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Ranges (Up till 11.30am HKT) Currency Currenc y EURUSD 1.0912-63 EURJPY 135.15-86 USDJPY 123.74-97 EURGBP 0.6990- 0.7008 GBPUSD 1.5609-41 USDSGD 1.3649-83 USDCHF 0.9517-40 USDTHB 34.17-23 AUDUSD 0.7354-90 USDKRW 1145.9- 1150.0 NZDUSD 0.6535- 0.6604 USDTWD 31.07-30 USDCAD 1.2911-42 USDCNH 6.2136-67 AUDNZD 1.1182- 1.1261 XAU 1146.5- 1149.0 Key Headlines ◊ Greek parliament voted in favour of the third bailout; final tally was 299-Yes, 64-No, 6-Present. The deal was backed by two thirds of the parliament but PM Alexis Tsipras has suffered heavy losses (40 MPs) in his own Syriza party. ◊ So what next? Greek MPs need to approve measures to unlock the third bailout worth €86bn over three years. Today July 16, Eurogroup teleconference at 10.00am CET. Also Dutch parliament will be addressing Greece, Estonian Parliament will vote on third bailout for Greece. Tomorrow, July 17, German Bundestag, Finnish and Austrian parliaments are to vote on Greek bailout. Other Eurozone members do not need parliament approval. ◊ Taken off The Guardian: A government spokesman has said that the priority is to complete the bailout, rather than worry about internal divisions. This explains why initially Greek vote was about approving the third bailout. Now that is out of the way, they will push for reforms and fight internal resistances. FX Flows While market paid attention to the voting in Greece, New Zealand released its Q2 inflation data. Quarter CPI came out at 0.4%, which was better than previous quarter’s -0.3% but versus expectations of 0.5%. Year-on-year was in line at 0.3% from 0.1%. Kiwi fell from 0.6590 to 0.6560. Bounce was limited; the pair later trotted down to 0.6535. Euro had a brief moment of optimism. When the initial tally of Greek “Yes” vote came though, Euro jumped to 1.0963 from 1.0947. EurJpy was then sold as we approached the Tokyo open, sending EurUsd into the thirties. Selling of Euros continued into Tokyo open and I’m told they came leveraged names. Euro got to 1.0912, there are stops mentioned within 1.0900-10 but bids below 1.0885. There should be some momentum sellers into 1.0940 and talk of Euro offers above 1.1000 belonging macro names. UsdJpy tested 123.97 again in Asia and its clear sellers amassed at and beyond 124.00. Besides Japanese names selling, there are some offers linked to a 124.00 option expiry NY cut. Japanese sold EurJpy and UsdJpy backed off, just a little. Bids are reported at 123.50-60. Aussie has been side lined today. Move in Euro and Aud have failed to may an impact on AudUsd. Am told that some speculative trades have been put into long AudNzd and short EurAud. According to The Guardian, Greek government spokesman said that the priority is to complete the bailout, rather than worry about internal divisions. This explains why initially Greek vote was about approving the third bailout. Now that is out of the way, they These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness. Copyright © 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Transcript of Untitled

Ranges (Up till 11.30am HKT) CurrencyCurrency

EURUSD1.0912-63EURJPY135.15-86

USDJPY123.74-97EURGBP0.6990-0.7008

GBPUSD1.5609-41USDSGD1.3649-83

USDCHF0.9517-40USDTHB34.17-23

AUDUSD0.7354-90USDKRW1145.9-1150.0

NZDUSD0.6535-0.6604USDTWD31.07-30

USDCAD1.2911-42USDCNH6.2136-67

AUDNZD1.1182-1.1261XAU1146.5-1149.0

Key Headlines

Greek parliament voted in favour of the third bailout; final tally was 299-Yes, 64-No, 6-Present. The deal was backed by two thirds of the parliament but PM Alexis Tsipras has suffered heavy losses (40 MPs) in his own Syriza party. So what next? Greek MPs need to approve measures to unlock the third bailout worth 86bn over three years. Today July 16, Eurogroup teleconference at 10.00am CET. Also Dutch parliament will be addressing Greece, Estonian Parliament will vote on third bailout for Greece. Tomorrow, July 17, German Bundestag, Finnish and Austrian parliaments are to vote on Greek bailout. Other Eurozone members do not need parliament approval. Taken off The Guardian: A government spokesman has said that the priority is to complete the bailout, rather than worry about internal divisions. This explains why initially Greek vote was about approving the third bailout. Now that is out of the way, they will push for reforms and fight internal resistances. FX FlowsWhile market paid attention to the voting in Greece, New Zealand released its Q2 inflation data. Quarter CPI came out at 0.4%, which was better than previous quarters -0.3% but versus expectations of 0.5%. Year-on-year was in line at 0.3% from 0.1%. Kiwi fell from 0.6590 to 0.6560. Bounce was limited; the pair later trotted down to 0.6535. Euro had a brief moment of optimism. When the initial tally of Greek Yes vote came though, Euro jumped to 1.0963 from 1.0947. EurJpy was then sold as we approached the Tokyo open, sending EurUsd into the thirties. Selling of Euros continued into Tokyo open and Im told they came leveraged names. Euro got to 1.0912, there are stops mentioned within 1.0900-10 but bids below 1.0885. There should be some momentum sellers into 1.0940 and talk of Euro offers above 1.1000 belonging macro names. UsdJpy tested 123.97 again in Asia and its clear sellers amassed at and beyond 124.00. Besides Japanese names selling, there are some offers linked to a 124.00 option expiry NY cut. Japanese sold EurJpy and UsdJpy backed off, just a little. Bids are reported at 123.50-60. Aussie has been side lined today. Move in Euro and Aud have failed to may an impact on AudUsd. Am told that some speculative trades have been put into long AudNzd and short EurAud. According to The Guardian, Greek government spokesman said that the priority is to complete the bailout, rather than worry about internal divisions. This explains why initially Greek vote was about approving the third bailout. Now that is out of the way, they will push for reforms and fight internal resistances. Now these Greek MPs needed to approve measures including:

The ratification of the Eurozone summit statement

VAT changes including a top rate of 23% to take in processed food and restaurants and; a 13% rate to cover fresh food, energy bills, water and hotel stays; and a 6% rate for medicines and books

The abolition of the VAT discount of 30% for Greek islands

A corporation tax rise from 26% to 29% for small companies

A luxury tax rise on big cars, boats and swimming pools

And end to early retirement by 2022 and a retirement age increase to 67AsiansUsd/Asia, with exception of UsdMyr, opened up bid. UsdKrw at 1147.5, UsdSgd at 1.3660, UsdThb at 34.18. Only UsdMyr stayed at 3.8050/80. We suspect the agents are on the offer. Key Singapore data released this morning. The June NODE rose more than expected, electronic exports jumped 7.6% from -2.5%. All good for Singapore but UsdSgd managed to hold well due to softer Euro. Market talked about good buying by both macro and technical names lined up below 1.3640. Most speculators are targeting UsdSgd 1.38-1.39. Ringgit agents have been persistent capping onshore spot UsdMyr at 3.8080. NDF market eased on back of this and the 1-month points between NDF and spot settling around 90-120. Broad Usd strength provided UsdKrw firm tone. Share price of Daewoo Shipbuilding continue to slide (fell 7.7% on open). Another day of stable fixing and USDCNH remains within this 6.21-handle. Shanghai Composite Index opened at -1.24%, extended to -3% then recovered into positive territory. One note from Twitter said Chinese authority found evidence of foreign trading firms have transferred money illegally from trading accounts to capital market to short stocks and futures. Who said what

Greece Tsipras: I am not resigning, this government is not resigning Greece Tsipras: Vows to battle oligarchs, tax evasion and corruption Greece Tsipras: Will take responsibility for mistakes committed in this fight Greece Tsipras: Greece needs debt restructuring to exit the crisis. German Bild: German government still holds to possible Greek exit from Euro South Korea Finance Minister Choi: Domestic demand declining fast in Korea From Guardian: Greece State TV reports that a cabinet reshuffle is just hours away.News & Data

New Zealand June BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI at 55.2 from 51.5 (revised 52.0) New Zealand Q2 CPI Q/Q rose to 0.4% from -0.3% (exp. +0.5%) New Zealand Q2 CPI Y/Y at 0.3% vs +0.1% (exp. 0.3%) Singapore June Non-Oil Domestic Exports M/M fells 2.4% from -3.1% Singapore June Non-Oil Domestic Exports Y/Y rose 4.7% from -0.2% Singapore June Electronic Exports Y/Y jumped 7.6% from -2.5% Greg Ip in WSJ: Greeces Lessons for an Indebted World

Sovereign defaults are like cockroaches: Theres seldom just one. Greeces debts are so high, its recession so deep and its economy so uncompetitive, its easy to play down the lessons it offers to the rest of the world. But while Greece is exceptional, the entire world is suffering from an overhang of debt. Since 2007, public debt in advanced economies (including national, state and local governments) has risen by 35 percentage points of total economic output, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. In many countries it has risen by far more: 47 points in Italy, 50 in Britain, 63 in Japan, 83 in Portugal.http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-lessons-for-an-indebted-world-1436982341?mod=wsj_nview_latestFT: Tsipras wins Greek vote backing bailout

Greeces parliament on Thursday backed a slew of fresh austerity measures demanded by the countrys creditors, clearing the way for talks to begin on a fresh 86bn bailout package to prevent the country crashing out of the eurozone. But a rebellion inside the ruling coalition that saw 38 government MPs not back the measures raises fears that prime minister Alexis Tsipras may struggle to retain control of the government and his ruling Syriza party. The fierce backlash from senior members of his leftwing, anti-austerity party suggest Mr Tsipras will have to reshuffle his cabinet to keep Syriza together.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/db4d2f04-2b05-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3fixAwELLWSJ: Greeces Parliament Passes Austerity Measures Required for Bailout

Greeces Parliament passed early Thursday a crucial set of austerity measures required for a eurozone bailout package. The measures were supported by 229 lawmakers in the nations 300-seat Parliament. From a total of 149 Syriza members, 32 voted against the deal, six abstained and one was absent from the vote on measures that would result in 9 billion ($9.9 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases over the next three years.http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-parliament-passes-austerity-measures-required-for-bailout-1437002734?mod=e2twCNA: Eurogroup to hold conference call on Thursday on Greek bailout

Euro zone finance ministers will hold a conference call to discuss Greece on Thursday at 1000am CET, the spokesman for Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chairman of the finance ministers, said on Wednesday. "Confirmation just went out: Eurogroup teleconference tomorrow 10 AM Greece," Dijsselbloem's spokesman Michel Reijns said on Twitter. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/eurogroup-to-hold-confere/1987600.htmlAmbrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: EMU brutality in Greece has destroyed the trust of Europe's Left

The EU establishment henceforth faces what it has always feared: a political war on two fronts at once.

It is long been fighting an expanding coaltion of free marketeers, parliamentary "souverainistes", anti-immigrant populists on the Right. Its has now lost its remaining emotional hold on the Left after the scorched-earth treatment of Greece over the past five months - culminating in the vindictive decision to impose yet harsher terms on this crushed nation just days after its cri de coeur in a landslide referendum.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11742624/EMU-brutality-in-Greece-has-destroyed-the-trust-of-Europes-Left.htmlTelegraph: Alexis Tsipras prepared to step down as parliament set to pass punishing austerity measuresGreece's lawmakers gathered for a midnight vote on reforms that would raise VAT, cut pensions spending and reform the country's statistics body. The measures were set to pass on the support of Greece's main opposition parties, but be rejected by around 30 to 50 of the ruling Syriza government's MPs. I am prime minister because I have a parliamentary group that supports me. If I do not have its support, it will be difficult to be prime minister the day after, the Greek premier reportedly told his party members.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11742127/Greek-parliament-bail-out-vote-Tsipras-resigns.htmlWSJ - IMF Chief: Greek Bailout Talks a Colossal Challenge Going Forward

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said she still had hope the eurozone would provide Greece with a substantial restructuring of the countrys debt, but warned of difficult negotiations as officials seek to complete a bailout deal in the weeks ahead. Ms. Lagardes comments come a day after the fund warned in a report that Greece needed much more debt relief than European officials have so far consideredan apparent effort to pressure Germany into concrete commitments on debt restructuring.http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-chief-greek-bailout-talks-a-colossal-challenge-going-forward-1436997435MarketWatch: Violent clashes erupt with Greek Parliament set to vote on bailoutAnti-austerity clashes erupted on the streets of Athens as the Greek Parliament prepared to vote late Wednesday on a bailout agreement struck early Monday with the country's international creditors. The conflict comes as Parliament is expected to approve a deal, which goes far beyond conditions rejected by Greek voters in a July 5 referendum.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/violent-clashes-erupt-as-greece-parliament-set-to-vote-on-bailout-2015-07-15?dist=afterbellTelegraph: British taxpayers 'protected' as Osborne strikes deal on Greek loans

British taxpayers will not be left exposed for another Greek bailout, George Osborne hopes, under a compromise struck with Jean-Claude Juncker. The Chancellor is prepared to back the European Commission presidents controversial plan to revive a mothballed bailout programme that draws in the entire EU, in exchange for guarantees that British liabilities will be underwritten to protect UK taxpayers.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11742773/British-taxpayers-protected-as-Osborne-strikes-deal-on-Greek-loans.htmlWSJ: Chinas Uneasy EconomyBeijing announced Wednesday that Chinas economy grew 7% in the second quarter, beating expectations and matching official targets for the year. The apparent boosters of second-quarter growth were housing sales, which rose from their low base last year, and the bull market, which delivered huge fees to brokerages and other financial firms. But those fees wont last, and most indicators were predictably down: Industrial output grew at the slowest pace on record and retail sales slowed, as did investment in fixed assets such as factories.http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-uneasy-economy-1437002595?mod=wsj_nview_latestWSJ: China Market a Bad Casino, Hedge Fund Managers Say

Hedge fund managers took a gloomy view on China Wednesday despite new assurances from Beijing about the stability of the worlds second-largest economy. It looks worse to me than 2007 in the United States, said William Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. Much worse. Mr. Ackman was among a cluster of investors, including Jeffrey Gundlach of mutual fund giant DoubleLine Capital LP, to flash warning signs on China during the annual Delivering Alpha conference in New York.http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-market-a-bad-casino-hedge-fund-managers-say-1436993911These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness. Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.