Unofficial Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10 ... › static › upload › bac › 52...
Transcript of Unofficial Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10 ... › static › upload › bac › 52...
Unofficial
Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10, 2019 – 10:30 AM
Present: Charlotte J. Nash, Jace Brooks, Ben Ku, Marlene M. Fosque Absent: Tommy Hunter
1. County Administration
ARC Demographics Mike Alexander, Director of the Atlanta Regional Commission’s Center for Livable Communities, provided demographic information, an overview of the Atlanta Region Plan’s Forecast, Livable Centers Initiative, regional performance measures, and the Regional Housing Strategy. No official action taken.
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 1October 10, 2019 Cherokee County
Gwinnett County 2019
Mike AlexanderDirector, Center for Livable
Communities Atlanta Regional Commission
https://www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update/
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 3
www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Videow
ww
.gap
min
der
.org 218 Years of World History in 60 Seconds
Color Code (World Regions)
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
1.85
1.78
1.87 1.87
1.791.75 1.75
1.721.66
2.55
2.19 2.18
2.031.97
1.88 1.86 1.83 1.82
2.00
1.80
1.89
1.78
1.69 1.681.65
1.69
1.60
2.96
2.802.73
2.79
2.35
2.152.12 2.09
2.01
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2016 2017
US Fertility
White N.H. Black N.H. Asian Hispanic
The Future: Fertility Trends
Replacement Level
St. Replacement Birth Level 2.1
htt
ps:
//w
ww
.cd
c.go
v/n
chs/
dat
a/n
vsr/
nvs
r67
/nvs
r67
_0
8-5
08
.pd
f
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Global Aging VIDEO Kodokushi
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Changing Global Growth Patterns
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/
Looking to the year 2100 Fertility Rate continues to decline 2.5 to 1.9-Median Age increase to 42 from 31 (2018) from 24 (1950)-Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth-Europe and Latin America are both expected to have declining populations by 2100-Asian population is expected to increase from 4.6 billion in 2020 to 5.3 billion in 2055, then start to decline-In the Northern America region, migration from the rest of the world is expected to be the primary driver of continued population growth-Six countries are projected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth-India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2027-Between 2020 and 2100, 90 countries are expected to lose population-Africa is projected to overtake Asia in births by 2060-The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to have the oldest population of any world region by 2100
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Clayton
Henry
Butts
Douglas
City of Atlanta
DeKalb
Paulding
Rockdale
Coweta
Fayette
Fulton
Cobb
Cherokee
Gwinnett
ARC Region
12.7%
20.5%
21.6%
21.8%
21.8%
23.1%
23.9%
26.9%
28.0%
28.2%
28.6%
29.8%
30.8%
37.8%
28.0%
5.0%
5.5%
2.8%
3.5%
5.1%
3.2%
4.2%
4.7%
4.8%
5.5%
2.8%
7.3%
1.8%
4.5%
4.3%
21.7%
5.3%
3.2%
5.5%
7.5%
8.2%
6.2%
10.2%
4.3%
2.5%
6.5%
7.3%
3.3%
5.3%
7.1%
21.9%
21.3%
25.6%
33.0%
24.0%
19.7%
25.2%
18.5%
22.3%
22.4%
20.9%
10.5%
14.8%
14.5%
18.3%
11.5%
4.3%
4.0%
5.0%
4.7%
6.5%
8.7%
6.2%
9.3%
9.5%
4.4%
7.5%
6.3%
9.8%
7.1%
8.0%
9.3%
12.8%
12.5%
9.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
8.5%
14.0%
12.0%
9.5%
12.5%
7.0%
9.7%
7.2%
16.3%
8.8%
5.0%
7.3%
10.3%
7.7%
9.7%
10.3%
5.2%
6.7%
9.5%
12.5%
7.3%
8.7%
4.7%
5.0%
9.6%
2.3%
9.5%
9.5%
8.5%
9.7%
5.0%
5.0%
9.2%
5.3%
5.8%
9.0%
7.6%
Transp Race Relations Economy Crime Public Health Public Education Human Services Taxes Other DK
Biggest Problem Facing Residents in Metro (Results by County)--MAS 2019
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
The Region’s Plan Forecast
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+Source: Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB (Q2, 2018)
Housing Affordability and Transportation Costs
38.9
58.0
74.1
66.164.6
45.2
58.7
63.8
41.6
61.3
5.5
32.8
57.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
% of Homes Affordable to Median Income Household, Q2 2018
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mia
mi
Riv
ers
ide
Los
An
gele
s
Orl
and
o
San
Die
go
Tam
pa
Sacr
ame
nto
Ph
oe
nix
Atl
anta
De
tro
it
Ch
arlo
tte
Po
rtla
nd
San
An
ton
io
Cle
vela
nd
Ne
w Y
ork
Ch
icag
o
Ph
ilad
elp
hia
St. L
ou
is, M
O
Dal
las
Ho
ust
on
Pit
tsb
urg
h
San
Fra
nci
sco
Seat
tle
Cin
cin
nat
i, O
H
Kan
sas
Cit
y, M
O
Bo
sto
n
De
nve
r
Bal
tim
ore
Min
nea
po
lis
Was
hin
gto
n
Percent of Income Spend on Housing + Transportation Costs for Moderate Income HHs
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Neighborhood Home Price Change 2013 to 2018
Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data from 2013 & 2018
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Sales Price Per SQ Ft 2018
Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data 2018
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
National Office SpaceMarket totals (CBD and
Suburban)Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net
absorption(Including Subleases)
YTD total net absorption (Including Subleases)
YTD total net absorption (% of
Inventory)
Total vacancy(s.f.)
Total vacancy(%)
Current quarter direct average marketed rent
($p.s.f.)
San Francisco 78,474,725 799,612 2,424,779 3.1% 4,361,570 6% $ 92.59 New York 456,733,421 1,848,372 6,755,285 1.5% 33,249,446 7% $ 85.16 San Francisco Peninsula 29,890,661 758,523 1,545,550 5.2% 3,047,806 10% $ 70.66 Silicon Valley 72,274,038 501,044 4,227,964 5.8% 8,667,271 12% $ 56.64 Oakland-East Bay 52,634,530 187,754 435,547 0.8% 6,553,008 13% $ 49.56 Austin 55,134,649 726,044 2,677,189 4.9% 4,800,713 9% $ 48.39 Los Angeles 188,658,532 810,873 2,695,655 1.4% 25,260,855 13% $ 44.28 Seattle-Bellevue 98,467,553 885,213 2,693,022 2.7% 9,073,968 9% $ 43.99 Washington, DC 336,914,194 341,002 2,554,474 0.8% 53,664,923 16% $ 42.69 Boston 167,667,375 611,028 2,327,213 1.4% 20,070,135 12% $ 41.49 Miami 38,363,936 90,746 341,325 0.9% 5,924,188 15% $ 41.20 Orange County 97,730,884 (88,617) 936,692 1.0% 13,289,158 14% $ 37.39 San Diego 80,150,052 142,214 629,694 0.8% 9,208,611 12% $ 37.20 West Palm Beach 19,762,184 5,423 95,446 0.5% 2,987,529 15% $ 36.87 Fairfield County 41,832,287 160,789 (345,403) -0.8% 9,551,707 23% $ 34.62 North San Francisco Bay 22,180,304 109,945 314,247 1.4% 2,745,061 12% $ 34.53 Fort Lauderdale 21,835,418 209,626 267,956 1.2% 3,036,492 14% $ 34.30 Chicago 248,331,043 908,500 2,264,192 0.9% 38,950,263 16% $ 33.87 Portland 57,899,054 234,761 626,122 1.1% 6,934,130 12% $ 33.37 Nashville 38,493,679 228,955 353,317 0.9% 4,271,135 11% $ 32.64 Houston 169,814,234 428,853 297,915 0.2% 40,192,095 24% $ 31.40 Tampa Bay 37,217,154 242,391 368,674 1.0% 5,116,183 14% $ 30.70 Charlotte 53,119,392 1,000,685 2,587,348 4.9% 6,113,777 12% $ 30.66 Denver 114,552,387 349,945 1,490,968 1.3% 15,497,800 14% $ 30.42 Atlanta 149,058,414 (210,169) 378,905 0.3% 26,866,216 18% $ 29.83 Minneapolis 83,669,585 (114,234) 494,711 0.6% 12,682,877 15% $ 29.07 Dallas 188,894,365 454,377 1,969,021 1.0% 38,955,613 21% $ 28.86
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Rents per SF Trends by Submarket: 2010Q1 and 2019Q1
$17.98
$17.98
$18.17
$18.35
$18.36
$18.37
$18.41
$19.16
$19.28
$19.43
$21.07
$21.55
$23.18
$23.69
$24.69
$26.06
$28.48
$28.69
$30.28
$35.92
$35.92
$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00
I-20 East/ Conyers
North Clayton Airport
Douglasville
East Cobb
Fayette Coweta
South Clayton/ Henry
Cherokee County
Norcross/ Peachtree Corners
Lawrenceville Lilburn
Kennesaw Town Center
Duluth Suwanee Buford
Chamblee Doraville N Druid Hills
North Fulton/ Forsyth
Decatur
Cumberland Galleria
Central Business District
Central Perimeter
Lower Buckhead
Northside Drive GA Tech
Upper Buckhead
Midtown Pershing Pt
2019 2010Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis
Sou
rce:
Co
Sta
r; A
ll C
om
ple
ted
or
Un
der
Co
nst
ruct
ion
sin
ce 2
01
0
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Sou
rce:
Co
Sta
r; A
ll C
om
ple
ted
or
Un
der
Co
nst
ruct
ion
sin
ce 2
01
0Office Net New Space(SF) by Submarket: 2010Q1 to 2019Q1
Top Sub-Markets
-206,601
-205,146
23,698
55,974
105,757
157,056
213,286
213,581
218,885
233,216
236,858
241,663
282,003
295,278
411,645
520,808
658,117
842,142
1,410,572
1,488,752
1,993,669
-500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
Norcross/ Peachtree Corners
CBD ATL
Douglasville
Lower Buckhead
I-20 East/ Conyers
Kennesaw Town Center
South Clayton/ Henry
Lawrenceville/ Lilburn
Chamblee/ Doraville/ N Druid
Fayette Coweta
East Cobb
North Clayton Airport
Cherokee County
Decatur
Cumberland/ Galleria
Northside Drive/ GA Tech
Duluth/ Suwanee/ Buford
Upper Buckhead
North Fulton/ Forsyth
Central Perimeter
Midtown Pershing Point
Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis
ESRI INFOGROUP Data: Atlanta Jobs before EMORY Annexation: 450,620After with Emory:530,784New Daily Population
2018 Total Daytime Population 853,471 Workers 614,905 Residents 238,566
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Rents per SF Trends by Submarket: 2010Q1 and 2019Q1
$17.98
$17.98
$18.17
$18.35
$18.36
$18.37
$18.41
$19.16
$19.28
$19.43
$21.07
$21.55
$23.18
$23.69
$24.69
$26.06
$28.48
$28.69
$30.28
$35.92
$35.92
$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00
I-20 East/ Conyers
North Clayton Airport
Douglasville
East Cobb
Fayette Coweta
South Clayton/ Henry
Cherokee County
Norcross/ Peachtree Corners
Lawrenceville Lilburn
Kennesaw Town Center
Duluth Suwanee Buford
Chamblee Doraville N Druid Hills
North Fulton/ Forsyth
Decatur
Cumberland Galleria
Central Business District
Central Perimeter
Lower Buckhead
Northside Drive GA Tech
Upper Buckhead
Midtown Pershing Pt
2019 2010Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis
Sou
rce:
Co
Sta
r; A
ll C
om
ple
ted
or
Un
der
Co
nst
ruct
ion
sin
ce 2
01
0
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
ARC DRAFT S16 Forecast (21-County)
5,697,710
8,600,731
3,556,792
4,729,664
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
43
20
44
20
45
20
46
20
47
20
48
20
49
20
50
Population Employment
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
State Growth
Sou
rce:
Wo
od
s a
nd
Po
ole
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
120 Years of Growth
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
All Metro Counties Series 16 Forecast Draft
VideoSo
urc
e: C
ensu
s, A
RC
Fo
reca
st S
16
Dra
ft 2
05
0
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
County Age Forecasts VIDEO
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
2015 – 2050 Population Forecasts by County
45,258 62,181
41,847
138,922 119,050
294,463
76,609
8,662
277,149
51,747 36,703
227,918
462,735 588,919
88,542
152,707
48,116 100,935
24,073 27,428
37,719
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000Total Population Growth
Total Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
Sou
rce:
AR
C T
he
Reg
ion
’s P
lan
Fo
reca
st (
20
19
) Se
ries
16
DR
AFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Population
Change, per mi² 2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Industry Snapshot in Atlanta MSA, 2019q1 JobsEQCurrent 10-Year History 10-Year Forecast
NAICS Industry EmplAvg Ann Wages LQ Empl Change Ann %
Total Demand Exits Transfers
Empl Growth
Ann % Growth
722 Food Services and Drinking Places 240,125 $19,239 1.09 55,963 2.7% 460,437 188,210 237,829 34,399 1.3%561 Administrative and Support Services 235,102 $40,831 1.33 45,668 2.2% 329,094 124,538 167,465 37,091 1.5%621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 133,586 $65,364 0.90 42,381 3.9% 174,862 63,169 68,562 43,131 2.8%
541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 231,483 $88,868 1.20 39,417 1.9% 259,318 80,519 135,002 43,797 1.7%622 Hospitals 100,022 $62,151 0.85 24,395 2.8% 94,716 39,645 42,096 12,974 1.2%
551 Management of Companies and Enterprises 61,277 $124,803 1.42 20,162 4.1% 65,551 21,667 36,760 7,124 1.1%493 Warehousing and Storage 31,973 $44,140 1.51 15,849 7.1% 51,577 16,425 26,413 8,738 2.4%
512Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 14,824 $61,138 1.76 10,026 11.9% 22,070 8,903 10,920 2,247 1.4%
524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 54,715 $85,350 1.20 9,880 2.0% 61,613 21,539 32,807 7,267 1.3%624 Social Assistance 54,926 $26,566 0.68 9,416 1.9% 88,003 37,149 36,456 14,399 2.4%812 Personal and Laundry Services 48,907 $25,571 1.18 9,172 2.1% 70,317 30,922 31,426 7,969 1.5%445 Food and Beverage Stores 56,962 $24,514 1.00 8,206 1.6% 90,678 39,952 46,713 4,013 0.7%611 Educational Services 220,987 $51,627 0.94 7,979 0.4% 240,314 103,564 111,512 25,238 1.1%452 General Merchandise Stores 59,674 $24,379 1.03 7,360 1.3% 91,723 39,009 47,533 5,181 0.8%441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,999 $54,719 1.06 7,314 2.0% 54,788 19,533 29,677 5,578 1.3%
713Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 27,335 $21,638 0.74 6,419 2.7% 48,893 19,869 24,875 4,148 1.4%
485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 16,790 $35,025 0.89 5,937 4.5% 24,174 12,352 8,688 3,133 1.7%484 Truck Transportation 36,793 $52,011 1.20 5,737 1.7% 43,092 15,864 24,427 2,801 0.7%
518Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 11,614 $135,890 1.78 5,018 5.8% 12,965 3,629 7,139 2,198 1.7%
488 Support Activities for Transportation 18,716 $50,895 1.21 4,847 3.0% 24,086 8,139 12,828 3,119 1.6%
711Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 17,168 $57,964 1.06 4,591 3.2% 23,664 9,777 11,300 2,587 1.4%
999 Unclassified 6,955 $58,909 1.71 4,486 10.9% 9,292 3,527 4,818 947 1.3%531 Real Estate 42,568 $68,563 1.11 3,588 0.9% 50,033 21,247 23,373 5,413 1.2%623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 30,668 $31,531 0.47 3,534 1.2% 43,428 18,746 18,569 6,112 1.8%332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 15,857 $56,365 0.58 3,253 2.3% 17,193 5,779 10,874 540 0.3%
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Industry Snapshot in Gwinnett, 2019q1 JobsEQCurrent 10-Year History 10-Year Forecast
NAICS Industry EmplAvg Ann Wages LQ Empl Change Ann %
Total Demand Exits Transfers
Empl Growth
Ann % Growth
Total - All Industries 399,769 $51,586 1.00 53,765 1.5% 520,664 199,086 265,769 55,810 1.3%
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 36,151 $48,418 0.63 11,365 3.8% 48,258 18,815 19,472 9,971 2.5%
72 Accommodation and Food Services 34,177 $18,443 0.95 7,932 2.7% 64,503 26,261 33,051 5,191 1.4%
56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 34,130 $39,051 1.32 4,893 1.6% 48,333 18,036 24,466 5,830 1.6%
31 Manufacturing 29,531 $67,059 0.89 4,672 1.7% 30,687 11,357 19,388 -58 0.0%
44 Retail Trade 51,826 $33,908 1.24 4,111 0.8% 77,291 31,901 40,357 5,032 0.9%
54Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 31,586 $78,290 1.18 3,905 1.3% 36,162 11,068 18,558 6,535 1.9%
48 Transportation and Warehousing 13,450 $49,531 0.75 3,728 3.3% 16,713 6,436 8,635 1,641 1.2%
61 Educational Services 31,698 $42,524 0.97 3,725 1.3% 34,696 14,888 16,030 3,777 1.1%
81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 20,324 $32,711 1.17 3,243 1.8% 27,061 11,166 13,299 2,596 1.2%
23 Construction 31,293 $57,535 1.37 3,017 1.0% 39,145 11,979 21,408 5,758 1.7%
55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 8,936 $123,349 1.49 2,908 4.0% 9,749 3,180 5,396 1,172 1.2%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 5,020 $24,779 0.63 1,445 3.5% 8,285 3,383 4,149 753 1.4%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 7,702 $58,724 1.12 1,016 1.4% 9,337 3,798 4,518 1,021 1.3%
99 Unclassified 1,140 $45,040 2.65 642 8.6% 1,529 579 791 159 1.3%
21Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 101 $70,131 0.06 70 12.6% 105 34 69 2 0.2%
11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 367 $47,461 0.07 61 1.8% 463 181 238 44 1.1%
22 Utilities 466 $81,939 0.23 -73 -1.4% 501 161 284 56 1.1%
92 Public Administration 7,484 $56,245 0.40 -96 -0.1% 8,053 3,068 4,164 822 1.0%
42 Wholesale Trade 31,205 $70,348 2.05 -249 -0.1% 36,687 12,843 21,237 2,607 0.8%
52 Finance and Insurance 15,012 $75,810 0.95 -715 -0.5% 17,198 5,750 9,315 2,133 1.3%
51 Information 8,170 $88,711 1.04 -1,832 -2.0% 9,052 3,012 5,274 766 0.9%
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Jobs Posting Data
19,231
15,164
10,427
5,699
4,572
3,313
1,590
790
412
205
51
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Norcross, GA
Duluth, GA
Lawrenceville, GA
Suwanee, GA
Buford, GA
Snellville, GA
Lilburn, GA
Dacula, GA
North Metro, GA
Grayson, GA
Alpharetta, GA
The jobs are in the following locations2,616
2,341
2,073
1,899
1,403
1,330
1,304
1,176
1,141
850
809
794
737
642
626
626
593
573
531
528
499
449
440
438
436
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing,…
Retail Salespersons
Customer Service Representatives
Software Developers, Applications
Registered Nurses
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Managers, All Other
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Computer User Support Specialists
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal,…
Accountants
Human Resources Specialists
Sales Managers
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers,…
General and Operations Managers
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative…
Computer Systems Engineers/Architects
Automotive Specialty Technicians
Medical and Health Services Managers
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping…
Food Service Managers
Production Workers, All Other
The jobs are categorized into the following occupations
Sou
rce:
Bu
rnin
g G
lass
/Lab
or
Insi
ght
Oct
ob
er 2
01
9
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Metro Atlanta Employment by Sector
-100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities
Mining
Utilities
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Information
Government
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Finance and Insurance
Construction
Other Services, except Public Administration
Accommodation and Food Services
Educational services; private
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Retail Trade
2015 - 2050 Change in Employment by Industry (sorted by Total Employment in 2015)
2015 Change, 2015 - 2050
As the region ages, it should come as no surprise that the healthcare sector is forecast to grow the most, surpassing the retail sector as the largest by 2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Employment by County
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Employment Forecasts
Total Employment, 2015 Change: 2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ Note: Does not include Dawson
Employment Forecast GwinnettNAICS Sectors
9,208
9,616
9,351
13,793
15,474
27,900
22,601
29,249
35,453
34,097
33,124
38,454
38,473
35,820
42,938
51,496
59,482
1,447
1,405
2,829
2,923
3,533
(3,720)
4,589
5,872
5,216
6,635
11,004
14,119
27,822
31,622
27,498
20,404
24,751
(10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Utilities
Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities
Mining
Federal Military
Federal Civilian
Educational services; private
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Manufacturing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Other Services, except Public Administration
Accommodation and Food Services
State and Local
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Retail Trade
Gwinnett Employment Forecast
2,015 Change 2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Employment
Change, per mi²2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Express Lanes and Arterial Capacity Projects
• 140 additional miles ofexpress lane corridors
• 215 arterial capacity projectsadding almost 600 lane- milesto the network
32http://garc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=763e1a5273f740b8a1cef85ea52cc83eLink to View:
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
MILES OF NEW SERVICE*
Bus Rapid Transit (Freeway)Bus Rapid Transit (Arterial)Light Rail / StreetcarCommuter Rail
67 miles96 miles30 miles22 miles
* Based on initial planning concepts; subject to change
Transit ExpansionProgram
33http://garc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=763e1a5273
f740b8a1cef85ea52cc83e
Link to View:
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Project Programming by Program Area and Sub-Area6%
22%
59%
13%
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Estimated Investments through 2050
35
Investment Program Areas Percent of Total
Subtotals
MAINTENANCE & MODERNIZATION
Road and Bridge Preservation 28.5% $49.2 Billion
Road System Optimization and Safety 12.3% $21.3 Billion
Transit Operation and Capital Management (All Systems) 18.3% $31.6 Billion
MAINTENANCE & MODERNIZATION SUBTOTAL 59.2% $102.1
Billion
EXPANSION
Managed Lanes 9.4% $16.2 Billion
Interchange and Highway Expansion 6.4% $11.1 Billion
Transit Expansion 6.3% $10.9 Billion
EXPANSION SUBTOTAL 22.1% $38.2 Billion
Investment Program Areas Percent of Total
Subtotals
DEMAND MANAGEMENT
Walking, Bicycling, and LCI 3.0% $5.2 Billion
TDM and Other Programs and Initiatives 2.6% $4.5 Billion
DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUBTOTAL 5.6% $9.7 Billion
OTHER COSTS
Administrative Costs 10.4% $18.0 Billion
Unprogrammed Funding 2.7% $4.7 Billion
OTHER COSTS SUBTOTAL 13.2%$22.7 Billion
TOTAL INVESTMENTS 100% 172.6 Billion
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Transportation Infrastructure Funding
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Estimated Revenuesthrough 2050
Revenue Source Percent of Total SubtotalsFEDERAL
FHWA Formula Funding plus Adjustments 20.2% $34.9 BillionFHWA Discretionary Funding 0.2% $0.3 BillionFTA Formula Funding plus Adjustments 6.0% $10.3 BillionFEDERAL SUBTOTAL 26.4% $45.5 Billion
STATE
Region’s Share of Excise Taxes 26.0% $44.9 BillionRegion’s Share of Lodging Fees 2.5% $4.4 BillionRegion’s Share of Heavy Vehicle Impact Fees 0.2% $0.3 BillionRegion’s Share of Electric Vehicle Registration Fees 0.03% $0.05 BillionRegion’s Share of General Fund Appropriations 0.2% $0.4 BillionSTATE SUBTOTAL 29.0% $50.0 Billion
LOCAL
SPLOST Revenues 8.3% $14.3 BillionT-SPLOST Revenues 4.8% $8.2 BillionMARTA Sales Tax Revenues 14.3% $24.6 BillionMARTA Farebox and Other Revenue 4.2% $7.2 BillionCity and County General Funds 10.4% $18.0 BillionNon-MARTA Transit Agency Revenues 1.6% $2.8 BillionLOCAL SUBTOTAL 43.5% $75.1 Billion
PRIVATE
CIDs and Other Revenue 1.20% $2.0 BillionPRIVATE SUBTOTAL 1.20% $2.0 BillionTOTAL REVENUE 100.00% 172.6 Billion
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 10
Regionally Important Performance Measures
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 10
Regionally Important Performance Measures
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 10
Regionally Important Performance Measures
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 10
Regionally Important Performance Measures
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+ 10
Regionally Important Performance Measures
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Questions?’ Mike Alexander, AICP
Director,
Center for Livable Communities
Atlanta Regional Commission
http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.org/ http://33n.atlantaregional.com/
https://www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update/