Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond

Morris A. BenderGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA

Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island

Carey Dickerman and Roger Stocker Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

3-D Ocean Coupling

NAVY’S VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL (GFDN) HAD NOT BEEN UPGRADED SINCE 2003 AND LAGS IN SKILL

BEHIND THE VERSION RUN AT NCEP

GFDN model Physics and Resolution were made consistent with NCEP’s GFDL Model

• Addition of Third Mesh (Doubling of the Innermost Resolution to 1/12 degree)

• Upgrade with NCEP’s Ferrier Micro-physics

(Replaced simplified large-scale condensation)• Dissipative Heating Effect Added• Improved Surface Momentum Fluxes Derived

from Wave Model

SUMMARY OF 2008 GFDN MODEL UPGRADES Made Operational November 2008

GFDN MODEL COUPLED TO PRINCETON OCEAN MODEL IN ALL OCEAN BASINS

•Coupled to 3d version of POM model in Atlantic (Identical to current version operational in GFDL)•Coupled to 1d Version of POM in all Other Ocean Basins (e.g.,Epac, Wpac, Indian Ocean, South Pacific)(Current GFDL coupled to 1d version of POM in Eastern and Central Pacific)•Ocean initialized by the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) model on a daily basis in all basins except the Atlantic. •Loop Current, Gulf Stream, Warm and Cold Core Eddy Initialization in the Atlantic

TESTS SHOWED IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES

(2005-2007)

AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL

UPGRADES TO GFDN PLANNED F0R 2009

• Upgrade Coupling in the Pacific Basin from 1-D to 3-D Ocean Model (Spring 2009)

• Ocean initialized by NCODA data in the Atlantic Basin (2009-2010)

Oceanic Features in the Western Pacific Will be Improved by replacing 1-D Ocean model with 3-D Ocean Model

0 hr

96 hr

1-D Coupling

1-D Coupling

3-D Coupling

3-D Coupling

Typhoon Nary (2007)

1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling

Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006

Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm

HOUR 0

HOUR 120 HOUR 120

1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling

HOUR 0

Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006)

1 1-D OCEAN COUPLING

2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING

3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN

MAXIMUM WINDS

CENTRAL PRESSURE

3-D Coupling

3-D Coupling

Typhoon Ewiniar : July 3rd, 12z, 2006Fast Moving Storm May Have Less Impact with 3-D Coupling

1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling

HOUR 0

HOUR 120

HOUR 0

HOUR 120

Typhoon Ewiniar (July 3rd, 1200 UTC, 2006)

1 1-D OCEAN COUPLING

2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING

3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN

MAXIMUM WINDS

CENTRAL PRESSURE

OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS with 3-D Coupling Compared to 1-D

1-D GFDN

3-D GFDN

3-D GFDN

REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5WITH 3-D COUPLING

OLD GFDN

3-D GFDN1-D GFDN

3D Coupling Extended to Eastern and Central PacificHurricane John (August 31st, 2006)

1-D Coupling 3-D COUPLING

Improved Details with High Resolution NCODA Ocean Data will be Extended to the Atlantic Basin

CLIMATOLOGY NCODA DATA

NOGAPS SSTs

Temperatures at 75 m

NCODA SSTs

Temperatures at 75 m

PROPOSED UPGRADES TO GFDN 2010-2012 • Increase inner-nest resolution from 1/12th to 1/18th degree

• Full Coupling with Wave Model

• Improved Surface Fluxes

• Sea-Spray Effect Included

• Improved Radiation Package

New Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave model design for GFDN

SUMMARY

• UPGRADED GFDN MODEL MADE OPERATIONAL NOVEMBER 2008

• GFDN OCEAN COUPLING IN PACIFIC BASIN TO BE UPGRADED FROM 1-D TO 3-D OCEAN MODEL IN 2009

• TEST RESULTS INDICATED SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION WITH REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5

• NAVY’S OCEAN DATA ANALYSIS (NCODA) TO BE EXTENED TO ATLANTIC BASIN (2009-2010)

• FULL COUPLING WITH WAVE MODEL PLANNED FOR 2010 INCLUDING SEA-SPRAY EFFECTS