANNING INVOLVE THE

applying scientific, technical processes, considerations and features that are involved in planning for land use, urban design, natural resources, transportation, and infrastructure.

TECHNIQUES SUCH AS:

predicting population growth,

zoning, geographic mapping and analysis,

analyzing park space, surveying the water supply,

identifying transportation patterns, recognizing food supply demands,

allocating healthcare and social services, and analyzing the impact of land use.

WHY AND WHO IS URBAN PLANNER? a professional who works for purpose of optimizing effectiveness of a community's land

use and infrastructure. formulate plans for development and management of urban and suburban areas, analyzing

land use compatibility as well as economic, environmental and social trends. In developing plan for a community (whether commercial, residential, agricultural, natural

or recreational), planners must consider a wide array of issues ; sustainability, air pollution, traffic congestion, crime, land values, legislation and zoning codes. NOTE The importance increased 21st century, as modern society begun to face issues of increased

population growth, climate change and unsustainable development.

considered a green collar professional

INTRODUCTION In almost all countries, there has been a propensity towards concentration of growing

populations in moderately large cities. Within developing world cities are centres of growth and governance,home to an increasing proportion of national population(UN,2004).

policies encouraged establishment of large scale, capital-intensive industries in large cities. policies related to agriculture, food subsidies and exchange rates have tended to keep food prices low for urban consumers at expense of farmers (World Bank 1989).

Largely due to policies, level of urbanisation increased dramatically to nearly 40% today. This translates to urban population about 250 million in 2030 (UNPF 2007).

For instance, Mozambique, Maputo accounts for 83% of the country’s urban population, while for Dakar, Lome, Kampala and Harare are 65%, 60%, 52% and 50% respectively (World Bank 2002).

Historically, in developed countries urbanisation usually accompanied industrialisation and closely associated with rapid and sustained economic growth.

In contrast, rapid urbanisation is taking place in an economic setting of negligible industrial growth and transformation(UN 2003).

FACTORS AFFECTING URBANISATION Migration from rural areas accounts to 60% of the urban population and in exceptional cases, as much

as 75 % (Todaro 2000). RURAL-TO-URBAN MIGRATION CAUSES

1. poverty resulting from low agricultural productivity, aggravated by demographic growth, prolonged drought or natural disasters exacerbates rural poverty .

2 .rural relatively under-served by physical, financial, social and economic infrastructure. inadequate allocation of resources for operational expenses ,insufficient investment in infrastructure, agriculture, schools and hospitals. The negative effects are exacerbated by government policies,state-controlled pricing and marketing of

agricultural products, push farmers and their families to cities. While urban may be under-served by essential services relative to inhabitants’ needs,provision of

infrastructure and social services is generally better there than rural . Consequently, relatively high concentration of social services and potential employment opportunities

in urban a, coupled with glamour of city life, are important factors attracting rural people to cities.

TRENDS IN NUMBERS OF SLUM DWELLERS Continued urban expansion ,resulted in sustained urbanisation,population living

in urban rose from 46.6 % in 2000 to 50.6 % in 2010. same period urban population of developing nations increased from 40.1% to 45.3% .

The urban population of developing countries projected to reach 50.5% in 2020. Accessible data from developing regions, confirm, efforts to decrease urban

inequality and international community’s attempts towards accomplishing MDG and associated targets given positive results.

Regardless of increase in slum population from 767 million in 2000 to 828 million in 2010 (UN-HABITAT GUO data, 2010), proportion of urban population in slums in developing regions declined from 39.3% to 32.7% (see Table below).

Major region 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Developing countries 46.1 42.8 39.3 35.7 32.7

Africa 60.0 57.2 54.0 51.6 51.3

Northern Africa 34.4 28.3 20.3 13.4 13.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 70.0 67.6 65.0 63.0 61.7

Asia 47.3 43.3 39.1 34.9 30.6

Eastern Asia 43.7 40.6 37.4 33.0 28.2

Southern Asia 57.2 51.6 45.8 40.0 35.0

South-Eastern Asia 49.5 44.8 39.6 34.2 31.0

Western Asia 22.5 21.6 20.6 25.8 24.6

Latin America and the Caribbean 33.7 31.5 29.2 25.5 23.5

Oceania 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1

Kenya’s urban average annual growth rate of 3.3% between 1990 and 2000, the highest in the world (Pieterse 2010). This expansion of urban population has persisted at a rate that greatly exceeds the rate of creation of possibilities for gainful employment for job seekers.

Employment hard for unskilled rural migrants. Large school leavers of both rural and urban remain unemployed for years after graduation. Unemployed find shelter with and depend on relatives.

This impairs cities’ ability to meet service delivery needs. Others survive through informal economy (Obeng-Odoom 2011). This growing group becomes part of the urban poor.

Urban poverty has many dimensions and causes I.E psychological deprivation that’s street families and exclusion of both material and amenties.

One consequence of escalating urban poverty is the growing number of street children . The growth and development of informal or parallel economy inseparable of urbanisation . estimates are informal economy

and opportunity it provides for employment will grow at an annual rate of 7% whereas jobs of formal economy likely to increase at a rate of 2% to 3% per year (Todaro 2000).

The informal economy employs 60% of urban workforce in Kenya, but accounts for less than ¼ of urban economic growth output.

formal economy include: ease of entry, reliance on indigenous resources, individual or family ownership of enterprises, small-scale operation, The growth and development of informal or parallel economy has become an inseparable part of urbanisation in Kenya today.

RISING CRIME AND HUMAN INSECURITY

Cities plagued by both random and organised criminal operations, and Kenya is no exception. Ensuring public security and enforcing rule of law is key challenges facing urban governance African countries(Kessides 2005).

general problems of poverty and social exclusion within urban ,extreme weaknesses of national police and justice systems,

absence of trust communities and local governments compound challenge of increasing insecurity and emerging of criminal gangs i.e graduated to drug trafficking and money laundering.

growing threat of armed robbery and the inability of police to provide adequate protection, relatively well-to-do individuals and many businesses are engaging private security firms.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES Amidst widespread threat of crime, many urban poor are forced to live in situations of

extreme human insecurity, sheltered in informal settlements /shortage of affordable housing

In theory, concentration of urban settlements should make it more economical and feasible to provide all these essential services.

BUT due to financial limitations and capacity constraints,cities are incapable of providing basic services to citizens. In general, lack of adequate infrastructure ranks high as basic impediments to economic growth in Kenya (United Nations 2014).

The high rate of growth of urban settlements has consequences for social services such as education, health and care for the poor and elderly. In many countries, governments have been unable to cope with demand for social services.

Governments had to face a new and additional burden, the social and economic consequences of the HIV-AIDS epidemic/infection (Heinecken 2001).

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES There exist many opportunities for countries to strengthen service delivery and thereby

redress the challenge of human insecurity. By tackling housing challenges, unemployment and water and sanitation issues – while

boosting infrastructural development – they can neutralise threats to their citizens’ human security and positively affect urban-rural links.

DEVELOPING EMPLOYMENT OPTIONS High rates of unemployment and limited economic opportunities have created a potentially

explosive social problem in many cities,particularly high levels of youth unemployment (Eguavoen 2010).

It is therefore incumbent on governments to create an enabling environment for private enterprise and investment.

National and local policies have a significant impact in this regard. Its difficult for enterprises be competitive if transport costs are high, if corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies result in delays and higher costs and if services are unreliable.

IMPROVING URBAN FACILITIES In principle, fundamental and essential social services should be available to all. BUT in reality lack of jobs or

income explains the exclusion of many poor urban dwellers from urban facilities like clinics, schools and public housing. Furthermore, dissatisfied customers of utilities are reluctant to pay user charges, and may feel justified in evading municipal levies and taxes.

The private sector is unlikely to invest or expand its operations under such conditions. This erodes the tax base, in turn means governments , insufficient funds to maintain or upgrade existing facilities (World Bank 2011).

One crucial issue is provision of public services in slums and illegal housing areas. At times such settlements are permitted by governments, authorities fail to provide services and policy changes have led to radical improvements.

In long term, adequacy of services and infrastructure likely be significant factors in prosperity, as well as livability of cities. lack resources to upgrade infrastructure. Oftentimes, poor planning and lack of innovation confound these challenges.

A lack of long-term, city-wide planning often results in piecemeal and ad hoc interventions as well as substantial disparities in terms of service provision within cities.

long-term strategy helps provide adequate service in a cost-effective manner, resulting to advantage of economies of scale and existing networks. It helps balance environmental degradation evident in cities; results from lack of planning or adherence to regulatory standards.

To help reduce urban poverty, it is important consideration given to improving access to basic services within entire cities. (Babcock 2008).

STRENGTHENING RURAL-URBAN LINKAGES Maximising positive aspects of urbanisation and minimizing negative requires strategic planning and

management at top level, supported by effective systems for collection of data and information. BUT, depends on coherence of policies and promotion of synergies in urban -rural within a broad development framework.

This include strategies to support the growth of small towns and secondary cities, complementing trend toward decentralisation. (Turok and Parnell 2009).

Secondary cities have potential to strengthen rural-urban linkages, retain young talent. They serve as markets, storage and processing centres, and supply points for improved agricultural technologies and essential farm inputs or consumer goods.

While every country is different,experience from recent past in countries suggests economic development of rural largely dependent on both diversity of rural-urban linkages and extent which they are exploited. Reliable and varied flows of people, trade and resources have proven beneficial.

The improvement of transport and communications networks ,development of small towns and secondary cities provide accessible markets for agricultural produce serve to strengthen rural economies and help to boost rural-urban linkages.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE OF CERTAIN INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING

CASE INDIA:5 KEY INDICATORS; Indian cities are urbanizing at an unprecedented scale and pace,next few decades, population

is expected to increase significantly, from 377 million in 2011 to 590 million by 2030. The problem ,country’s existing urban transport infrastructure is already over-capacity. This

fact — coupled with high rate of traffic fatalities, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, congestion, and urban sprawl — has created urgency to improve quality of life in cities for future generations.

Against this backdrop, (EMBARQ)WRI’s Center for Sustainable Transport in India—in collaboration with Brihanmumbai Electrical Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST)—held its first annual CONNECTKaro conference 2012. The theme was two-fold:

i. to “CONNECT” sustainable urban transport to urban development,

ii. “Karo,” a Hindi word meaning to “do it” — to make it happen. Scaling sustainable transport and integrating it with land-use development is essential dynamic engines of economic growth, whilst providing a high quality of life for residents.

1.    BUS RAPID TRANSIT IS HERE TO STAY expansion of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in Indian cities. Janmarg in Ahmedabad,first fully

fledged BRT launched in 2009, will expand its network from 62 kilometers to 88 kilometers. 2.    TRANSIT-ORIENTED-DEVELOPMENT IS THE “NEXT BIG THING” While scaling-up BRT systems encouraging development, increasing supply of mass transport

will not be enough. The integration of land use and transportation also essential. Transit-Oriented-Development (TOD) viewed as big solution that will connect sustainable transport to sustainable urban development in India.

3.    CITY BUS SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN THE BACKBONE OF URBAN TRANSPORT City bus services primarly mode of public transport for ndia’s citizens.  In major metropolises like

Delhi and Bangalore, buses are 40 %of all motorized trips. For medium and smaller-sized cities, buses will be cost-effective mode of public transport.

Improving the scale and quality of city buses, then, should be central to city’s strategy to promote public transport over private vehicle use. Significant efforts been toward this goal (Krishna, 2009)

4.    PEDESTRIANS AND CYCLISTS MUST BE AT THE CORE OF URBAN AND TRANSPORT PLANNING

yearly,130,000 deaths a result of traffic accidents — 1/10th of global total. If trends continue, traffic crashes will be 1/5th leading cause of all age groups by 2030, surpassing diseases ; tuberculosis and AIDS.

The most vulnerable road users are pedestrians and cyclists.

5.    ENGAGEMENT WITH THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS CRITICAL A final key message from conference focused on tremendous opportunity to shift private

sector investments toward sustainable outcomes.  A recent study indicated India needs U.S. $871 billion infrastructure investments 20 years.

Of this,U.S. $500 billion needed for transport infrastructure alone. Given fiscal constraints in public sector, a majority of this money expected to originate from private investors.

a brighter future for India’s cities

THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPERS IN SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Rapid urbanization in India is raising people’s incomes, creating huge demand for housing, and increasing vehicle ownership rates in upper-middle and middle classes.

By 2030, 50% population expected to live in cities, and in turn create a huge demand for housing. To cater for housing demand, private real estate developers are building large gated residential

communities.primarily located in peripheral areas of city where land is cheaper, but supporting public infrastructure is often severely limited.

strong evidence of interaction of transport patterns and urban form can be cyclical, i.e more car-oriented urban development in locations farther from city fosters increased vehicle ownership.

This requires land to accommodate increased infrastructure requirements for private vehicles. To address this need, developers construct more residential communities in peripheral locations. The design of new developments, therefore, risks creating and perpetuating residential communities’ dependence on private vehicles.

 Household surveys conducted by EMBARQ India in Bangalore show that in comparison to the rest of the city – where 6% of people drive cars – roughly 63% of those living in these gated communities drive.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3208436739/in/photostream/

http://thecityfix.com/blog/private-developers-sustainable-mobility-bangalore-anjali-mahendra-ashwin-mahesh/people-centric-design-bangalore-transport-sustainable-2/

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF URBAN PLANNING TRENDS; CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA: FIVE TRENDS IN AFRICA’S RAPID URBANIZATION

South Africa is at an advanced stage of urbanization, but Johannesburg still world's most unequal cities.Cities are growing fast. But trend lines and context of growth vary widely across the continent.

1. THE STATE OF URBANIZATION VARIES WIDELY BY COUNTRY Africa as a whole is urbanizing rapidly: From 1950 to today, share of urban residents rose from 14% to 40 %, and expected to reach

50% by the mid-2030s. But pace and shape of trend looks very differently. Those 5 TRENDS include: 

a) Diversifiers (Egypt, South Africa and Tunisia) are at most advanced stage of each process 

b) Agrarians (Chad, Niger and Malawi) are at an early stage in each. 

c) Early urbanizers (Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal), while not showing a lot of progress in their structural transformation, are generally more urbanized and have lower fertility ratios. 

d) Late urbanizers (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) begun urbanizing but still predominantly rural with high fertility ratios and generally low income levels.

e) Natural resources-based countries (Congo, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe) generally more urbanized, particularly around a single prime city. Fertility rates remain generally high and income levels vary widely depending what natural resources they produce.

NOTE biggest drivers of urbanization is growth of towns and intermediate cities. That trend expected to continue. Meanwhile, Cote d’Ivoire,

Mali and Zambia, have actually seen drops in the urban share of their populations.

2.STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH URBANIZATION

Historically, there’s been a link between urbanization and structural transformation; the emergence of cities brings a rise in incomes and living standards.  

In some places, urbanization is becoming synonymous with overcrowded informal settlements, congestion, overloaded infrastructure and high costs of living.

Many states failed to industrialize as they urbanize, especially within sub-Saharan Africa. This may not be permanent, however, cities have power to promote industrialization that creates demand for products and facilitate innovation.

cites rising productivity in agriculture, services-led growth and increasing amounts of FDIs as catalysts for increasing structural transformation.

For example, FDIs can help develop local businesses and bring knowledge and technology transfer that supports economic growth

3.AFRICAN CITIES HAVE HIGH RATES OF POVERTY AND INEQUALITY Poverty is an enormous problem in African cities, 62% of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population lives in

slums. challenges, health risks due to poor living conditions and overcrowding, livelihood risks from vulnerable

employment, external shocks from events such as natural disasters that disproportionately affect them, and governance risks as they do not receive adequate policy attention.

4.THE EXPANSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS DRIVES SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH The majority of Africa’s middle class lives in cities,having a consumption worth US$4-20 per day. main reasons why an emerging middle class can contribute to growth.i. people with more income are more inclined to pursue entrepreneurial activities that may create

employment and productivity growth. ii. those who do not become entrepreneurs can provide labor or investment for those who do. iii. a growing middle class means a growing demand for consumer goods. That alone could push consumer

spending in Africa from about US$860 billion in 2008 to US$1.4 trillion in 2020.5.CLIMATE CHANGE IS A MAJOR THREAT Africa has contributed relatively little to world’s greenhouse-gas emissions. Nevertheless, its cities will

disproportionately feel impacts of a changing climate. The flooding, changing rain patterns and extreme heat waves may leave most African countries poorer in 2100 than they are today.

CONCLUSION1.Redressing the political, social and economic problems posed by speedy urbanisation is one of the most pressing governance challenges confronting African governments today. The prevalence of urban poverty and deprivation, sharply contrasted with relative wealth, have created a potentially volatile

situation, which if left unattended could result in insecurity and even lead to political upheaval. People migrate to urban centres hoping to secure a better future for themselves and their families. Governments have an

obligation to create policies that permit them to accomplish this goal.

2.However, recent democratisation and improved communication capabilities have presented most African governments with a fresh opportunity to tackle these challenges in partnership with civil society. In addition, urbanisation presents economic and political opportunities for national development. In the struggle to improve

service provision, citizens employ participatory strategies as they establish community structures or elected bodies. This process also fosters citizen engagement in national politics more generally, advancing popular political awareness and

the institutionalisation of democratic culture. With a suitable political milieu, the economic potential of urbanisation can provide a foundation for national growth and prosperity towards the creation of vibrant and affluent cities in Africa, and beyond.

3. African countries can assimilate tactics from other regions in quest to transform urbanisation they are experiencing from an unbridled phenomenon to centrepiece in development initiatives today. Accordingly, if pragmatic efforts are made to effectively manage urbanisation, African cities will be both sustainable and able to provide human security to their citizens.