Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges
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COP22 EU pavilion side event “Bridging the NDCs and 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets: global perspective” Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges Takeshi Kuramochi 8 November, 2016, Marrakech
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Transcript of Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges
COP22 EU pavilion side event “Bridging the NDCs and 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets: global perspective”
Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges
Takeshi Kuramochi8 November, 2016, Marrakech
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 2
Current policy scenarios for 25 major emitting countries
New study by NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA• NewClimate: largely based on its
analyses for, and informed by, the Climate Action Tracker
• PBL: FAIR and TIMER models• IIASA (LULUCF): GLOBIOM and G4M
models
https://newclimate.org/2016/11/04/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries/
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 3
Current policy scenarios for 25 major emitting countries
What’s new compared to previous studies*:• Wider country coverage from 13 to 25
(roughly 80% of global total GHG emissions)
• Country fact sheetso Info on 2020 pledge and NDC/INDCo Overview of current energy and climate
policies per sectoro Updated current policy emission projections
vs. pledges (incl. official data from latest national reports to UNFCCC)
https://newclimate.org/2016/11/04/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries/
* https://newclimate.org/2015/05/12/enhancing-ambition-in-the-major-emitting-countries-2/, https://newclimate.org/2015/07/29/the-impact-of-good-practice-policies-on-regional-and-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions/
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 4
Main finding: less than a third of the countries are on track to achieve the (I)NDCs
o Others require additional measures to achieve NDCs/INDCs. o Progress on cutting down GHG emissions also varies. For
some countries, current policies do not stop emissions from increasing until 2030
o Still more effort needed to stay well below 2 °C
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 5
A country likely to meet NDC/INDC ≠ more stringent action
Targets differ in their ambition levels across countries• They are nationally determined and heterogeneous by nature;
Less than two years since the countries formulated their NDCs/INDCs. • Not surprising to see a gap between the mitigation targets and
current policies trajectories if countries pledged something above what they would have achieved anyway;
Countries have different policy-making approaches.• Some countries use their pledges or targets as a device to drive
more ambitious policies• Others use them merely to formalise the expected effect of
existing measures.
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 6
Methodological limitations
Considers a wide range of effective national climate and energy policies, but does not provide a complete assessment of all policies. Provides the current state of play, numbers subject to change • Existing policies may change and/or be abandoned for a variety of
reasons, and new policies may be implemented.
Countries are implementing policies in various areas to a varying degree. • Difficulty of assessing the implementation status
For bottom-up calculations using external scenarios, it is not always fully clear how the impacts of existing policy measures are quantified.
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 7
Morocco: Raised ambition in NDC
Current policies• Energy supplyo Installed RE capacity of 52% by
2030o 15-20% of total primary energy
by 2030• Energy efficiencyo 20% energy saving in 2030o Minimum efficiency
requirements for new buildings
Additional policies needed partly due to raised ambition in NDC
Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)
NDC: -17% vs. BAU in 2030(unconditional)-42% vs. BAU in 2030(conditional)
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 8
Japan: additional measures needed to achieve 2030 targets
Current policies• Economy-wide
o Global warming tax (3USD/tCO2)• Energy supply
o Renewable electricity target 22-24% by 2030o Renewable Feed-In Tariffo Nuclear restart applications (as of Oct 2016)
• Energy efficiencyo Top Runner Standardso Building insulation standards
• F-gaseso Act on rational use and proper management
Current policies projections revised downwardAdditional policies needed regardless of future on nuclear
Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)
INDC: -26% vs. 2013 levels
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 9
Mexico: current policies not sufficient for peaking before 2030
Current policies• Energy Transition Lawo Clean energy incl. cogeneration:
35% by 2024 (possibly less ambitious than previous RE targets)
o Power auctions for wind and solar• National Forestry Programmeo Reduce annual deforestation rate
to 0.2% of total forest area in 2018
Current policies projections revised upwardAdditional policies needed to achieve NDC target
NDC: -22% vs. baseline in 2030(unconditional)-26% vs. baseline in 2030(conditional)
