Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan
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Transcript of Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan
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Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan
Michael J. Emmerton, ADB Team Leader - 24 May 2013
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Energy Masterplanning Challenges
• Large land area• Sparse population on the move• Minerals Extraction (mines)• Industrialization• Natural Fibres• Meat and milk• Oil refining• Minerals processing• Industrial Parks (smelters)
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Mongolia’s 15 Strategic Mineral Deposits
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Mongolia’s Potential Electricity Intensification
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Mongolia’s Potential Demand Growth
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Combined Heat & Power Plants
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Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient
• Compared to modern plant• Water consumption high• Pollutants high
• Thermal Efficiency • CHP4 - total thermal efficiency ~ 55%• Power-to-Heat ratio ~0.29
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CHP Cogeneration & Condensing Products
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Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient
• CHP4 • Total thermal efficiency – 55%
• New CHP in Mongolia • Heat production efficiency – 89%• Electric power efficiency – 46.7%• Total thermal efficiency – 59.7%
• CHP in continuous cogeneration mode• Total thermal efficiency – 89%
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Taishir Hydropower, Gobi Altai – 11MW
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Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand
• All previous studies have compared a hydropower plant to a ‘hypothetic’ gas turbine operating at time of peak load
• Cost estimates have been varied and generally too low
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Mongolia’s Expected HPP Capital Costs
Project
Capacity
MW
Production
GWh
Hydraulic Head
(m)
Crest
Length (m)
Cost
$/kW
Egiin 220 412 73 710 2,827Sheuren 205 957 63 700 -1,200 2,969Burin 161 760 52 1,700 3,251Artset 118 553 57 1,400 3,362Orkhon 100 219 65 495 3,353Erdene-Burin 64 243 85 - 4,154
Chargait 15 68 24 570 3,716Maikhan 12 46 417 no dam 1,772UB Pump S 100 (102) 224 - 2,473
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Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand
• Design optimization shows that an HPP c constructed on Sheuren river system has optimal design, from cost and energy perspective, if• 390MW• 1,260GWhr per annum• Capacity factor ~ 55%
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Sheuren HPP (300MW) DespatchMay 2022
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Newcom Salkhit Windpark – 50MW
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Myth no. 3 – Mongolia’s Wind & Solar resources can be exploited to supply Asia
• Wind and solar PV suffers from intermittency
• In Mongolia there is little wind in winter months
• Across vast distances in Mongolia, and with a small capacity system, controlling a transmission grid with significant intermittent power sources is a complex undertaking
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Diurnal Net Power Production (200MW Wind)
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Economics of Energy Technology in Mongolia
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Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
• Heat Supply• A new CHP plant is the most economical heat
supply for UB city • Large Heat Only Boiler (HOB) is needed to
bridge from now to 2018• Total investment in heat supply will be of the
order of $3.5B (money of the day basis).
• Half of the Aimag heating systems need replacement within the next five years at a cost of around $ 150m.
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Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
• Hydropower in 2022• Capacity 390MW, min 1,000GWh p.a.• Est. Cost $900m• Benefits• Reduced operating costs• More wind farms• Provides opportunity for Mongolia to
develop the capability to control system frequency across its vast transmission network
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Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
• T&D Networks• Strengthen to reduce energy losses, improve
reliability• Economic to supply mines up to 100MW if
within 300km of existing grid
• In time create a Mongolian super-grid at 400kV to support industrial centres
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Investment in Transmission & Distribution
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Support Clean Energy Research
• Under Mongolian conditions • Renewable energy technologies - solar
heating schemes, geothermal schemes• Involve the young and brightest engineers in
interesting projects that support Mongolia’s future direction