Updated: 23/01/08

Mitigation and Shared Vision—Review of the Science and Stakes in the Climate Negotiations

Mariama WilliamsGlobal Governance for Development Programme

South CentreGeneva, Switzerland

All statements are personal to the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the South Centre or its Member States.

Workshop of the Lead Coordinators of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate ChangeUNCC/UNECA Addis Ababa 13 to 15 August 2012

Outline- Shared Vision & Mitigation Africa: Situation & Context vis-à-vis CC Shared Vision & Mitigation state of play : • Long-term global reductions goal• Peaking Year Equitable Access to sustainable development

and Africa Observations

Mitigation State of Play

According to Hansen and others:• Earth is out of energy balance• Global warming is somewhere between 0.7-

0.8C• More warming in the pipeline• Highly intensive carbon intensive sources

can push climate science beyond tipping point

Since IPCC AR 4: evidence of urgency Summer sea ice cover in the artic is

decreasing (2007 and 2001) to an area 40% less than a few decades earlier

Artic sea ice thickness reduce (faster than IPCC climate model predicted)

The Greenland and Antarctic ice –shedding ice at a rate now several hundred cubic Kilo a year. Mountain glaciers are receding rapidly all around the world fresh water availability of major rivers

Projected regional impacts in developing country regions (IPCC AR4, 2007)

Africa and climate change

With current 0.74 C of warming, Africa:• Severe rain Progressive drying of soils Threats to food production Increase in sea surface temperature->Sahel

drought (1980s) & drought in Horn of Africa (2000s)

Africa and climate change

With increase warming ( 1.5C) by 2050:

Average production losses in African maize, 22%

Yield losses in other crops: sorghum (17%), millet (17%), groundnut (17%) and cassava (8%)

Emission reduction is needed to restore earth energy balance Science calls for: 350 PPM ( 450 ppm CO2eq

represents upper limit on concentration of heat-trapping emissions.) Temp. 1, 1.5-2C

A 6%/year decrease of fossil fuel emission (2013); 15% (2020)

About 100 GT reforestation Clean energy

Within the context of UNFCCC the need for reducing global emissions has been recognized… The convention argues for the stabilization of the climate system

Shared Vision

Article 2The Ultimate Objective…is to achieve, in accordance with

the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Shared Vision…

The Bali Action Plan 1. (a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a

long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention…

1 (b) (i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them…

1 (b) (ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;

(shared vision with CBDR,RC, equity, historical responsibiliteis)

Cancun & Durban

2 degree C: limiting average global temp blow 2C above pre-industrial level (review 2013-2015).

Work towards global goal for substantially reducing emissions

Global emissions or carbon budget (the overall amount of carbon that can be released into the atmosphere…

(1CP.16 para 5 & 6)

SHARED VISION

Long term emissions reductions goal Peaking year

Context:

Mitigation I(b)(i); 1 (b) (ii)

Adaptation

Finance $30b/$100b -2020/???

Technology transfer (modalities and targets)

Capacity building EASD

Share vision cont

global long term emissions reductions goal/equitable burden sharing based on Historical emissions

In near future Africa will be developing more rapidly emitting more so implication of Shared vision is important for Africa—mitigation (low carbon-methane, finance (now for adaptation, TT and Capacity building).

Capacity building important for Africa

The equity approach has implications for the various topics under LCA.

Of the cumulative global emissions Annex I countries accounted for 72% of the total compared to their share of population of about 25%. Developing countries accounted 28% of the total. The overutilization by Annex I was 568 Gt, the same as the under-utilisation by developing countries.

  

Long term global reduction goalsLong term global emission reduction goal:

a) temperature, 1,1.5, 2 degree C

b) Concentration (ppm)--(2 degree consistent with 400-450 ppm)

c) Lt.Global Emission Reduction Goal (1990, 2050)

d) Aggregate Lt. ER G for Annex I (1990, 2050)

Lt Global Emission reductions goal by 2050*

At least 50% from 1990 levels

50% from 1990 levels

85% from 1990 levels (AOSIS)

95 % from 1990 levels (Africa)

More than 100% from 1990 levels (Boliva et al)

*draft shared vision in FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/Inf. 29 Oct.2010

Aggregate Lt. Emissions reduction goal by 2050 for Annex I parties

75-85% from 1990 levels

Around 80% from 1990 levels

80% from 1990 levels (EU)

At least 80-95% from 1990 levels (AOSIS)

More than 95% from 1990 levels (Africa)

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Global Peaking Year

Global peaking year should also be discussed in the context of equity and to be preceded by a paradigm for the equitable sharing of the atmospheric space or resource. Like the global goals for temperature and emissions reduction, global peaking year have implications for the responsibilities of developing countries or for their options in their emissions and thus their economic pathways.

Three global paths

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2eq/

yr)

Peak in 2020

Peak in 2017

Peak in 2015

historical emissions

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Required non-Annex 1 path for three different Annex 1 levels of reductions

(for a Global Path that Peaks in 2015)

-40% by 2020

Cancun (lower)

Cancun (higher)

BAU (higher)

BAU (lower)

non-Annex 1 paths for three Annex 1 reduction levels (for 2015 global peak)

Observations

As can be expected, the required mitigation in non-Annex1 a countries is greater: if the global path peaks earlier. If Annex 1 reductions are less ambitious.

Conclusions

Maintaining a reasonable chance of keeping warming below 2°C requires rapid global reductions.

If peaking is not well before 2020, warming will not be “likely” to remain below 2°C.

Weak mitigation in Annex 1 countries will imply dramatic reductions in non-Annex 1 countries, for any of these global pathways.

Ambitious mitigation in Annex 1 countries (i.e., -40% by 2020) will also imply less dramatic reductions (by ~5 GtCO2eq in 2020)

…

Conclusion shared vision

Shift from developed countries effort to developing countires. This will keep developing countries poor.

So shared vision boils down to a political discussion it is not simply a scientific numbers only decision. So cannot have the numbers until you have a clear understanding of: Finance, technolgy and capacity building deliverables in the context of CBDR and Equity

Bottom line on Shared Vision

Options: give figure say 50% by 2050 and no context

Give figure and context: AI peaking, $ finance, tech for NAI.

So ultimately there are at least 5 numbers that must be taken account of not simply 2-3, as advocate by developed parties:

Global cut, say 50% by 2050 X cut for AI, 80-100%

Implied residual cut for NAI How much finance and technology for NAI Possible seven figure:

Equitable Access to sustainable development & Africa In the final analysis shared visions is

ultimately about how do you burden sharing of the remaining carbon space?

Hence the context for the numbers is the entire BAP and the convention.

EASD

Since Tanjin, the Africa group has been projecting this strategy. Calling for clear ideas about adaptation, finance, TT (beyond what is now in the tech mechanisms; targets); capacity building in addition to overall mitigation approach . All of these things impacts how development takes place now and into the future.

Since Cancun focus on equitable access to sustainable development

EASD

EASD is how to divide up the remaining atmospheric space (how do you divide up the Long term emissions reducion goal and the peaking year issues between AI and NAI

(Implies: Carbon budget) EASD is an integrated approach form long

term emission.

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… The balance in the UNFCCC …

Common commitments

Differentiated commitments

Balance of commitments

Sustainable development, in particular of developing countries,

within an enabling international economic system

Intra- and inter-generational equity

Respective capabilities

All countries

Mitigation (voluntary for developing countries)

Information provision and exchange

Cooperation in technology transfer, R&D, adaptation, education and training, GHG sink and reservoir conservation and management

Developed countries

Common commitments

+

Mitigation (mandatory)

Financing UNFCCC implementation

Financing adaptation

Technology transfer

Provide detailed information

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Meeting the E-D-E imperatives

Regional temperature

increase

Global temperature

increase

GHG concentra-tions in the atmosphere

Global carbon budget (2010-2050)

Annex I carbon share

Developed countries to take the

lead in cutting emissions

(existing UNFCCC obligation)

Non-Annex I carbon share

Bending emissions growth downward while keeping economic growth

curve upward

Adaptation impacts, costs and actions in

developing countries in context of sustainable

development

Mitigation costs and actions in

developing countries in context of sustainable

development

Developed countries provide finance,

technology transfer to developing countries to support mitigation

and adaptation actions in context of

sustainable development

(existing UNFCCC obligations)

Finance Finance

Technology Technology

Emission reductions Finance and Technology Adaptation

Equity and Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change

EASD

Issue: numbers first or Context first?

Partners and some developing countries want to set LTGoal and peak year before all the others are decided (offering the GCF, TM/TEC ).

The Africa group and many other developing countries, including the BASICs would like to see clear understanding and agreement of all aspects, including targts, operationalization in the framework of EASD.

Important link between GNP and emission so decoupling have strong implication for development

TT must go beyond trading arrangmetn to skills building and absorbitve capacity and development.

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Let’s be clear …

The climate negotiations are not an environmental negotiations. These are essentially negotiations over the development future of developing countries; over how global economic relationships and national economic futures will be shaped as a result of addressing and adapting to the inevitable impacts of climate change

Our countries’ industrialization and development future are at stake.

Africa has a significant role to play in highlighting the economic, trade and development implications of the possible results from the climate change negotiations

Mariama Williams

williams@southcentre.org www.southcentre.org

Tel: +41 22 791 80 50Fax: +41 22 798 85 31

17-19 Chemin du Champ d'Anier1209 Petit Saconnex, Geneva

Thank you