Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014,...
Transcript of Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014,...
![Page 1: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Update on BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts
Erich Strassner and Dave Wasshausen
Inforum Outlook ConferenceCollege Park, Maryland
December 11, 2014
![Page 2: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.bea.gov 2
Outline
▪ Fully Integrated Accounts
▪ Satellite Accounts
▪ Quarterly GDP by Industry
▪ Integrated GDP & Productivity Account at the Industry level
▪ Efforts to measure the economic impact of Global Value Chains
![Page 3: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
www.bea.gov 3
Integration of the National and Industry Economic Accounts
▪ 2014 comprehensive revision marks the first time that the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs) and National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) are fully consistent with one another
▪ Benchmark I‐O accounts establish both levels and commodity composition of GDP final use categories Provide critical information for estimating GDP (by extrapolation) for periods after benchmark years
▪ Fully consistent benchmark I‐O accounts
![Page 4: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
www.bea.gov 4
2014 Flexible Annual Revision
▪ Revised statistics beginning with 1997, including 2007 BM I‐O
▪ Fully consistent with NIPAs and ITAs
▪ Expanded industry detail
▪ Expanded final uses for fixed investment
![Page 5: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
www.bea.gov
2014 Flexible Annual Revision – Cont.
5
![Page 6: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Satellite Accounts
6
![Page 7: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.bea.gov
The Arts and Cultural ProductionSatellite Account (ACPSA)
“The positive value of arts and culture on society has been understood on a human level for millennia. With this new effort, we are now able to quantify the impact of arts and culture on GDP for the very first time.”
Penny PritzkerU.S. Secretary of Commerce
7
![Page 8: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
www.bea.gov
ACPSA—Continued
▪ Uses BEA’s I‐O framework to provide: Information on a select group of arts and cultural goods and services that are currently in the U.S. GDP accounts, but not clearly visible
A detailed accounting of the economic contribution of the arts and cultural sector
An estimate of arts and culture employment
8
![Page 9: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
www.bea.gov
GDP versus ACPSA Value Added
9
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
16,000.0
18,000.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$Billions
$Billions
Year
Core ACPSA Industry Value Added ‐ Right axis Supporting ACPSA Industry Value Added ‐ Right axis GDP (Current$) ‐ Left axis
![Page 10: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Travel and Tourism Satellite Account
10
![Page 11: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
www.bea.gov 11
Quarterly GDP by Industry Statistics for the United States
![Page 12: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Motivation
▪ Great Recession and subsequent recovery highlighted need for more “real‐time” data
▪ Supplement existing quarterly/monthly indicators of industry performance—such as employment, sales & shipments, profits, prices
▪ Comprehensive and consistent picture of industries’ overall performance Analyses of business cycle dynamics and the sources of U.S. economic growth
12
![Page 13: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Quarterly GDP by Industry
▪ Launched April 25th; 2005:I –2013:IV
▪ Available within 30 days after “3rd” release of GDP Feature real value added by industry Integrated statistics for gross output and intermediate inputs
22 major industry sectors to begin …
▪ Made possible with the expansion of source data, particularly for the services sector Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Indexes
13
![Page 14: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
www.bea.gov 14
Methodology: balanced input‐output framework and double deflation
Mining and Construction Manufacturing Trade and
Transportation UtilitiesFinance,
Insurance, and Real Estate
OtherPersonal
Consumption Expenditure
Private Fixed Investment
Change in Private
InventoriesNet Exports
Government Consumption
and Investment
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Trade and Transportation
Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and
Real Estate
Other
Compensation
Taxes on Production and
Imports
Gross Operating Surplus
Total Commodity Output and
Value Added
CO
MM
OD
ITIE
S
Total Industry Output and Final Uses
VALU
E AD
DED
FINAL USESINDUSTRIES
Adjusts during balancing
NIPA
final expenditures
A function of Gross Domestic Income
and Gross Output by Industry
Make table
![Page 15: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Comparisons with Real GDP
15
![Page 16: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
www.bea.gov
An Inside Look at U.S. Producers
▪ GDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
16
Goods sector rebounds — led by durable‐goods manufacturing
Services sector turns up – reflecting an upturn in the finance and insurance sector
![Page 17: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
www.bea.gov
An Inside Look ‐‐ Continued
17
![Page 18: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Future directions for quarterly statistics
▪ Expand industry detail from 22 to 71 ▪ Accelerate release to coincide with 3rdestimate of U.S. GDP
▪ Longer run: “Advance” release of GDP by industry? A 3rd, “production” measure of GDP?
18
![Page 19: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
www.bea.gov 19
Integrated GDP & Productivity Account at the Industry Level
![Page 20: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
www.bea.gov 20
Motivation
▪ Long‐standing call for statistics on the sources of growth Solow (1957), Denison (1967), Griliches and Jorgenson (1967) Postwar Recovery, Big Slump, IT Boom, the Great Recession “… differences between the BEA and BLS estimates have led many researchers to construct their own measures …” ‐Jorgenson and Landefeld (2006) in A New Architecture for the U.S.
National Accounts
▪ The Advisory Committee on Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century: A Report to the Secretary of Commerce (January 2008) “Develop annual, industry‐level measures of total factor productivity ...”
![Page 21: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
www.bea.gov
GDP integrated with productivity statistics
▪ Allows for integrated analysis on the sources of growth in the economy Jorgenson and Landefeld (2006) provided blueprint
for United States
Harper, Moulton, Rosenthal, and Wasshausen (2009) integrated account for nonfarm business
Fleck, Rosenthal, Russell, Strassner, and Usher (2013) integrated account for GDP at the industry level
Rosenthal, Russell, Samuels, Strassner and Usher (2014) incorporated 2013 comprehensive revision www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#integrated
21
![Page 22: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Big picture questions
▪ What are the industry sources of GDP and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth? For example, what is the role of manufacturing?
▪ What is the contribution of: Information‐communications‐technology to growth and productivity? Intellectual property products to growth and productivity?
22
![Page 23: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Sources of U.S. economic growth, 1998‐2012
23
![Page 24: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Sources of multifactor productivity growth, 1998‐2012
24
▪ Computers and electronic products accounts for about 50% of MFP growth!
![Page 25: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Industry sources of growth analysis
25
Q P Q P Q P Q P Q P Q PY Y K K L L X X VA VA X X
Requires an industry‐level production account Industry‐level outputs and inputs in current and constant prices
Symmetric treatment of outputs, intermediate inputs, and value added inputs
Consistent with aggregate GDP constructed within an Input‐Output Framework Gross output, intermediate input, value added: BEA Capital input: BLS, based on BEA Fixed Assets Labor input: Hours from BLS, Composition from BEA
![Page 26: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Gross output growth and sources
26
![Page 27: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Contributions to aggregate MFP by industry
27
![Page 28: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
www.bea.gov
Sources of U.S. economic growth
28
▪ Capital input accounted for about 60 percent of growth 50 percent due to IT‐using
industries
▪ Labor input accounted for a bit more than 15 percent
▪ MFP accounted for about 25 percent 60 percent due to IT‐producing
industries
1998‐2012GDP 2.02IT‐producing industries 0.31IT‐using industries 0.98Non‐IT industries 0.73
Capital input 1.19IT‐producing industries 0.04IT‐using industries 0.59Non‐IT industries 0.56
Labor input 0.36IT‐producing industries 0.00IT‐using industries 0.30Non‐IT industries 0.06
Multifactor productivity 0.47IT‐producing industries 0.27IT‐using industries 0.09Non‐IT industries 0.11
![Page 29: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
www.bea.gov 29
Efforts to measure the economic impact of Global Value Chains
![Page 30: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
www.bea.gov 30
How to measure impact of globalization?
▪ Increased need to assess impacts of globalization/global value chains (GVCs) on national economies
▪ One approach to measurement: Trade in Value Added (TiVA)‐led by OECD
▪ Requires global Supply‐Use tables National tables linked together through bilateral international trade flows
Extensions: New work looks to introduce firm‐level heterogeneity into National Supply‐Use tables E.g., ownership characteristics, exporter/nonexporter How much of value created is captured domestically or is repatriated?
![Page 31: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
www.bea.gov 31
OECD TiVA Example: China’s trade surplus with the US?
![Page 32: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
www.bea.gov 32
BEA Engagement: International working groups
▪ United Nations Statistical Commission “Friends of the Chair” on trade and economic globalization Handbook on Extended International Accounts Establishment of Work Group akin to that for National Economic Accounts (ISWGNA)
▪ OECD Expert Group on “Extended” Supply‐Use Tables Introduce firm‐level heterogeneity to fine‐tune TiVA statistics; 2‐year time horizon
▪ APEC TiVA Technical Group Consistent goals to that of OECD but for APEC member countries (20); 4‐year time horizon
![Page 33: Update on BEA’s Industry Economic AccountsGDP increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. 16 Goods sector rebounds —led](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fd9cdd19b639b54001f2ec7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
www.bea.gov 33
BEA Engagement: Projects to enhance relevance of BEA statistics for GVC analysis—cont.
▪ Industry Accounts Supply‐Use tables consistent with International guidelines Research to assess Import Use table assumptions using data on
U.S. multinational enterprises Estimate import use tables that reflect data by major trade
partner
▪ Development of a North American Regional Supply Chain Model Proposed by the USITC in collaboration with BEA, Statistics
Canada, and INEGI (Mexico Bureau of Statistics)
▪ Extensions to introduce firm‐level heterogeneity Short run: “Proof of Concept” project based on comparisons of
published enterprise data by BEA and by IRS Statistics of Income Longer‐run: BEA‐Census link projects on multinational
enterprises, trade in goods and services, and establishment‐level data