Update on Emissions Component of GCAP Phase 2 Project

David G. Streets Argonne National Laboratory

Science Team Meeting

Harvard University, October 12, 2007

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Contents

Update on recent emissions in China: NOx growth

Update on current Asian emissions: INTEX 2006 inventory

Update on future emissions for 2050

Improvements to current Hg emissions for China

Forecasting future global Hg emissions for 2050

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We have been developing annual NOx emission inventories for China, 1996-2004, to compare with satellite observations (Zhang et al., JGR, in press, 2007JD008684).

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We cannot replicate the exceptionally high growth rates reported by Richter et al. [Nature, 2005] (95%, 1996-2004), but we still get a 61% increase.

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We have been investigating the seasonal trends in emissions and satellite observations in China.

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Best-guess inventory scenario

Maximum inventory scenario

Winter Summer

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Incompatibility between current trends and long-term forecasts of NOx emissions in China

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SO2 emissions growth in China through 2006

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INTEX inventory for 2006 is now available at this website: http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA_new/index_16.html

NOx CO

PM2.5 SO2

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The new INTEX inventory includes SO2, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, BC, OC, NMVOC (several speciation mechanisms). No change to NH3 and CH4.

2006 INTEX-B Inventory

Unit: Gg of SO2 Power Industry Residential Transportation Total

China Total 18333 9725 2838 123 31020

Other East Asia Total 491 986 133 264 1874

Southeast Asia Total 2199 2419 449 412 5479

South Asia Total 3029 4558 525 648 8760

Asia Total 24051 17689 3945 1447 47133

2000 TRACE-P Inventory

Unit: Gg of SO2 Power Industry Residential Transportation Total

China Total 10029 7353 2512 409 20303

Other East Asia Total 613 1296 174 229 2313

Southeast Asia Total 1182 1285 387 295 3150

South Asia Total 3505 2430 591 570 7096

Asia Total 15329 12365 3665 1502 32862

2000 - 2006 Changes

Power Industry Residential Transportation Total

China Total 82.8% 32.3% 13.0% -69.8% 52.8%

Other East Asia Total -20.0% -24.0% -23.6% 15.4% -19.0%

Southeast Asia Total 86.1% 88.2% 16.0% 39.5% 74.0%

South Asia Total -13.6% 87.6% -11.2% 13.8% 23.5%

Asia Total 56.9% 43.0% 7.6% -3.7% 43.4%

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Future projections for 2050 are based on IPCC scenarios

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We follow the IMAGE (RIVM) regional nomenclature

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We have re-estimated future BC and OC emissions, including more source types and better matching to IMAGE sources. Anthropogenic BC emissions have increased, mainly in A1B.

EC Emissions: Gg/yr (Version 1.5)

18971834

3326

28113046

2802

45224160

4755

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

A1B A2 B1 B2 A1B A2 B1 B2

1996 2030 2050

Transport

Power

Industry

Residential

EC Emissions: Gg/yr (Version 3.0)

48275144

4950

33833850

5139

4197

2821

3444

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

A1B A2 B1 B2 A1B A2 B1 B2

1996 2030 2050

Transport

Power

Industry

Residential

Old

New

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Global mercury emissions, year 2000, 0.5° resolution (Wilson et al., Atmos. Environ., 2006)

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Hg emission estimates for China and uncertainty

In general, the uncertainty level has diminished over time, But, this is primarily due to decreased emissions from those Hg sources that have the largest uncertainty in both activity levels and emission factors, such as artisanal gold smelting, mercury mining, and battery/fluorescent lamp production.

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Best Estimates

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Projections of coal use and electricity demand for power plants in China

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h)Coal Electricity

1) Nationwide, coal-based electricity is projected to increase at an annual rate of 7.5% in 2003-2010, and 3.8% in 2010-2020.

2) As a result, coal use reaches 1.29 billion tons in 2010 and 1.77 billion tons in 2020.

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Expected penetration of FGD in China

2010: 58% nationwide

We assume the Hg removal efficiency of future plants to be: 74% (ESP+FGD)

2020: 67% nationwide

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Projected trends of mercury emissions in thepower sector in China out to 2020

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Hg

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Reduction by planned FGD

Reductions by S1 and S2

1) By 2010, penetration of FGD should keep Hg emissions close to the 2003 level. 2) By 2020, only faster penetration of new control technology combinations

(Activated Carbon Injection or SCR) can offset the increasing Hg emissions.

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We will follow our general approach for estimating future emissions of BC/OC to estimate future global mercury emissions

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We have detailed fuel/technology/world region profiles for the four main IPCC SRESTech Code Fuel1 Combustor/Control Canada USA

Central America

South America

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Eastern Africa

Residential 33378 218121 167410 199539 97470 450412 162794122 Agricultural Wastes General 0 0 0 0 465 5696 4296123 Animal Wastes General 0 0 0 1631 169 183988 1504899 Biofuel Fireplace 1503 12515 0 0 0 0 0

127 Biofuel Heating Stove 4510 37545 0 0 0 0 01 Biofuel Improved Cookstove 0 0 2434 3821 355 8439 4398

44 Biofuel Open Fire 0 0 14605 22926 2130 50632 26391134 Biofuel Stoker/No control 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 Biofuel Traditional Cookstove 0 0 31644 49674 4615 109703 57180124 Biofuel Total Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0152 Biofuel Charcoal Production 0 0 5176 36411 1096 34969 4031894 Briquettes General 0 0 14 0 0 4913 8381 Brown Coal General 18 0 0 0 0 636 084 Charcoal General 0 0 1202 1860 274 3865 588952 Coking Coal General 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

146 Diesel Fuel External Combustion 6000 17722 1844 2683 0 0 0147 Diesel Fuel Generator 0 0 1844 2683 37462 7425 858128 Hard Coal Heating Stove 100 2651 0 0 0 0 098 Hard Coal Open Fire 0 0 0 644 0 3872 0

120 Hard Coal Stoker/Cyclone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0121 Hard Coal Stoker/No control 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Just like with BC and OC, we will forecast future Hg emissions (never been done before), combining the BC/OC and China Hg forecasting experience.

Year 2000 Year 2050 A1B, A2, B1, B2

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Summary

Emissions growth has been high in Asia since 2000 and we can provide updated emission estimates for 2006 via the INTEX dataset.

We are working to expand our abilities to improve VOC speciation (which will change overall reactivity) and rapidly generate alternative schemes.

Only changes to future emissions right now are slightly increased BC and OC emissions from anthropogenic sources (no big change to biomass emissions).

We have emissions trend data for Hg emissions from China in recent years (growing fast like NOx).

We have forecast future Hg emissions from China. We have present-day global Hg emissions, updated for China. Also we

are checking natural emissions, re-emission, and compatibility with observations for China.

In this present project, we will combine experiences to estimate future global Hg emissions.