MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator

Update: Revising Start/Soak Relationships for Light-Duty Gaseous Emissions James Warila, Carl Fulper, Erin McCurry June 13, 2018

MOVES Review Work Group Meeting #8

Outline

• Background – Currently in MOVES

– Proposed revisions • Update to revisions presented at meeting (June 2017)

• Goal: update start/soak curves – Combine EPA and CARB data

• Analysis – PEMS results

– Dynamometer results

• Results – Compare PEMS, dyno results

– Development of revised curves

2

3

Background

• Currently in MOVES2014 – Start emissions calculated from FTP results

• “Cold Start” = Bag 1 – Bag 3 (g/start) – At “warm ambient” temperature

– “Operating mode” defined as “soak period” – Emission rates vary by soak period

• 0-6 min to 12+ hours

• Proposed update – Combine PEMS and dynamometer results

• PEMS testing by EPA – Presented at MRWG meeting, June 2017 – Updated with data for two additional vehicles

• Dyno testing by CARB – CARB test report: Page 117 of

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/downloads/emfac2017-volume-iii-technical-documentation.pdf

1.20

1.10

'

uu.•.•••••••••••••••i•• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••

1.00 ..

0.90 1:: (,:,

t;; 0.80 "C o 0.70 0 0

; 0.60

"' ti> 0 50 ~ . 0

.2 0.40 ~

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0

..... , ·······t·······

~ ... ~:.~. ~trr-: I ~~ •.• :•·····r·•·········~······················ .~~t,,,-~t - 1 1 . . .....•.. . . . ~ . --~', .. - ... -~,,· .. ········r ········ __ ·•~if•_·· __ 7 ___ ··· 1:.- ~ NOx '·································

·- .. ... .. . ' ·-f-· ~ CO

········r· ········:1,.,,.···· · . . t ... -A- HC

------+,,,,.····· ······························ ~~ ............ •.•·······•:•.•······ · ===-=-=~r;==!r~:::---r-;,~~~ ·7~ 480 600 240 360

·· ····1· ·····

120

Soak Time (minutes)

Soak Curves in MOVES2014

Soak Fractions Applied to Cold-Start Emissions (opModeID = 108) to Estimate Emissions for Shorter Soak Periods (opModeID = 101-107)

Source: Sabate, S. Methodology for Calculating and Redefining Cold and Hot Start Emissions. California Air Resources Board, El Monte, CA. March 1996. Cited IN: Glover, E.; Carey, P. Determination of Start Emissions as a Function of Mileage and Soak time for 1981-1993 Model-year Light-Duty Vehicles. EPA 420-R-01-058. November, 2001.

4

New Data

• EPA in-house project – Measurement method (PEMS)

• Repeat drives on same route in Ann Arbor, MI with different soak periods

• Instrument: Sensors SEMTECH-DS • Covered in June 2017 presentation

– 6 vehicles • Tier 2 (5) and Tier 3 (1)

• Data obtained from CARB – Used in update for EMFAC2017 – Measurement method

• Dynamometer cycle aggregates (no “second-by-second” data) • California Unified cycle- Phase 1

– 32 LEV-II vehicles

5

Data Quality Analysis

• EPA PEMS Results – As discussed in June 2017 presentation, ensured capture of start

operation • Evaluated catalyst and oil temperatures, along with cumulative

emissions

• CARB Dynamometer Results – Assign to MOVES soak periods

– Verified that emission levels were comparable to PEMS results

• Analysis – Average g/start for each vehicle for each soak time

• See next slides

6

EPA

-C) -,.,, C 2 0 ,.,,

.!!? E w t:: ~ 1 -en ~ -0 ~

0

0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 Soak Time (minutes)

+ AUDI 2010 A4 + HOND 2004 ACCORD DX + HOND 2009 FIT + TOTA 2007 SCION TC + 2009 CAMRY

+ BMW 2004 325i + HOND 2004 ACCORD LX + HYND 2006 SONATA + TOTA 2007 YARIS + 2009 EXPL

+ BMW 2005 325 i + HOND 2004 CRV + HYND 2007 ELANTRA + TOTA 2008 CAMRY XLE + 2009 OUTL

V h" I + CHRY 2007 CALIBER + HOND 2005 ACURA TL + MB 2005 C230 + TOTA 2008 ES350 + 2011 F150

e IC e + FORD 2004 FOCUS + HOND 2006 CIVIC + MB 2006 S500 + TOTA 2009 CAMRY + 2017 CAMRY

+ GM 2007 CTS + HOND 2006 ELEMENT + NISS 2009 SENTRA + TOTA 2009 COROLLA LE + 2017 F150

+ GM 2007 ION + HOND 2007 CIVI C + TOTA 2004 CAMRY LE + VOLK 2007 JETTA

+ GM 2008 MALIBU + HOND 2008 ACCORD + TOTA 2005 COROLLA + VOLV 2004 S60

THC: Average start emissions (g) by method and vehicle

7

EPA

2.0

-C) -,.,, C: 1.5 0 ,.,, ,.,, E W 1.0 ~ ns -Cl)

ns 0.5 -0 I-

0.0

0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 Soak Time (minutes)

+ AUDI 2010 A4 + HOND 2004 ACCORD DX + HOND 2009 FIT + TOTA 2007 SCION TC + 2009 CAMRY

+ BMW 2004 325i + HOND 2004 ACCORD LX + HYND 2006 SONATA + TOTA 2007 YARIS + 2009 EXPL

+ BMW 2005 325 i + HOND 2004 CRV + HYND 2007 ELANTRA + TOTA 2008 CAMRY XLE + 2009 OUTL

• + CHRY 2007 CALIBER + HOND 2005 ACURA TL + MB 2005 C230 + TOTA 2008 ES350 + 2011 F150

Vehicle + FORD 2004 FOCUS + HOND 2006 CIVIC + MB 2006 S500 + TOTA 2009 CAMRY + 2017 CAMRY

+ GM 2007 CTS + HOND 2006 ELEMENT + NISS 2009 SENTRA + TOTA 2009 COROLLA LE + 2017 F150

+ GM 2007 ION + HOND 2007 CIVIC + TOTA 2004 CAMRY LE + VOLK 2007 JETTA

+ GM 2008 MALIBU + HOND 2008 ACCORD + TOTA 2005 COROLLA + VOLV 2004 S60

NOx: Average start emissions (g) by method and vehicle

8

-C) -en C: 0 ·- 10 en en E w t:= J9 5 Cl)

n, -0 l-

o

0

PEMS EPA

200 400 600 0 200 400 600 Soak Time (minutes)

+ AUDI 2010 A4 + HOND 2004 ACCORD DX + HOND 2009 FIT + TOTA 2007 SCION TC + 2009 CAMRY

+ BMW 2004 325i + HOND 2004 ACCORD LX + HYND 2006 SONATA + TOTA 2007 YARIS + 2009 EXPL

+ BMW 2005 325 i + HOND 2004 CRV + HYND 2007 ELANTRA + TOTA 2008 CAMRY XLE + 2009 OUTL

• + CHRY 2007 CALIBER + HOND 2005 AC URA TL + MB 2005 C230 + TOTA 2008 ES350 + 2011 F150

Vehicle + FORD 2004 FOCUS + HOND 2006 CIVIC + MB 2006 S500 + TOTA 2009 CAMRY + 2017 CAMRY

+ GM 2007 CTS + HOND 2006 ELEMENT + NISS 2009 SENTRA + TOTA 2009 COROLLA LE + 2017 F150

+ GM 2007 ION + HOND 2007 CIVIC + TOTA 2004 CAMRY LE + VOLK 2007 JETTA

+ GM 2008 MALIBU + HOND 2008 ACCORD + TOTA 2005 COROLLA + VOLV 2004 S60

15

CO: Average start emissions (g) by method and vehicle

9

Developing Soak Ratios

• Average mass results – By vehicle – By operating mode

• Correct for running-exhaust emissions – By subtracting result for 0-6 minute soak period – By vehicle – By operating mode

• Average results across vehicles – Separately for EPA and CARB fleets

• Calculate intermediate ratios – Normalize all soak periods to “cold start” – By dividing by the opModeID 108 emissions

• Calculate final ratios – Combine CARB and EPA results as a weighted average – By number of vehicles in each soak period

10

0.9

0.3

0.0

0 200 400 Soak Time (minutes)

600

Source + CARB

+ EPA

+ MOVES + EPA+ CARB Weighted Average

(with respect to number of vehicles)

THC: Proposed Soak Ratios

11

1

0

0 200 400 Soak Time (minutes)

600

Source + CARB

+ EPA

+ MOVES + EPA+ CARB Weighted Average

(with respect to number of vehicles)

3

NOx: Proposed Soak Ratios

12

:.:: ~ ~

1.00

0.75

~ 0.50 ~ 0 en

0.25

0.00

0 200 400 600 Soak Time (minutes)

Source + CARB

+ EPA

+ MOVES + EPA+ CARB Weighted Average

(with respect to number of vehicles)

0

CO: Proposed Soak Ratios

13

Summary and Conclusions

• Start/soak relationships differ from older results – NOx emissions highest at shorter soak periods

• We propose to update MOVES rates – For model years 2004 and later

– Using revised soak curves based on PEMS and Dyno data • For HC, CO, NOx

• Use HC curve for particulate matter (PM) rates, as we have done for MOVES2014

– For “warm” to “hot” starts only (opModeID 101-107)

– NOT updating Cold-start rates themselves (opModeID 108) • Still based on FTP results

14

Extra Slides

15

'.2 C. E :;- 20-Q) Q) C.

Cf) Q)

u E Q)

>

10-

o-

200 0

Soak Route Speed Profile

400 Trip Counter (seconds)

600

30-

EPA Drive Route

16

80

70

60 J: -~' ... 50

'a 0 0 0 a. 00

30

20

0

0 -I

0 .20 0 400 600 800

Tine, s

1000 ]200

Figure 1. Californ ia Unified cyc le- Phase 1 + 2

1 00

Speed Trace California Unified Cycle

Phase 1

17