Natural Flow and Reach Gain Forecasting for Upper Snake

UpdateFebruary 11, 2015

Typical TFCC Usage Pattern (2013)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

3/1/2013 4/1/2013 5/1/2013 6/1/2013 7/1/2013 8/1/2013 9/1/2013 10/1/2013

CFS

Blkft-Neeley RG from WD1 Accounting WD1 TFCC Nat Flow Div WD1 TFCC Total Div

Storage Used

Runoff

RNF passing Blkft

Storage Date: June 18

2014 Precipitation at TWF

4.8 inches in August (average is 0.48 inches)

August precipitation

2014 Usage Pattern

2014 Storage Diversion

June 18

Forecasting Models

PredictandDate of Forecast

March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15

Storage Date

Variables HeiseQUP_AftonWY HeiseQU

02N37E02ABA1SpringCrHeiseQU

08S24E31DAC109S25E03CAC1P_AftonCYSnow_AF

StatisticsR2

adj = 0.801SEest = 11.0 days

R2adj = 0.755

SEest = 12.2 daysR2

adj = 0.795SEest = 11.2 days

R2adj = 0.827

SEest = 11.6 days

Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date

VariablesP_Afton_WYP_AhtiHeiseQU

03N37E12BDB108S25E36DAA109S25E03CAC1HeiseQU

02N37E02ABA109S25E03CAC1SpringCrHeiseQU

08S25E36DAA1Snow_AFHeiseQU

StatisticsR2

adj = 0.752SEest = 46,373 af

R2adj = 0.709

SEest = 50,178 afR2

adj = 0.747SEest = 46,846 af

R2adj = 0.753

SEest = 52,017 af

Diversion Deficit

VariablesP_Alty, P_RiwiP_RxgiHeiseQU

02N37E02ABA109S25E03CAC1SpringCrSnow_AFHeiseQU

09S25E03CAC108S24E31DAC1SpringCrP_AftonCYReservoirFill

02N37E02ABA160d avgP_AftonReservoirFill

StatisticsR2

adj = 0.798SEest = 28,278 af

R2adj = 0.787

SEest = 31,403 afR2

adj = 0.787SEest = 31,403 af

R2adj = 0.817

SEest = 30,285 af

Calibration period: 1991-2010

Storage Date Prediction

July 2

July 10 - 15

Calib

ratio

n

Veri

ficati

on

Natural Flow Diversion Prediction

399,400af

236,000 af

Calib

ratio

n

Veri

ficati

on

344,200af

Deficit Prediction

240,118 af

97,600 af

Calib

ratio

n

Veri

ficati

on

246,780 af

161,000 af

Comparison (Preliminary Numbers)Storage Date

Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date

Actual ModelsJuly 10 (Mar)

July 2 July 13 (Apr)July 14 (May)July 15 (Jun)[June prediction based on avg of 3

models]

Actual Models399,442 (Mar)

344,200 ac-ft 269,500 (Apr)280,800 ac-ft 290,400 (May)without August storms 236,000 (Jun)

Comparison (preliminary numbers)Deficit

Actual Model - best159,500 (Mar)

97,600 ac-ft 240,100 (Apr)161,000 ac-ft 196,446 (May)without August storms 246,800 (Jun)

Comparison of Heise regression with Alternate

Calib

ratio

n

Veri

ficati

on

ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains - Nr Blackfoot to Neeley

ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains – Neeley to Minidoka

Conclusion / Next StepsRe-calibrate models with latest data and with

wells that were not discontinued in 2010